Dane Dunning
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Dunning missed the entire 2019 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery but was thought of highly enough within the White Sox organization to earn a big-league callup last season despite having never pitched beyond Double-A. The vote of confidence paid off as Dunning enjoyed a fine rookie campaign, posting a 3.97 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over seven starts (34 innings). The numbers mostly hold up; the right-hander's 4.16 xFIP closely trailed his ERA and his 24.6 K% was in line with his minor-league rate. Though Dunning doesn't possess a dominant fastball, he mixes up four pitches well, which helped him generate a satisfactory 11.4 SwStr% last season. His 9.2 BB% needs to come down and the .239 BABIP is unsustainable, but Dunning's feel for pitching provides him a moderate floor. He should fill a mid-rotation spot for Texas, who parted with Lance Lynn to land Dunning in an offseason trade. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#297
ADP
$Traded to the Rangers in December of 2020.
Will be on innings count
PTexas Rangers
February 18, 2021
Dunning will not pitch more than 200 innings this season, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Texas manager Chris Woodward did not specify an innings limit for Dunning or Kyle Cody, but he said neither hurler will reach 200. The Rangers are taking a conservative approach with Dunning, who underwent Tommy John elbow surgery in March of 2019 and threw only 34 innings in 2020. The manager added that Kohei Arihara, Kyle Gibson and Mike Foltynewicz are set as starters. Beyond that, the rotation is not yet solidified, though Dunning is expected to be part of the rotation in 2021.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
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Scoring
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
73
Last 10 Games
73
Last 5 Games
69
How many pitches does Dane Dunning generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Dane Dunning generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
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9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-38%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-38%
BAA vs RHP
2019
No Stats
2018
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .246 71 16 8 15 3 0 2
Since 2018vs Right .152 71 19 5 10 0 0 2
2020vs Left .246 71 16 8 15 3 0 2
2020vs Right .152 71 19 5 10 0 0 2
2019vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-49%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-49%
ERA at Home
2019
No Stats
2018
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 2.20 0.73 16.1 1 0 0 11.6 2.2 1.1
Since 2018Away 4.30 1.36 14.2 1 0 0 7.4 3.7 0.6
2020Home 2.20 0.73 16.1 1 0 0 11.6 2.2 1.1
2020Away 4.30 1.36 14.2 1 0 0 7.4 3.7 0.6
2019Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Dane Dunning compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.69
 
K/9
9.3
 
BB/9
3.4
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
91.9 mph
 
ERA
3.97
 
WHIP
1.12
 
BABIP
.256
 
GB/FB
1.64
 
Left On Base
64.8%
 
Exit Velocity
82.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.7%
 
Spin Rate
2090 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.9%
 
Swinging Strike
13.0%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dane Dunning
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
Dunning was shut down in late June with a right elbow strain, but was back for instructional league, so he appears to have avoided Tommy John surgery, for now. Prior to the injury, he was cruising in his first taste of Double-A, with a 2.40 FIP, 26.3 K% and a groundball rate just a hair under 50%. That success oversells his stuff to some degree. He has a legitimate four-pitch mix, but lacks a the type of electric arsenal we would typically associate with a pitcher who has struck out more than 10 batters per nine at every full-season stop (which he has done). His low-90s sinker is effective, and his slider can flash plus, but with just fringe-average command, it's the type of repertoire typically found in a No. 4 starter. Already 24 years old and without a significantly high ceiling, Dunning does not need to be universally rostered in dynasty leagues, particularly with last year's elbow injury portending the eventual need for some sort of procedure.
The third returning piece for Chicago in the Adam Eaton trade, Dunning was unproven heading into 2017, but he quickly established himself as a future rotation piece. He has a solid four-pitch mix, and could end up with anywhere from three to zero plus pitches. His ability to sequence and locate his offerings allowed him to dominate hitters at High-A. Dunning ranked third in the Carolina League in strikeout rate (26.4 percent) and K-BB (19.4 percent). Double-A should present a valuable challenge, as his repertoire may not lead to the same gaudy strikeout totals against more advanced hitters. Entering his age-23 season, there won't be much margin for error in the minds of dynasty-league owners, as most of his contemporaries are already at Triple-A or knocking on the door of the big leagues. If he continues to command his mid-90s sinking fastball and his slider and curveball continue to miss bats, a future No. 3 starter could quickly come into focus.
On a loaded pitching staff at the University of Florida last season, Dunning got somewhat overlooked, but he showed enough upside for the Nationals to nab him with the 29th overall pick in the draft. A 6-foot-4 right-hander, his success on the mound comes more from the deception inherent in his mechanics and killer changeup than it does from an overpowering fastball, but that arsenal allowed him to make a solid pro debut between the GCL and short-season Low-A. Whether he's able to become a reliable starting pitcher in the majors depends on the development of his breaking pitch, a slurvy offering which at this point lags well behind his low 90s fastball and change, but his college experience out of the bullpen will serve him well if that ends up being his ultimate role. Traded to the White Sox in the Adam Eaton deal, the 21-year-old is still a few years away from being a factor for Chicago, so he's get plenty of time and plenty of chances to work on that breaking pitch before his role is finalized.
More Fantasy News
Packing bags for Texas
PTexas Rangers
December 7, 2020
Dunning was traded from the White Sox to the Rangers on Monday in exchange for Lance Lynn, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Faces only four batters
PChicago White Sox
October 2, 2020
Dunning recorded two outs and allowed two hits during Thursday's Game 3 loss to the Athletics. He didn't factor in the decision had zero strikeouts and zero walks.
ANALYSIS
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Little command against Cubs
PChicago White Sox
September 26, 2020
Dunning was charged with five runs (four earned) on three hits over three innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Saturday. He struck out two batters and walked three.
ANALYSIS
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No-decision Monday
PChicago White Sox
September 22, 2020
Dunning took a no-decision after allowing four runs on six hits and one walk while striking out five over four innings in Monday's 7-4 loss to Cleveland.
ANALYSIS
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Another sharp outing
PChicago White Sox
September 15, 2020
Dunning (2-0) allowed three hits and two walks while striking out seven across seven innings to earn the win Tuesday against the Twins.
ANALYSIS
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