Daniel Norris
Daniel Norris
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Detroit Tigers
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Last season didn’t go as planned for Norris, who missed nearly four months with a groin injury and finished the campaign with a 5.68 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 44.1 innings (eight starts, three relief appearances). His career-worst ERA was driven by a below-average walk rate (3.9 BB/9) coupled with a spike in his home-run rate. The southpaw also saw a slight dip in his velocity, with his fastball averaging 90.2 mph after sitting at 93.2 mph in 2017, though that could have been related to his injury. It wasn’t all bad for Norris, however, as the 25-year-old managed to post a career-best 10.4 K/9 despite the drop in velocity, offering a reminder of his upside. Norris might once again slot into Detroit’s starting rotation to begin the 2019 season and could be worth a late-round flier, though his inconsistency and recent injury issues make him tough to trust. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $1.28 million contract with the Tigers in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
In mix for rotation spot
PDetroit Tigers
March 19, 2019
Norris is in the mix for the Tigers' final rotation spot, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
Michael Fulmer is expected to miss the entire season after being recommended for Tommy John surgery, leaving the Tigers with an open spot in their rotation. Norris, who has started 39 games for the Tigers over the last three seasons, is a leading candidate to fill that void, as is Spencer Turnbull. The southpaw hasn't done much to boost his case for the job this spring, evidenced by his 5.06 ERA and 9:6 K:BB through 10.2 innings (compared to Turnbull's 2.70 ERA and 8:1 K:BB through 10 frames).
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .270 231 59 22 55 11 1 10
Since 2016vs Right .284 731 149 63 186 39 6 20
2018vs Left .325 43 11 3 13 1 0 2
2018vs Right .243 157 40 16 33 9 0 6
2017vs Left .287 109 21 11 27 6 1 6
2017vs Right .297 351 65 33 93 21 4 6
2016vs Left .214 79 27 8 15 4 0 2
2016vs Right .290 223 44 14 60 9 2 8
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
ERA on Road
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
ERA on Road
Since 2016Home 5.34 1.70 111.1 3 10 0 8.6 4.0 1.6
Since 2016Away 4.15 1.32 103.0 6 5 0 8.7 3.1 0.9
2018Home 4.38 1.46 24.2 0 2 0 8.4 3.6 1.5
2018Away 7.32 1.47 19.2 0 3 0 12.8 4.1 1.8
2017Home 6.93 1.91 49.1 2 6 0 8.2 4.6 1.5
2017Away 3.78 1.34 52.1 3 2 0 7.1 3.3 0.7
2016Home 3.86 1.58 37.1 1 2 0 9.4 3.4 1.9
2016Away 2.81 1.19 32.0 3 0 0 9.0 2.3 0.6
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Stat Review
How does Daniel Norris compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
90.2 mph
Strand %
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Expectations were high for Norris after he notched a 4-2 record with a 3.38 ERA over 13 starts in 2016. Unfortunately for the Tigers and fantasy owners, Norris struggled out of the gates this past season and failed to recreate the success he found in his first full year in the Tigers' organization. The 24-year-old was sidelined for nearly two months with a groin strain and finished the season with a disappointing 5.31 ERA over 101.2 innings. He still has some heat on his fastball, with an average velocity over 93 mph, and three quality offerings (slider, curveball, changeup) to complement his primary pitch. However, his strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction last season, with his K-BB percentage falling from 16.2 percent in 2016 to 9.1 percent in 2017. Norris has now battled injuries in two consecutive seasons and thus shouldn't be counted on as more than a sixth or seventh starter on a fantasy staff.
Part of the haul from the trade that sent David Price to Toronto, who brought back both Matt Boyd and Norris (plus a lefty relief prospect). Norris enjoyed a nice 69-inning sample, but back and oblique injuries kept him from a larger inning count. Thankfully, he did log another 86 innings in the minors, so if performance and health allow it, he'll be ready for a full season in 2017. His 93 mph fastball was eighth-best among lefties who threw at least 60 innings as a starter ahead of luminaries like Clayton Kershaw, David Price, and Chris Sale. Of course, pitching is more than velocity, but it's a good start. The fastball needs to improve versus righties (too many homers) if he wants to cut into the 152-point OPS platoon split, but he showed enough with the slider, changeup, and curve to justify the No. 2/No. 3 starter upside he was tabbed with as a prospect. Buy.
Norris had a crazy season: a 25-man roster spot out of camp, a demotion, a trade, a FIFTY-FOUR pitch inning and then a cancer diagnosis at season’s end. By late-October, his thyroid surgery was declared successful and he was deemed cancer free. Obviously continued health will be the primary focus ahead of baseball, though an idea of his 2016 plan should be known by draft season. On the field he showed flashes of his top-notch upside, but also plenty of evidence that he’s far from a finished product. He tightened up the walk rate with Detroit, going from 4.6 to 1.7 BB/9, but the trade-off was more hittable pitches and a surge in homers allowed, suggesting he was exhibiting more control than command. Control is simply hitting the zone; command is placing it in the zone. This is the profile type to bet on because it could all come together in a big way, but do so with a late-round pick because it’s unlikely and if it goes south then you move on.
The Blue Jays were incredibly aggressive with Norris in 2014, as the 21-year-old southpaw climbed three full levels, finishing the season with a cup of coffee in Toronto. His strikeout rate in the minor leagues kept getting better as he faced more advanced hitting. Norris posted strikeout rates of 29 percent (66.1 innings), 31.6% (35.2 innings) and 44.7% (22.2 innings) at High-A, Double-A and Triple-A, respectively, and in turn, his prospect stock exploded. The curveball and slider will both work as finishing pitches against big league hitters (as long as he can locate his mid-90s fastball early in the count) and minor league hitters simply did not have a chance against his advance repertoire. Norris posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, allowing just 96 hits in 124.2 innings across three levels. That said, he still profiles as more of a mid-rotation starter in the big leagues, with perhaps better-than-average strikeout totals. Norris has a chance to start the season at the back of the Blue Jays’ rotation.
Norris struggled in his first full professional season in 2012 going 2-4 with an 8.44 ERA in 42.2 innings (12 starts). The lefty spent most of his time in the Appalachian League and had a brief stint with short-season Vancouver (Northwest League). He did, however, post a strong 9.1 K/9 thanks to an electric fastball that occasionally reaches 96 mph. Norris' secondary pitches are still developing, but after a full offseason of work, the 20-year-old should see the opportunity to step up in 2013 with a full-season assignment to Low-A Lansing.
The Jays landed Norris in the 2nd round due to some contract demands but he rewarded the Jays nicely. A low-to-mid 90s fastball is complemented with a nice breaking ball and changeup and he could move quickly. He'll make his pro debut this season.
More Fantasy News
Could crack rotation
PDetroit Tigers
March 14, 2019
With Michael Fulmer shut down indefinitely to work on his mechanics, Norris has a shot to crack the Tigers' rotation to begin the regular season, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
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Struggles Sunday with long ball
PDetroit Tigers
March 3, 2019
Norris allowed three runs on four hits over 1.2 innings and took the loss in Sunday's Grapefruit League game against the Yankees. He walked one and struck out two.
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Signs with Tigers
PDetroit Tigers
January 11, 2019
Norris reached a one-year, $1.275 million deal with the Tigers on Friday to avoid arbitration, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports.
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Struggles in no-decision against Brewers
PDetroit Tigers
September 29, 2018
Norris did not factor into the decision in Saturday's loss to the Brewers, as he allowed five runs on six hits and two walks over 4.2 innings. He struck out eight.
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Will get work in winter ball
PDetroit Tigers
September 28, 2018
Norris is slated to make a couple of starts with the Aguilas Cibaenas of the Dominican Winter League, Emily Waldon of The Athletic reports.
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