2025 Cincinnati Open: Top First-Round Upsets, Locks, and Value Bets
First-round play begins Thursday at the Cincinnati Open. All 32 seeds in both the men's and women's singles draws have byes into the second round, so Thursday's hard-court action will feature only unseeded players. A former women's champion here will look to turn back the clock as a heavy underdog, while one of the game's rising stars makes his Cincinnati Open debut.
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All men's and women's singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Yafan Wang (+150) vs. Peyton Stearns
Stearns' loss to 45-year-old Venus Williams in Washington for Venus' first win in nearly two years showed the 22-year-old American is still inconsistent enough to lose to any opponent, and it continued a rough stretch in which Stearns has gone 1-6, with her only win coming over an opponent ranked outside the top 300. While Stearns is capable of controlling play with her big forehand against the 132nd-ranked Wang, the American's lack of confidence and poor form makes her susceptible to an upset.
Caroline Garcia (+280) vs. Sonay Kartal
The fast hard courts in Cincinnati are ideal for Garcia's aggressive game style, which is why she broke through for a title here back in 2022. The 31-year-old Frenchwoman's level has dropped since then, as she has dipped nearly outside the top 200. Nonetheless, these conditions could help Garcia pull off an upset here against Kartal, who will be playing her first tournament since Wimbledon and may require an adjustment period as the Brit gets back on the road and switches back to hard courts.
Honorable Mention
Alycia Parks (+195) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Cincinnati Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Matteo Arnaldi (-200) vs. Benjamin Bonzi
Arnaldi has established a solid floor as a top-50 player hovering above the .500 mark. He's currently ranked No. 41 and is 17-16 in 2025, including 10-8 on hard courts. Meanwhile, Bonzi has struggled to a 7-14 record in ATP Tour-level matches this year, and the 66th-ranked Frenchman is just 6-15 in his last 21 matches overall, as even match wins at the Challenger level have been hard to come by.
Joao Fonseca (-225) vs. Yunchaokete Bu
Fonseca has already cracked the top 50, and the talented Brazilian should continue to rocket up the rankings, as he has all the makings of an elite player. He won a hard-court Challenger event early in 2025 and claimed the Next Gen ATP Finals title on this surface to close out 2024, so Fonseca has demonstrated hard-court success as part of his strong all-court game. Given Bu's 7-20 record in 2025, he's unlikely to withstand Fonseca's barrage of blistering forehands.
Honorable Mention
Maya Joint (-300) vs. Greet Minnen
Cincinnati Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Gael Monfils (-165) vs. Nishesh Basavareddy
Monfils is nearly twice Basavareddy's age, but the 38-year-old Frenchman still looks like the far better player compared to the 20-year-old American. Monfils has a strong 14-6 hard-court record in 2025, while Basavareddy's only 4-10 in all ATP Tour matches in 2025. They played twice early in the year, with Monfils winning both matchups.
Jenson Brooksby (-150) vs. Alexandre Muller
Brooksby's ranked 62 spots behind Muller at No. 102, but those rankings are deceiving. The 24-year-old American's still rebuilding his ranking after a suspension, and Brooksby was previously ranked as high as No. 33. Muller picked up most of his ranking points earlier in the year but has gone into a tailspin recently, as the Frenchman's 2-7 in his last nine matches, including a recent 6-0, 6-1 loss to compatriot Corentin Moutet in Washington.
Honorable Mention
Damir Dzumhur (+135) vs. Mattia Bellucci
