This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
PSG vs Inter: Champions League Final Betting Preview
Meeting Saturday at Allianz Arena, PSG and Inter Milan are two somewhat surprising finalists for the 2024/25 Champions League title.
PSG went through an English gauntlet to make the Champions League final. They were +1500 to win it all at some places when the knockout stages began, but looking at their team, it's not a massive surprise.
After taking care of Brest, they controlled both matches against Liverpool and won on PKs. They had a little too much firepower against a hungry Aston Villa side. In the semifinals, they seceded some possession and opportunities but were more clinical than Arsenal.
Inter were similarly in the +1400 and +1500 range to win Champions League back in January. They were always viewed as the favorite in their first matchup, but not many expected them to keep winning.
Feyenoord weren't a match for the Italians on a bigger stage. Inter maybe didn't outplay Bayern Munich in the next round, but they won the opening leg in Germany 2-1 and that was enough. Finally, some of the best Champions League matches ever took place against Barcelona. While most don't view them as the better team, they capitalized on Barcelona's defensive inefficiencies in a ridiculous 7-6 aggregate.
All projected and confirmed lineups can be seen at the RotoWire lineup pages.
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Champions League Final Predictions for PSG vs. Inter
There's almost only one way this match will go from a playing style perspective. PSG will control possession and have more opportunities, while Inter will use their patented counterattack that dispatched the teams before them.
PSG had the majority of possession in almost every Champions League match this season. One of the more even games came in the second leg against Liverpool, though PSG still managed 54-percent possession at Anfield.
Arsenal were similarly on that level, though the possession numbers were adjusted because PSG were ahead in the tie almost the entire time. PSG still managed 52 percent at the Emirates despite being up a goal from the fourth minute. Arsenal had more possession in the second leg, but that was correlated to PSG being up two goals early in the first half.
Conversely, Inter never had more than 42-percent possession against Bayern or Barcelona and they didn't have more than 30 percent in either game against Barcelona, a team similar to PSG in terms of possession.
With the style of game being played already somewhat known, that's the best place to attack in terms of betting. More possession, and a lot of it in the attacking third, will lead to more corners and more shots.
Same Game Parlay Construction
Most importantly, I think PSG are more sound defensively and have a tad more cohesion than Inter's prior opponents in Bayern and Barcelona. Included in my same-game parlay is PSG moneyline but double chance can be taken for safety. I think PSG get the first goal and that they'll be strong enough to keep it.
I don't envision this being in the same range as the Inter and Barca matchups. If anything, it's closer to Inter's games against Bayern and maybe even PSG against Aston Villa. More so than any of PSG's recent UCL opponents, Villa played a low block that focused on counters. While the second leg was a bit wild because PSG were already up 3-1, the first leg feels like somewhat of a primer for this game.
PSG managed just 1.95 xG on 29 shots in that game, while Villa only had two decent chances en route to seven shots and .74 xG. There's always the chance Inter convert on their two or three chances, which they have been doing, but I'm not taking that route.
It's a massive stage where teams often play a little safer, so under 2.5 goals at about even odds is favorable. Even better, only one team has scored in each of the last six UCL finals. Since you're looking for a similar 1-0 or 2-0 result to PSG in this bet, the under 2.5 returns more money than no on both teams to score.
These bets can be the backbone to any SGP composed, whether it's PSG double chance or under 3.5 goals, you can get as safe as you want.
UEFA Champions League odds can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings promo code page for a deposit bonus.
Betting on Player Shot Props
Some sites won't allow you to parlay team shots, but PSG over 16 shots at -115 is my prefered bet. If I can find under 12.5 shots for Inter at even odds, I will be betting that, as well.
In terms of finding the best odds on player shot props, that's the tricky part. I don't want to touch Bradley Barcola or Desire Doue because in addition to not knowing who will start, the starter could be off at 60 minutes. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has the most intriguing odds with three-plus shots at -130 compared to Ousmane Dembele at four-plus shots for -135.
Kvaratskhelia goes almost 90 minutes in every important match and has taken at least three shots in five of his last six in UCL. The lone time he didn't was the second leg against Arsenal where PSG played a bit more defensive already up two goals.
I also like Achraf Hakimi at -105 for two-plus shots because you know he'll be ripping shots in a big game. Similar to Kvara, he's had at least two shots in five of his last six UCL starts with the lone loss being the first leg against Arsenal.
Betting on Player Tackle Props
Joao Neves averaged 1.51 tackles won per 90 in league play and 2.53 tackles won per 90 in Champions League. The numbers either suggest competition is more difficult in UCL or he tackles a little more in a bigger games. He failed to win two tackles in just two of 15 UCL starts and if this match is as defensive as I'm leading on, he should attempt plenty of tackles. He's -190 for two-plus tackles won and +160 for three or more.
Betting on Corner Props
For the final piece, a simple PSG over 5.5 corners at -130 adds a bit more juice. As long as PSG don't score in the first 30 minutes, I think they should be in a good position to rack up corners early and often.
If you want to get spicy, Inter under 3.5 corners is -105, though that's tricky if also betting PSG to win.
PSG to have the most corners in the match is -235 for a safer bet.
UCL Final, PSG vs. Inter Betting Picks; Saturday, May 31
- PSG to win +120
- Under 2.5 goals -110
- 'No' on both teams to score +110
- PSG 16+ shots -115
- PSG race to 7 corners +155
- PSG -2.5 Corners +110
- Hakimi 1+ shot on target +170
- Kvaratskhelia 3+ shots -130
- Neves 3+ tackles +160
- SGP: PSG Double Chance & Under 2.5 goals +131
- SGP: PSG to win & Under 2.5 goals & PSG over 5.5 corners & Hakimi 2+ shots & Kvara 3+ shots & Neves 2+ tackles +6500
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