After yesterday's massive main slate, Saturday's main at FanDuel has half as many games to sort through, with seven going off between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. With only three pay up options on the mound, we'll likely see a lot of similar lineups taking chalky options.
The Reds, who lost to the Rockies Friday, are again the slate's biggest favorite at (-310), followed by the Brewers at (-255). That Reds-Rockies game has the highest total at 10.5, with all other totals sitting at 8.0 or greater. The afternoon start times have us looking hot and dry throughout, and there's the potential for double-digit winds in Cincinnati, San Francisco and Chicago.
Pitching
Garrett Crochet, BOS vs. TB ($10,700): I'm expecting many to take Brandon Woodruff ($9,800) as the discounted top option, so perhaps we get some lower roster numbers on Boston's ace. I have concerns on both as it relates to pitch count. Woodruff is making just his second appearance and threw 70 pitches in his debut; he's not going to get the volume of swing and misses Saturday as he did in that debut, as the Nationals aren't a strikeout team. Tampa has a slightly higher K rate at 22.6 percent, while posting just a 90 wRC+ against lefties. With the All-Star break looming, does Crochet have a limit in order to be available there, or can he max out and not be called upon in that exhibition?
Trevor Rogers, BAL vs. MIA ($8,500): Rogers has been impressive in five starts since being recalled, allowing a 1.57 ERA (3.80 xFIP). He's not a big strikeout guy at 7.5 per nine, which is fine in this matchup as the Marlins whiff at a 21.1 percent clip. Rogers keeps the ball on the ground 48.1 percent of the time, and has allowed just one homer across 28.1 innings. Efficient, limited damage and innings are his path, as he's earned three quality starts in five outings thus far. Unlike the top options, Rogers should be able to pitch as much as his success dictates.
Emmet Sheehan, LAD at SF ($8,200): Sheehan is expected to be the bulk reliever following Shohei Ohtani opening. He's not highlighted as a starter, because, well he's not, which, unfortunately, takes away a quality start scoring bonus. But that also means he'll be completely ignored, which worked out fine for us Friday when Milwaukee's Quinn Priester did the same thing and earned 33 FDP. Sheehan has allowed two runs while striking out 10 across nine innings in two appearances, the Giants have a low 3.6 run expectancy and he should get some run support. There's a clear low roster likelihood, and a path to at least a 3x return against a lineup with just a slightly above average 102 wRC+ off righties.
Top Targets
Reds bats are the obvious starting point against Bradley Blalock, who is allowing a .489 wOBA and 1.164 OPS to lefties and .433/1.012 to righties. Elly De La Cruz ($4,000) walked four times Friday, three times intentionally. He'll be chalky, and the pricing makes this lineup stackable. I'm interested in Noelvi Marte ($3,400) as a slightly different option.
White Sox starter Sean Burke allowed six runs in his last outing, and when he's bad, he's really bad. Jose Ramirez ($3,800) has homered in five of his last eight, making for a hot bat at a fair price.
Jackson Chourio ($3,500) is a plug-and-play option against lefties, boasting a .420 wOBA, 175 wRC+ and .243 ISO. He's also riding a nine-game hitting streak. The only concern is how long Nationals' starter Shinnosuke Ogasawara lasts, as it's possible Chourio only gets two at-bats to exploit those splits.
Bargain Bats
Because Burke has been solid in spots, fading Ramirez in favor of some other higher-priced bats could be a way to be different Saturday. But I still want some shares of the Guardians lineup, who have a 5.1 run expectancy. Angel Martinez ($2,800) has an eight-game hitting streak and has homered in three of his last four, offering a potentially high ceiling at a discount.
Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,900) has hits in nine of his last 10, including three homers. He gets a favorable matchup with Frankie Montas, who's allowed 10 runs in his last 9.2 innings.
The Rockies have just a 2.9 run expectancy despite the favorable ballpark and a middling Brady Singer on the mound. I'm not buying that. Tyler Freeman ($2,900) had an eight-game hitting streak snapped Friday and offers little upside, but he can be an option for non-zero point totals, and has a team-best .428 wOBA and 166 wRC+ off righties.
Stack to Consider
Mets vs. Michael Lorenzen (Royals): Juan Soto ($3,800), Pete Alonso ($3,700), Francisco Lindor ($3,500)
There are a plethora of top bats that merit serious consideration Saturday, so perhaps this trio collectively goes a touch under the radar. Lorenzen has been better at home, and, surprisingly, tougher against lefties, further suggesting we could get some lower roster percentages here. And the BvP numbers are woeful, as this trio is a collecting 6-for-36 (.167) with no extra base hits. But Lorenzen is a fly ball pitcher at 43.5 percent, and this should be a warm hitter-friendly environment. Soto's willingness to walk/work counts gives him a nice floor, and he's earned double-digit fantasy points in five of seven, homering twice. Alonso is hitless in his last 10 ABs, while Lindor is riding a six-game hitting streak, homering twice, driving in eight and scoring nine times. He may be the preferred singular play. The splits don't like this, which gives us a chance to be different, while having major potential.
Try our FanDuel MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
