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According to the Data: Projecting Wide Receiver Production Based on Age

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.

Projecting Wide Receiver Production Based on Age

After a 2011 season in which he participated in only seven games and tied his career-low for touchdowns, Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson exploded for 112 receptions and 1,598 yards in 2012. The breakout wasn't really too surprising for one of the game's elite receivers; Johnson had three prior 100-catch seasons and two years with at least 1,500 yards. We know that Johnson won't be able to continue his dominance forever, but when will his decline strike?

Over the past few weeks, I've examined the age of decline for running backs and quarterbacks. I found that running backs enter the NFL at near peak efficiency, and it's usually a gradual decline from there. Meanwhile, quarterbacks can play at a high level well into their 30s. Looking at the numbers, the career outl

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