This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: Saturday, May 3rd
Kyson Witherspoon was NAILS last night, finishing seven-shutty with eight punchies as Oklahoma wins. The slate isn't great this weekend to be honest, so I really had to dig deep on games that I like and would even consider betting. This Saturday is brutal out here, but I think I found a diamond in the rough.
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UCLA Bruins (-154) @ USC Trojans (+120) | Total: 13
The Big 10 matchup here is between two teams likely to make the NCAA Tournament. UCLA, however, is the one that actually has a chance to host as they are projected to be one of the final three or four programs to have that privilege. We were on the Bruins Friday evening and they came home in a tight one-run contest. How does the encore go?
I talked on my podcast, Breaking Bet, about my handicap of the series Thursday evening. UCLA was where I felt the strongest about for Game One for sure. A sweep was more than possible in this battle of LA, but I felt if the Trojans were going to get one, it would be on Saturday when Caden Aoki took the bumpski.
USC Trojans' Caden Aoki: The Key to Saturday's Game
Aoki was huge for USC last season, but coming into 2025, he slid back from the Friday ace role to the Saturday spot in favor of Caden Hunter. Aoki hasn't been as effective as he was a year ago, but it's still been a solid year for him. While his ERA says 4.71, it's a touch inflated thanks to some misfortune. His 2.95 SIERA tells us he's been a lot better than the numbers. The staple of his game is pristine command. The 63 K/8 BB ratio in 65 IP is awesome, which is why USC has had a chance to win in nearly every one of his 2025 starts.
Roch Cholowsky's Impact on UCLA Bruins' Offense
UCLA's offense isn't sexy or dominant, but it's a good compliment to a strong pitching staff. That of course doesn't mean they lack studs. Bruin SS Roch Cholowsky has enjoyed a breakout season as he runs point on this lineup. His .369 avg, 1.270 OPS, and 16 bombs have set the pace for the rest of the offense. Cholowsky is trending as a mid first rounder next summer. Additionally, Mulivai Levu (.332 avg/.951 OPS/10 HR) and AJ Salgado (.316 avg/1.097 OPS/11 HR) have helped provide some firepower.
For Aoki, the big chore is neutralizing those three hitters, but Cholowsky above all else. They're a decent contact, decent power, and decent speed team. But giving up a long ball to any of them in this projected pitcher's duel could be fatal.
Betting Insights: UCLA Bruins vs USC Trojans Showdown
The Bruins have shuffled their weekend rotation this season. But because they're fairly deep, tweaking different rotation combos hasn't hurt them. Michael Barnett has settled in the Saturday role for the last couple of months and done a fine job. His 4.01 ERA, 51 K/11 BB ratio in 49.1 innings will more than play. Something to note though; prior to last week's six-shutty against Penn State, he got touched up a bit.
Oregon got him for three earned over 4.2 innings, San Diego for three earned over 5 innings, and Purdue for five earned over 2 innings. There's been some lackluster performances on Barnett's part. The interesting thing about UCLA and USC is they're built extremely similarly, which may also have something to do with why they've projected around the same throughout the year.
For USC, they also are decent at everything without standing out in one area. Instead of Cholowsky, they have stud Ethan Hedges as their version. The two-way player has been a wrecking ball at the dish with his .363 avg, 11 tanks, and 1.145 OPS, while also contributing 8 saves. After Hedges, there are a few other contributors that may be able to change the game.
This series should be tight throughout. While I do believe USC has their best chance on Saturday, it's a little safer taking their run line. The under also merits a solid look as well.
Pick: USC +1.5 -120 (DK)
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