Joe Kelly
Joe Kelly
30-Year-Old PitcherRP
Boston Red Sox
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Kelly was coming off of what was arguably the worst statistical season of his career in 2016 (5.18 ERA over 40 innings), but the veteran reliever twirled a dominant final month of the season which helped establish him as one of Boston's more reliable relief arms heading into 2018 campaign. After some offseason mechanical adjustments, Kelly saw his fastball velocity significantly increase to a blistering average of 99 mph. Unfortunately, this uptick in velocity didn't correlate to better strikeout numbers, as his strikeout rate actually fell nearly four percentage points to a very pedestrian 21.9 percent rate. His walk rate remained high (11.3 percent), but he was able to greatly suppress his home-run rate en route to a 2.79 ERA (3.49 FIP) over 58 innings of relief. Despite his improvements, Kelly's still a middle reliever with strikeout and command issues -- that isn't a very appealing combination in fantasy. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a one-year, $3.83 million contract with the Red Sox in January of 2018, avoiding arbitration.
Booed off mound Thursday
PBoston Red Sox
September 14, 2018
Kelly allowed one run on one hit, one walk and two hit batsmen without retiring a batter in the eighth inning of Thursday's 4-3 win over the Blue Jays.
ANALYSIS
This was Kelly's second eighth-inning flameout in the last three appearances. He entered with two outs and none on, then proceeded to let Toronto tie up the game while permitting batters to reach base safely in every conceivable way (hit, walk, HBP). The eighth inning remains Boston's most glaring weakness heading towards the postseason.
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Pitching Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .222 281 68 43 52 6 1 6
Since 2016vs Right .238 412 95 37 86 16 3 6
2018vs Left .200 120 31 10 22 3 1 2
2018vs Right .252 147 32 19 30 3 1 2
2017vs Left .222 94 22 20 16 1 0 1
2017vs Right .191 144 30 7 26 6 0 2
2016vs Left .269 67 15 13 14 2 0 3
2016vs Right .283 121 33 11 30 7 2 2
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-22%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-20%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-74%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-84%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.41 1.27 73.0 5 1 0 8.3 3.9 0.4
Since 2016Away 4.38 1.44 86.1 7 2 2 9.9 5.0 0.9
2018Home 3.67 1.11 27.0 0 1 0 8.0 2.7 0.0
2018Away 4.58 1.44 35.1 4 1 2 9.9 5.3 1.0
2017Home 4.55 1.37 27.2 2 0 0 7.2 3.9 0.7
2017Away 1.19 1.02 30.1 2 1 0 8.9 4.5 0.3
2016Home 1.40 1.34 19.1 3 0 0 10.2 5.6 0.5
2016Away 8.71 2.03 20.2 1 0 0 11.3 5.2 1.7
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Stat Review
How does Joe Kelly compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.17
 
K/9
9.1
 
BB/9
4.2
 
HR/9
0.6
 
Fastball
98.1 mph
 
ERA
4.19
 
WHIP
1.30
 
BABIP
.299
 
GB/FB
1.74
 
Strand %
67.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
Joe Kelly teased the Red Sox in 2016 with his high-90s fastball but would often lose his mechanics, missing the strike zone, and failed to use his secondary pitches enough. In six starts, he had an ERA of 8.46 while giving up 31 hits and 19 walks in 22.1 innings. He was demoted to Triple-A Pawtucket, where the organization decided to transition him to a reliever, a role for which many in MLB thought he was best suited. He took to it quite well, posting a 0.56 ERA in 13 appearances with the PawSox. Kelly continued to be effective when called up in September, putting up a 0.64 ERA while striking out 20 and walking three in 14 innings for Boston to close out the season. He added three scoreless and hitless postseason frames against the Indians. Manager John Farrell attributed his success to an improved slider. His dominant finish to the season sealed Kelly's fate as a full-time, mid-to-late-inning reliever in 2017.
Kelly has intoxicating velocity that keeps him interesting even as he continues to pile up mediocre results. He looked good in 2012-13, but his best work was done in the bullpen while he lucked into good results as a starter despite a 1.6 K/BB ratio in 31 starts. He's been a full-time starter since and the mediocrity has shown itself clearly with a 4.57 ERA and 1.9 K/BB ratio in 231 innings. His best secondary pitch is a changeup that helps him neutralize lefties with just a 29-point platoon split. The problem is that he just allows too much contact leaving him open to variance like the .274 to .320 BABIP jump we saw in 2015. Further exacerbating the issue is that his strikeout pitch - the slider - gets lit up any time it doesn't generate a strikeout (.908 OPS, 33% K rate since 2014). There are some intriguing elements, but his MLB work marries well with his minor league track record so it's hard to project a major jump for him as a starter.
Kelly posted a 2.69 ERA over 37 appearances – 15 starts – in 2013 and opened last season as the Cardinals' fifth starter. There were red flags, particularly with his strikeout and walk rates, as Kelly's xFIP in 2013 (4.19) indicated that a sub-3.00 simply wasn't sustainable. That proved to be true, and while Kelly pitched reasonably well, he was sidelined after three starts by a hamstring injury that kept him out of action for three months. Upon his return, he was hit hard and then traded to Boston in the John Lackey deal. With Boston's starting rotation decimated by trades and the team relying on young starting prospects, the 26-year-old Kelly became the team's No. 2 starter. Even with the offseason changes in the rotation, Kelly is expected to begin the year with one of the five starting spots. He may be ideally suited for the bullpen, where his fastball will have even more velocity (he averaged 94.7 mph on the pitch in 2014) and he won't have to rely as much on his secondary offerings.
Kelly started the season as a long-relief arm out of the bullpen before getting a shot in the rotation at the start of July. Kelly took the opportunity and ran with it, posting an 11-2 record with a 2.32 ERA over his final 14 starts. Despite an excellent showing in the rotation for the Cardinals, Kelly's role for the start of 2014 is murky. The Cardinals have a talented group of young arms to put behind ace Adam Wainwright and Kelly is a good bet to make the rotation next season, but it's far from a guarantee that he will stick if he ends up solidifying a spot when spring training breaks in March.
Kelly started 16 games for the Cardinals last year and threw eight in relief, where he was far more successful. In 91.1 innings as a starter, he had a respectable 3.74 ERA but a not-as-respectable 1.41 WHIP and 59:32 K:BB. Meanwhile, as a reliever, he threw 15.2 innings and finished with a 2.30 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 16:4 K:BB ratio. Naturally, the Cardinals are planning on using him as a starter this year. He's still just 24, and has room to grow, but it would be nice to see the K:BB ratio improve a bit before throwing him into the rotation for good.
More Fantasy News
Blows up Friday
PBoston Red Sox
September 8, 2018
Kelly (4-2) allowed three runs on four hits while striking out one over one inning to take the loss Friday against Houston.
ANALYSIS
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Tosses scoreless inning Tuesday
PBoston Red Sox
September 5, 2018
Kelly struck out two and walked one during an inning of relief against the Braves on Tuesday.
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Gives up more runs
PBoston Red Sox
July 15, 2018
Kelly allowed two runs on two hits and a walk over two-thirds of an inning in Saturday's 6-2 win over the Blue Jays.
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PItches Monday
PBoston Red Sox
July 10, 2018
Kelly, who had left his previous outing after experiencing lightheadedness, threw a scoreless eighth inning in Monday's 5-0 win over Texas. He allowed a hit and struck out two.
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Available out of bullpen
PBoston Red Sox
July 9, 2018
Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Kelly (illness) was available out of the bullpen during Sunday's 7-4 win over the Royals.
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