This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
French Open 2025: American Favorites to Watch in Round Four
The fourth round of the French Open continues Monday from the clay courts of Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France. All eight of Monday's singles matches have a clear favorite and underdog, and two of the underdogs stand out from the rest of the field in their bids to deliver upsets. Three top-seven American seeds will be in action on the women's side, and one could face a far stiffer test than the other two.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, while the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites.
French Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Tallon Griekspoor (+550) vs. Alexander Zverev
Griekspoor has consistently played Zverev tough in recent meetings. Three of their last five encounters came down to a deciding set tiebreak, including one that Griekspoor won in Indian Wells this year and last year's clash at the French Open, in which Zverev had to come back from two breaks down in the fifth set. Their most recent matchup on clay in Munich was about as close as it gets without requiring a tiebreak in the final set, as Zverev escaped with a 6-7 (6), 7-6 (3), 6-4 victory. Given the narrow margins separating these two in recent meetings, Griekspoor's odds understate his chances of upsetting the No. 3 seed, especially given Zverev's lackluster form in recent months. Zverev has taken five losses to players ranked outside the top 30 in 2025.
Ekaterina Alexandrova (+230) vs. Coco Gauff
Gauff's easy draw has helped her get away with putrid serving numbers, but the No. 2 seed could be in trouble if she doesn't up her game against Alexandrova, who is likely to do a much better job taking care of her own serve compared to Gauff's previous opponents. Guaff was broken a combined nine times in her last two matches by 172nd-ranked Tereza Valentova and 47th-ranked Marie Bouzkova. She managed to steady herself and pull both out in straight sets by frequently breaking right back, but doing so would be much tougher against the 20th-seeded Alexandrova, who gets plenty of free points with her big serve and has been broken only four times in three matches while producing five breaks per match. Gauff has a 3-1 edge in their head-to-head, but this will be their first meeting on clay. While Gauff's superior defense gives her a much higher floor, Alexandrova's willingness to take risks allows the Russian to occasionally raise her game against top players. If Gauff continues to struggle serving, that could provide the opening Alexandrova needs to step into the court early in rallies and get in position to blast past Gauff's court coverage.
French Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Madison Keys (-380) vs. Hailey Baptiste
Keys survived a scare against fellow American Sofia Kenin in the third round, fighting off three match points in a 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 win. Players tend to swing more freely after such escapes, and a more relaxed Keys is bad news for the field given her elite combination of power and confidence, which has helped the No. 7 seed race out to a 10-0 start in Grand Slam play this year. Her 70th-ranked compatriot Baptiste is enjoying a breakout Grand Slam performance, as Baptiste was just 3-7 in Grand Slam main-draw matches prior to this tournament, but Keys' mix of power and placement will likely prove too much to handle for Baptiste's subpar court coverage. Baptiste won the first time they played back in 2019, but Keys responded with wins in both 2023 and 2024, and Keys dominated their only previous clay-court matchup, 6-1, 6-2.
Jessica Pegula (-650) vs. Lois Boisson
Pegula does a good job of not getting caught up in opponent's narratvies, as she showed by mercilessly ending Alexandra Eala's Cinderella run in Miami this year after Eala took out Keys and Iga Swiatek. Boisson's another Cinderella story, but the third-seeded American is ready to turn the 361st-ranked Frenchwoman back into a pumpkin. While this has been an unforgettable Grand Slam main draw debut for the 22-year-old Boisson, the cracks in her game started to show in the third round against Elsa Jacquemot, as Boisson lost the second set 6-0 in that match. With some tape coming out on Boisson during this run, Pegula should be well prepared to exploit Boisson's weaknesses while keeping constant pressure on with aggressive returns of serve. Boisson upset No. 24 seed Elise Mertens in the first round, but it takes a different level of performance to knock off a top-three seed in the second week of a major.
Honorable Mention
Mirra Andreeva (-425) vs. Daria Kasatkina
