J.D. Davis
J.D. Davis
28-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
New York Mets
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Davis broke out in 2019, with his .307/.369/.527 slash line (which was supported by strong Statcast numbers) more than making up for his defensive deficiencies. While he produced a still-solid 117 wRC+ in 2020, much of that was the result of a big jump in BB% from 8.4 to 13.5, as his overall .247/.371/.389 line with a modest six homers was far less interesting to fantasy players outside of OBP leagues. Statcast suggests he deserved better, giving him a .430 xSLG, though that would still represent a significant step back. His average exit velocity dipped by a small amount (from 91.5 to 90.1 mph), though it was his average launch angle that changed the most dramatically, falling from 10.6 degrees to a very low 3.3. There's certainly plenty of upside here if he remembers how to lift the ball, but a repeat of his merely good 2020 form at the plate could see him lose playing time given his poor glovework. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#263
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.1 million contract with the Mets in February of 2021.
Stuck in reserve role
3BNew York Mets
September 13, 2021
Davis remains out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Cardinals, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
With only two starts since the beginning of September, Davis is clearly behind Jonathan Villar in the pecking order at third base. Even if the Mets were to lose another everyday player to an injury, Davis won't necessarily be the next man up to crack the regular lineup. Dominic Smith has also faded into a reserve role this month, with Jeff McNeil taking over as the Mets' primary option in left field.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
10
13
4
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
13
3
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+3%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+24%
OPS vs RHP
2020
Even Split
2019
 
 
+3%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .836 301 42 11 27 1 .280 .372 .464
Since 2019vs Right .859 579 66 22 72 3 .295 .375 .484
2021vs Left .711 63 5 1 6 0 .250 .365 .346
2021vs Right .880 144 12 4 17 1 .306 .396 .484
2020vs Left .771 83 11 2 4 0 .235 .373 .397
2020vs Right .772 137 15 4 15 0 .261 .372 .400
2019vs Left .913 155 26 8 17 1 .312 .374 .539
2019vs Right .886 298 39 14 40 2 .305 .366 .520
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+12%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+30%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+33%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+52%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .895 435 53 19 46 2 .300 .379 .516
Since 2019Away .802 454 55 14 53 2 .278 .368 .434
2021Home .714 94 7 1 5 0 .265 .340 .373
2021Away .930 113 10 4 18 1 .312 .425 .505
2020Home .650 111 7 2 8 0 .209 .342 .308
2020Away .863 118 19 4 11 0 .283 .398 .465
2019Home 1.078 230 39 16 33 2 .354 .413 .665
2019Away .710 223 26 6 24 1 .260 .323 .387
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Stat Review
How does J.D. Davis compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.35
 
BB Rate
11.1%
 
K Rate
31.4%
 
BABIP
.426
 
ISO
.153
 
AVG
.290
 
OBP
.386
 
SLG
.443
 
OPS
.830
 
wOBA
.367
 
Exit Velocity
82.9 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
31.9%
 
Barrels/PA
7.6%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
The Mets acquired Davis from the Astros in the offseason, and injuries allowed him to see steady playing time at third base to open the season. He performed well but was relegated to a bench role following the return of Todd Frazier. Davis was thrust back into a starting role -- this time in the outfield -- at the end of July and excelled over the rest of the season, hitting .331 with a 1.100 OPS and 13 homers in 55 games. His offensive breakout was largely supported by his underlying numbers; his average (.307) and slugging percentage (.527) were in line with Statcast's expected marks (.308 and .534), while his average exit velocity (91.3 mph) and barrel rate (7.1%) were well-above average. Davis wasn't as successful on the defensive side of things, as he graded out poorly in left field and at the hot corner, but he did enough with his bat to earn his fair share of opportunities between both spots in 2020.
Davis came to the plate 113 times in 2018 but didn't do much to justify the opportunities, hitting a miserable .175/.248/.223 with just a single home run. Those struggles were completely out of line with his performance in 85 games for Triple-A Fresno, where he hit an excellent .342/.406/.583. Those minor-league numbers could earn him more chances this season, but Davis will turn 26 in late April, so he's running out of time to show something at the big-league level. There are reasons to believe that he could hit better if given a chance this season, as his line was held down by a .233 BABIP, and Statcast's expected slugging percentage was a full 168 points better than his actual number. Still, that would leave him slugging a modest .391, not nearly good enough for a player limited to the corners defensively. A trade to the Mets gives him a slightly clearer path to playing time, but don't expect more than deep-league value.
Davis hit just .226 and struck out 29.4 percent of the time in his big-league debut, but wielded so much power (four home runs, .258 ISO) that he was still a league-average hitter (100 wRC+) over 68 plate appearances. Of course, league average won't cut it at an infield corner or at DH for the loaded Astros, and they have superior options at every position he could conceivably handle. Five years ago a player with his power potential could bring back a quality arm in a trade, but now almost every team has a player of Davis' caliber either in their lineup, on their bench or at Triple-A. The Astros are so loaded that not only do they have similar or better options on their bench, but they may even have a better third-base prospect at Triple-A in Colin Moran. Davis slugged .652 with three home runs in 26 MLB plate appearances against southpaws, which is in line with the righty's minor-league production and points to his future role as a bench bat who destroys opposite-handed pitching.
The 75th overall pick in the 2014 draft has always hit in the minor leagues, but his fairly high strikeout rates, below-average defense and a host of superior players ahead of him on Houston's organizational depth chart has led to Davis flying somewhat under the radar. While he has played some outfield and first base in the upper levels of the minors, the bulk of his starts still come at third base, where he has a strong arm and little else. There is no denying he has plus raw power, as he has never posted an ISO lower than .213 as a pro, but the strikeouts and favorable minor-league hitting environments make it difficult to project a high batting average. He might be Mike Napoli at third base, or he might be a Quadruple-A hitter who gets a very brief chance to prove he can hit with the Astros before being relegated back to an organizational depth role.
Davis, the 75th overall pick in 2014, spent last season with High-A Lancaster hitting in the friendly confines of the California League. The 22-year-old third baseman finished the year sixth in the league in home runs (26) and second in RBI (101) while hitting .289 in 120 games with the JetHawks. It will be all about adjustments as he moves up the organizational ladder, as he can get away with a 28.4% strikeout rate in the lower levels of the minors, but that rate could spike once he starts facing Double-A pitchers who can command a breaking ball. Still, the case can be made that the Cal State Fullerton product has already established himself as a top-100 prospect for dynasty leagues.
More Fantasy News
Back to bench
3BNew York Mets
August 25, 2021
Davis is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Brings home four runs
3BNew York Mets
August 22, 2021
Davis went 2-for-3 with a home run, two runs, four RBI, a walk and a HBP in the Mets' 7-2 win over the Dodgers on Sunday.
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Records first stolen base
3BNew York Mets
August 21, 2021
Davis went 1-for-4 with a stolen base in Saturday's 4-3 loss to the Dodgers.
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Leads rally with two hits
3BNew York Mets
August 12, 2021
Davis went 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles, one run and one RBI in the Mets' 8-7 win over the Nationals, which was a resumption of Tuesday's suspended game.
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Losing work to Villar at 3B
3BNew York Mets
August 8, 2021
Davis is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Phillies.
ANALYSIS
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