This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
I had three straight 2-2 weeks going into last week's article, but I finally stepped up with a perfect piece. We were a perfect 4-0 in that article, bringing our season record to 50-25-2. There's some symmetry I love with that record as a stats nerd, and I'd love to finish the final month strong. With that said, let's look at some of the PrizePicks plays we love for this Tuesday slate!
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Ronald Acuna, ATL at MIA: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Sandy Alcantara)
There simply aren't many better players in DFS than Acuna. This guy has a .422 OBP and .974 OPS in another sensational season, surpassing this total in six of his last eight games. Acuna has actually exceeded these numbers in over 60 percent of his games since his call-up, and we can't overlook that since he has some of the most absurd BvP numbers we've ever seen.
Acuna has a .489 OBP, .686 SLG and 1.175 OPS in 45 plate appearances against Alcantara. Sandy has been much better in the second half, but he's been abysmal all season. The former All-Star has a 6.04 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while amassing a 6.55 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his two starts against Atlanta this year.
Lars Nootbaar, STL vs. PIT: More Than 6.5 Fantasy Score (vs. Mitch Keller)
It's rare to see any leadoff hitter with such a low projection, especially one like this. Nootbaar is scorching hot right now, registering a .386 OBP and .874 OPS across the last two weeks. He's also cleared this prop in seven of those 10 games! That's no surprise when seeing his splits, as he sports a .355 OBP and .786 OPS against righties since 2023.
The form from Keller is the icing on the cake because he's struggled mightily over recent weeks. The Pittsburgh righty has an 8.31 ERA and 2.08 WHIP across his last six starts. Like Acuna, Nootbaar has some ridiculous BvP numbers in today's matchup, generating a .517 OBP and 1.085 OPS in 29 plate appearances against Keller.
Andre Pallante, STL vs. PIT: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Not much about Pallante's season will get you excited to use him here, but the matchup is just too good to pass up. The Pirates now rank 30th in runs scored, OPS and wOBA. That means they're the worst offense in the league, and Pallante proved that when he threw seven one-hit innings in their last matchup.
That superb start makes Pallante an easy choice to clear this total because he's been eating up innings all season. Pallante has recorded at least 15 outs in nine of his last 11 starts. That's ironic because he's completed at least 15 outs in nine of 11 starts at home this year. That's why Pallante enters this phenomenal matchup as a -135 favorite in a game with an 8-run total.
Hunter Brown, HOU vs. COL: More Than 5.5 Strikeouts
The toughest part about this pick was choosing which statistic to use for Brown. We expect him to have a gem in this magical matchup because he couldn't be in a better spot. Let's start with the opposition, because the Rockies rank 25th in OPS, 29th in runs scored, 28th in K rate and 27th in wOBA. That's scary because Colorado is even worse on the road, projected to score just three runs in this game.
The Rockies' projection is low because they're a bad offense, but it's minuscule because of how brilliant Brown has been. The Astros ace has a 2.36 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 rate in a Cy Young-type season. He's also got a 1.50 ERA across his last five starts while totaling a 2.27 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 rate at home. He showcased that prowess in Coors Field, striking out eight batters in their only match-up last month.
