This article is part of our MLB Betting series.
Previous article: 2-2, 2.63 RW Bucks
Season: 94-100-8, -14.75 RW Bucks
I was able to make a bit of a dent in my seasonal deficit with a big bet on a pitcher last time out, and I'll be looking to make a couple of similar big moves for Friday night's ALCS Game 1 showdown.
Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros 8:07pm ET
The Pick: Astros -1.5 (+140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 4 RW Bucks
Secondary Pick: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 on BETMGM Sportsbook) for 2 RW Bucks
The Astros are between -140 and -150 favorites at multiple sportsbooks and took five of seven games from the Red Sox during the regular season, including three of four at Minute Maid Park. Houston sported a margin of victory of five runs or greater in four of its wins over Boston, and Valdez went 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 18:2 K:BB against the Red Sox across 14.1 innings over two starts. Boston had a pedestrian .239 average and .310 wOBA against lefties on the road during the second half of the regular season as well.
Houston is 53-30 straight up at home overall this season and postseason with an average margin of victory of 1.3 runs there. Meanwhile, Sale was not only decimated by the Rays in his one playoff start thus far, but he also pitched to a 4.61 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road. He also has allowed a .323/.344/.645 slash line to Altuve with four XBH in 32 career encounters, and the Astros' second baseman slugged four homers off Red Sox pitching this season while posting a .295 average and .929 OPS at home overall. He also checks into the series hot, having generated a .313 average and 1.101 OPS in the four-game ALDS against the White Sox.