This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 1-1, 1.44 RWBucks
Season: 101-109-8, -12.46 RWBucks
We came one run away on the part of the Braves for going 2-0 for the second consecutive installment, but I'll look to bounce back in Game 3 with what I see as two wagers with plenty of viability due to the pitching matchup.
Astros at Braves World Series Game 3
The Pick: Braves Over 4 total runs (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Braves to Score First and Win (+185 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Garcia was knocked around by the White Sox and Red Sox in his first two postseason turns for a total of 10 earned runs across just 3.2 innings. He bounced back brilliantly against Boston in the decisive Game 6 of that series a week ago, twirling 5.2 scoreless innings during which he racked up seven strikeouts.
However, while Garcia generated a 2.39 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 at home this season, he posted a 4.24 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 1.3 HR/9 on the road. He was also particularly vulnerable to left-handed hitters when traveling (.302 BAA, .374 wOBA), and the Braves happen to roll out a pretty potent trio of them in Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman and the switch-hitting Ozzie Albies, not to mention Joc Pederson if he finds his way into the lineup.
Atlanta has struggled to score runs at times this postseason, but they've averaged 5.0 per contest at home including the postseason, including the eight-most runs per first 5 innings per home game and the fourth-most first-inning runs per home game (0.78). Garcia could certainly find the spotlight a bit bright here in a jam-packed Truist Park, leading to Atlanta getting an early jump on him and putting up some runs overall.