2025 Home Run Derby Bet Bets: Analyzing the Field using Statcast Data
The Home Run Derby takes place tonight at Truist Park here in Atlanta. I briefly considered going, but after seeing it'd run me about $2,500 to put myself in harm's way of an Oneil Cruz missile, I decided to just write about the Derby instead.
Below, I break down each participant's strengths and weaknesses for this event, and how their skills fit within the confines of Truist Park. Big shoutout to Baseball Savant for the incredible amount of easily digestible data that made this article possible.
Use RotoWire to see constantly updated MLB odds and MLB futures, including World Series odds. The DraftKings promo code gets new players a generous welcome offer that can be used on the Home Run Derby.
2025 MLB Home Run Derby Odds
- Cal Raleigh, +295
- Oneil Cruz, +340
- James Wood, +450 -> +400
- Matt Olson, +800
- Brent Rooker, +850
- Byron Buxton, +900
- Jazz Chisholm, +1200
- Junior Caminero +1200
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET
Truist Park Park Factors
Cash in on the best sportsbook promos for the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game such as the BetMGM bonus code.
Home Run Derby Participants
Cal Raleigh, +295
Your current home run leader, Raleigh comes into the Derby with 38 taters in 94 games. Raleigh is the new record holder for most home runs by a catcher before the All-Star break. He achieved that over three weeks ago and nine hours ago. That goes to show just how remarkable this season has been from Big Dumper so far.
Not surprisingly, Raleigh is the odds-on favorite to win the Derby tonight at just under 3/1. He is crushing the ball. He's got 90th percentile bat speed and ranks 98th percentile in barrel rate. 22 of Raleigh's 38 homers have come from the left side, and that sets up well given that this park favors left-handed hitters for home runs (+5%). That's especially helpful when Raleigh is literally the best at pulling the ball in the air in all of baseball (37.6%)
I hate to be a wet blanket, but +295 is just not a great price on a Derby winner. There are alternative markets such as home run distance (454.5, -110 both ways) and Max EV (+1000), but those are tough odds on the distance, and there are at least a few participants who project better in terms of exit velo.
Oneil Cruz, +340
Cruz might be the most important piece of the puzzle tonight. Either the books are going to make a ton off the Cruz action, or the public will. A player with Cruz's outrageous tools is bound to garner tons of interest in a competition like this, even if his statistical performance lags behind some of the other participants.
Average bat speed? #1 at 78.6 MPH. Max EV? #1 at 122.9 MPH. Average exit velo? Also #1 at 96.3.
There are warts to Cruz's profile, but I'm not sure how much they'll apply in this environment. Every pitch he gets a hold of Monday is likely leaving the park and in a hurry. I'd be interested in a ticket on Cruz winning the Home Run Derby (+330). Although it's juiced up, I'd consider plays on Cruz for the highest Exit Velo (+115) and longest distance (+155).
James Wood, +400
Wood has been sensational in his first full season in the bigs. He's popped 24 homers and his Statcast metrics really don't lag too far behind the likes of Oneil Cruz.
He's in the 95th percentile or better in expected slugging, average exit velo, barrel rate, hard hit rate and bat speed. As you can see in the chart above, Wood can get the ball out to all parts of the field. It may be more optimal to just pepper the Chop House in Atlanta (right field), but Wood can muscle it out to center and to the opposite field, too.
Wood is the batter I'll have the most interest in tonight. He's the complete package who can win something like this. Whereas Cruz is much more boom-or-bust, the floor seems to be much higher for Wood. You can bet on Wood to make the Finals at +220 and win the event at +400. That price has been steamed up since this morning, when it was posted at +450.
Wood is the only player who really rivals Cruz in the statcast markets like distance (+350) and exit velo (+290), if those are of interest to you.
Matt Olson, +800
Olson gets the advantage of playing in his home park. The lefty slugger shouldn't be discounted in this spot, even with just 17 homers on the year thus far. If he played all of his games in Atlanta, he would have 19 home runs on the year. Olson's average exit velo, barrel rate and hard hit rate all rank in the 94th percentile or better.
Part of Olson's power numbers lagging behind this year has been his pull AIR% dropping from an above-average clip of 20% or better for seven of the last eight years to just 14.8 percent this year. He's been using the opposite field more, and that makes it tougher to get the ball out.
In this environment, though, the pull should be back for Olson and so should the quality of contact. Don't completely write the hometown guy off. If you don't like him to win the whole thing, his price to make the finals at +310 is palatable.
Brent Rooker, +850
Finally, a right-hander! Rooker strolls into tonight with 20 taters to his credit, which is a figure that is right in line with what it would be by xHR at Truist Park. Put another way, the park works neither for or against Rooker in this setup. Rooker isn't quite the Statcast demon that some of the other participants are, but he's still well above average in the areas that matter for the Home Run Derby.
Rooker has a slightly above average pull rate (20.5%), but as we can see from the chart, when he does pull the ball in the air, it usually goes a long way.
All things considered, though, I'd steer my action towards a lefty to win the Derby.
Byron Buxton, +900
If I were to go after a righty tonight, it'd be Buxton. He's got the Statcast profile that overrides the park factors that are working against the right-handed batters tonight. Huge max EV and hard hit numbers to go with premium bat speed (90th percentile) have me thinking that Buxton has a shot as a dark horse.
It's interesting to me that Buxton has 16 home runs that are "no-doubters" by Statcast data. That means a home run in all 30 parks. That's tied with Raleigh for the most among Home Run Derby participants. Simply put, Buxton can mash regardless of the park factors. His raw power is probably top three among the participants tonight and I think he's being underrated.
I'd take a stab at him winning it at 9/1 and would be interested in his Statcast-driven markets like distance (+450) and exit velo (+1400). Buxton is also +380 to be a finalist, for what it's worth.
Jazz Chisholm, +1200
Chisholm is the "surprise" entrant from this group but his resume is legit upon further inspection. He has 17 home runs, and that number would be 20 if all of his games were played at Truist. So, we can expect the park to help Chisholm's case a bit tonight. He's well above league average at pulling the ball in the air (21.6%) and generates quality contact with a 97th percentile barrel rate.
If you're leaning on bright red Statcast metrics to guide your betting decision tonight, Chisholm probably isn't your guy. However, he has a swing that will serve him well at Truist Park. Don't be surprised if Chisholm makes some noise tonight.
Junior Caminero, +1200
Last up, we have Caminero from the Rays. He's a longshot at +1200, and his being right-handed could be something that works against him a bit at Truist. However, don't just skip Caminero before locking in your bets tonight. If you want primo bat speed, look no further. Caminero has 100th percentile bat speed and can muscle the ball out to any part of the yard. That's important
As you can see in the spray chart, Caminero doesn't just need to pull the ball to get it out. He can use the whole field thanks to that aforementioned bat speed that generated immense exit velo. He has topped out at 116.5 MPH off the bat this year and reached 425 feet with his max distance.
I might steer clear of Caminero to have the top distance, considering the reach some of the other participants have shown, but +800 to record the highest exit velo is interesting given the Rays slugger's penchant for letting it rip.
