MLB Barometer: Sizzlers and Fizzlers

April showers bring May flowers, what goes up must come down and all that jazz. Though one month of action doesn't unlock the mysteries of the remainder of the season, it does lay out some clues of what type of year-end production we can expect from certain players. Sure, we've got some April fakers who are worth selling high on, but many seasons, a hot April sets the tone for breakout campaigns. From my list of April risers from 2014, only Abraham Almonte turned out to be a faker, while Anthony Rendon, Jose Abreu, Nelson Cruz and Devin Mesoraco ran with their momentum throughout the entire season.

Taking a break from my weekly heartfelt anecdotal shtick, let's take a look at which categories certain players fall into, per offensive position:

1. Surprise April performance with momentum that carries throughout the year
2. Surprise April performance that will fizzle
3. Cold April followed by a hot May
4. Career-season in progress

1. Sizzler - Stephen Vogt (OAK)
2. Fizzler - A.J. Pierzynski (ATL)
3. Hot May - Yasmani Grandal (LAD), Wilson Ramos (WAS)
4. Career Year - Derek Norris (SD)

First Base

1. Sizzler - Kendrys Morales (KC)
2. Fizzler - Mark Canha (OAK)
3. Hot May - Adam LaRoche (CHW), Jose Abreu (CHW)
4. Career Year - Paul Goldschmidt (ARI)

Second Base

1. Sizzler - Devon Travis (TOR)
2. Fizzler - DJ LeMahieu (COL)
3. Hot May - Kolten Wong (STL), Neil Walker (PIT)
4. Career Year - Howie Kendrick (LAD)

Third Base

1. Sizzler - Mike Moustakas (KC)
2. Fizzler - David Freese (LAA)
3. Hot May - Adrian Beltre (TEX), Kyle Seager (SEA)
4. Career Year - Nolan Arenado (COL)

Shortstop

1. Sizzler - Zack Cozart (CIN)
2. Fizzler - Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA)
3. Hot May - Chris Owings (ARI), Jung-Ho Kang (PIT)
4. Career Year - Starlin Castro (CHC)

Outfield

1. Sizzlers - Jake Marisnick (HOU), Wil Myers (SD), Lorenzo Cain (KC)
2. Fizzlers - Norichika Aoki (SF), Chris Young (NYY), Colby Rasmus (HOU)
3. Hot May - Avisail Garcia (CHW), Jason Heyward (STL), Jayson Werth (WAS)
4. Career Year - Bryce Harper (WAS), Corey Dickerson (COL), Juan Lagares (NYM)

Risers

Josh Reddick (OF, OAK) - Just stay healthy, man! That's what A's fans and his fantasy owners are thinking. Reddick was one of baseball's hottest hitters in Week 4, hitting three homers, scoring eight runs, and driving in 12 all while hitting .478 (11-for-23) in six games against the Angels and Rangers. He is now hitting .391 since coming off the disabled list on April 12. Reddick's career year was in 2012 - his first season with the A's - where he won a Gold Glove and crushed 32 long balls despite hitting .242. He has missed 101 games over the last two seasons primarily dealing with a wrist injury which quite obviously affected his power. Though Reddick did show a quick flash of his old power hitting five homers in back-to-back August games last year. Reddick underwent surgery on the wrist after last season and had several months to recover. Though his batting average will never be elite, it should be noted that Reddick is striking out at a seven percent clip. His BB % is nearly ten percent through 18 games, though Reddick has always shown the ability to take a walk. A second 30 home run season is definitely within reach and the A's lefty should continue to drive in runs and has a chance to reach triple-digits for the first time in his career. Here's hoping the wrist issues are a concern of the past. Just stay healthy, man!

Evan Gattis (C, HOU) - The peaks and troughs are what you get when you're swimming in his ocean, so just enjoy the wave and ride it in. The bearded slugger known as El Oso Blanco led all hitters with five homers in Week 4, all of them coming in the weekend series against the Mariners. That's five home runs in his last seven at-bats. After an 0-for-20 slide to start the season, there was definitely an air of panic among owners who took Gattis as the fourth catcher off draft boards, within the first 100 picks. He is striking out in a third of his at-bats, still hitting under the Mendoza Line and is a .246 hitter over the course of his career. But the go-big-or-go-home guy may prove to be a fantasy asset even with a subpar batting average. Most importantly, Gattis slots in as a catcher in most fantasy formats and will likely never have to crouch down behind the plate this season. Who's to say that Gattis can't put up Chris Carter 2014 numbers and flirt with 40 home runs this year? He may not even be the only hitter on his team to finish the year top five in the AL in home runs and strikeouts. Nevertheless, the Astros are in first place in the AL West, on a 10-game winning streak and are a fun bunch to watch. Gattis is one of the primary reasons.

Travis Wood (LHP, CHC) - The former Reds prospect has looked good through four starts this year - two wins, a 1.06 WHIP and a 26:6 strikeouts-to-walk ratio in 23.2 innings pitched. I actually forget that Wood was an All-Star in 2013, finishing the year with solid ratios (3.11 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) in the only 200 IP season of his career. Last season was a disaster though (5.03, 1.53) as Wood was blown up for 4 ER or more in 10 of his 31 starts. Wood's K/9 has hovered below 7.0 for most of his career, but the 9.9 early on may largely be due to an adjusted grip and partially due to a minor velocity increase, though the fastball still does not hit 90 mph. Wood has had losing records in all three of his seasons with the Cubs, but that may change this season as run support is easier to come by for Cubs starting pitchers these days. We should still be weary of the blowup outings, but perhaps Wood can minimize those in his age-28 season. If you picked him up this week, you might as well use him. Though at STL and at MLW looks scary on paper, those squads are ranked 27^th and 30^th in OPS against left-handed pitchers so far in this young season. Though I am typically scared of and stay away from Travis Wood, I like what I see this year and added him where available over names like Chris Heston, David Phelps (who goes twice this week), Jarred Cosart and young, hyped Braves rookie Mike Foltynewicz.

Alex Colome (RHP, TB) - Colome looked great in his first start of the season last week, striking out six and allowing just three hits over five innings against the mighty Orioles. Colome came up through the Rays organization and made his major league debut in 2013, starting three games. Last year, he was suspended 50 games for steroid use and returned in September, pitching well in two games (no earned runs in 13 innings) but allowed four earnies in a relief appearance. This spring, Colome got a late start dealing with pneumonia and visa issues, allowing Nathan Karns to win the final spot. Rays management apparently prefer to see Colome in the rotation and Karns in middle relief, and with Alex Cobb expected to return soon, it's up to Colome to prove that he belongs there. Colome throws hard (97 mph max-velocity on his fastball) and has been good at keeping longballs from flying out of minor league yards. Colome is an ideal waiver wire addition in 15-teamers, and could become 12-team material once we know that he can stick in the rotation. I would personally drop any Red Sox starting pitcher not named Joe Kelly for him. Speaking of the Red Sox, the Rays head to Boston as Colome gets a tough challenge against that explosive offense on Wednesday.

Honorable Mentions

• Joc Pederson (OF, LAD)
• Wil Myers (OF, SD)
• Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE)
• Shelby Miller (RHP, ATL)
• Jason Hammel (RHP, CHC)
• Carlos Frias (RHP, LAD)

• Kelly Johnson (UT, ATL)
• Adeiny Hechavarria (SS, MIA)
• Josh Collmenter (RHP, ARI)

Ian Desmond (SS, WAS) - Desmond has had a rough first month and the offense will surely pick up at some point, as it will with the rest of the Nats hitters not named Harper (Bryce has been en fuego). Through 25 games (108 plate appearances), Desmond has just one home run, five runs batted in and is hitting .222/287/.323. He also has nine errors and is on pace for a career high, but that doesn't matter as much to us here. Desmond is the only major league hitter to have hit 20 homers and stolen 20 bases for three consecutive seasons - partly because Mike Trout stole just 18 bases last year and Carlos Gomez was one homer shy of 20 in 2013. There's no doubt Desmond has fantasy value. But will he be worth his second round pick this year? Desmond is 29-years-old and it's quite possible that his skills are on the decline. Last year he took a 25 point dive in batting average (.255) from the previous year (.280) - part of that due to a surge in strikeout-rate (28 percent last season, 21 percent the three seasons prior) and one glaring weakness - the inability to make contact on swings up in the zone and higher as in previous seasons. We may still see close to 20 home runs again, but it's quite possible he falls short on the steals. Desmond just hasn't been running this year - just one attempt thus far, and he was caught stealing. Every season there are a handful of players who fail to reach value in the first couple rounds of fantasy drafts. This year, it feels like Desmond is one of those guys.

Adam Eaton (OF, CHW) - This Barometer column has done wonders for players featured on the Fallers list, so perhaps a new month inspires better production from Eaton. He was flat awful in April - drafted by many as a mid to late round contributor to runs, batting average and stolen bases (myself included), Eaton has just one stolen base, no home runs and no runs batted in. Eaton came to the White Sox in a three-way trade in the winter before the 2014 season and finished with 76 runs and 15 stolen bases in 123 games (538 PA). This winter, there were whispers of 30-plus stolen base potential as he worked with former speedster Vince Coleman who was hired to help White Sox players with base-running. But Coleman can't help if Eaton isn't getting on base. Middle of the lineup mashers Jose Abreu and Adam LaRoche have been frigid as well and the White Sox have struggled. It's only a matter of time until they all heat it up, but fantasy owners may get impatient possibly having to wait until the summer. Eaton has made good contact throughout the minors and majors - his .300 average last year was not simply BABIP-induced. Eaton will come around, and many of us didn't pay too high of a price. Runs and batting average should be where he contributes, while we hold out hope for the SBs as well.

Craig Kimbrel (RP, SD) - Perhaps my concern is irrational because I rarely draft closers early and own Kimbrel in the NFBC Main Event. Most likely, April will just be a long forgotten blip on the fabulous career of fantasy's top closer over the last few years (185 saves over four seasons). But Kimbrel has not been as automatic over the last couple of weeks. He does have seven saves and has yet to blow one for his new Padres squad, but Kimbrel has now allowed earned runs in four of his last six appearances (six total) and enters Week 5 with a 5.04 ERA (his career ERA is 1.54). With the bomb given up to the Rockies' Charlie Blackmon yesterday, Kimbrel has allowed as many home runs (two) as he had all of last season - the other one this year was to the Rockies' Nick Hundley. There does not appear to be any signs of fatigue or hidden injury, so we can just file this one under "he's human." When perfection is consistently expected, any outcome to the contrary is always examined under a microscope - let's hope that's all it is.

Aaron Sanchez (P, TOR) - It's difficult to live up to big expectations as a rookie. Not every live young arm can come out and dominate every outing like Jose Fernandez. With Sanchez, baby steps in middle relief may be way to go. Daniel Norris was sent down to the Triple-A affiliate last week and manager John Gibbons discussed moving Sanchez to middle relief. The Blue Jays will experiment with Marco Estrada in place of Norris, so that tells us all we need to know about the Blue Jays' rotation depth. Though Sanchez has a wicked fastball and two-seamer that flies in the mid to high 90s, he has not been able to harness his control, walking 15 batters over the past three games (16.2 IP). Sanchez is just 22-years-old with a bright future ahead of him. Fantasy owners in 12-team leagues have been rushing to drop Sanchez. Pitching in the AL East and calling Rogers Centre home certainly stacks the box against him, but Marcus Stroman handled it admirably as a rookie.  It's hard to stash and hold a guy who has walked six or more batters twice in a week's span, but on teams with deep enough benches, he may be worth holding on to.

Dishonorable Mentions

• Leonys Martin (OF, TEX)
• Victor Martinez (DH, DET)
• CJ Cron (DH, LAA)
• Alfredo Simon (RHP, DET)
• Jered Weaver (RHP, LAA)

• Jose Abreu (1B, CHW)
• Andrew McCutchen (OF, PIT)
• Shane Greene (RHP, DET)