Dane Dunning
Dane Dunning
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Texas Rangers
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Dunning missed the entire 2019 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery but was thought of highly enough within the White Sox organization to earn a big-league callup last season despite having never pitched beyond Double-A. The vote of confidence paid off as Dunning enjoyed a fine rookie campaign, posting a 3.97 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over seven starts (34 innings). The numbers mostly hold up; the right-hander's 4.16 xFIP closely trailed his ERA and his 24.6 K% was in line with his minor-league rate. Though Dunning doesn't possess a dominant fastball, he mixes up four pitches well, which helped him generate a satisfactory 11.4 SwStr% last season. His 9.2 BB% needs to come down and the .239 BABIP is unsustainable, but Dunning's feel for pitching provides him a moderate floor. He should fill a mid-rotation spot for Texas, who parted with Lance Lynn to land Dunning in an offseason trade. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#343
ADP
$Traded to the Rangers in December of 2020.
Takes second straight loss
PTexas Rangers
June 20, 2021
Dunning (2-6) took the loss Sunday versus Minnesota. He allowed four runs (three earned) on 10 hits and two walks with five strikeouts in four innings.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander has failed to complete five innings in five of his last seven starts, and he's gone 0-3 with four no-decisions in that span. Dunning has a 4.71 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and 71:23 K:BB across 65 innings this year. He's only allowed six home runs this year, but he's giving up a few too many baserunners to find much success. He'll look to right the ship versus Kansas City in next weekend's series.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2021 MLB Game Log
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Scoring
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
75
Last 10 Games
78
Last 5 Games
77
How many pitches does Dane Dunning generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Dane Dunning generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-1%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-38%
BAA vs RHP
2019
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .279 201 49 20 50 13 0 2
Since 2019vs Right .249 227 57 16 52 4 0 8
2021vs Left .297 130 33 12 35 10 0 0
2021vs Right .294 156 38 11 42 4 0 6
2020vs Left .246 71 16 8 15 3 0 2
2020vs Right .152 71 19 5 10 0 0 2
2019vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-62%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-66%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-49%
ERA at Home
2019
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 2.41 1.11 52.1 3 2 0 11.2 2.2 0.7
Since 2019Away 6.39 1.69 43.2 1 4 0 8.0 4.1 1.0
2021Home 2.50 1.28 36.0 2 2 0 11.0 2.3 0.5
2021Away 7.45 1.86 29.0 0 4 0 8.4 4.3 1.2
2020Home 2.20 0.73 16.1 1 0 0 11.6 2.2 1.1
2020Away 4.30 1.36 14.2 1 0 0 7.4 3.7 0.6
2019Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Dane Dunning compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.09
 
K/9
9.8
 
BB/9
3.2
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
90.5 mph
 
ERA
4.71
 
WHIP
1.54
 
BABIP
.387
 
GB/FB
2.65
 
Left On Base
69.9%
 
Exit Velocity
81.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.8%
 
Spin Rate
2040 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
27.9%
 
Swinging Strike
11.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dane Dunning
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
Dunning was shut down in late June with a right elbow strain, but was back for instructional league, so he appears to have avoided Tommy John surgery, for now. Prior to the injury, he was cruising in his first taste of Double-A, with a 2.40 FIP, 26.3 K% and a groundball rate just a hair under 50%. That success oversells his stuff to some degree. He has a legitimate four-pitch mix, but lacks a the type of electric arsenal we would typically associate with a pitcher who has struck out more than 10 batters per nine at every full-season stop (which he has done). His low-90s sinker is effective, and his slider can flash plus, but with just fringe-average command, it's the type of repertoire typically found in a No. 4 starter. Already 24 years old and without a significantly high ceiling, Dunning does not need to be universally rostered in dynasty leagues, particularly with last year's elbow injury portending the eventual need for some sort of procedure.
The third returning piece for Chicago in the Adam Eaton trade, Dunning was unproven heading into 2017, but he quickly established himself as a future rotation piece. He has a solid four-pitch mix, and could end up with anywhere from three to zero plus pitches. His ability to sequence and locate his offerings allowed him to dominate hitters at High-A. Dunning ranked third in the Carolina League in strikeout rate (26.4 percent) and K-BB (19.4 percent). Double-A should present a valuable challenge, as his repertoire may not lead to the same gaudy strikeout totals against more advanced hitters. Entering his age-23 season, there won't be much margin for error in the minds of dynasty-league owners, as most of his contemporaries are already at Triple-A or knocking on the door of the big leagues. If he continues to command his mid-90s sinking fastball and his slider and curveball continue to miss bats, a future No. 3 starter could quickly come into focus.
On a loaded pitching staff at the University of Florida last season, Dunning got somewhat overlooked, but he showed enough upside for the Nationals to nab him with the 29th overall pick in the draft. A 6-foot-4 right-hander, his success on the mound comes more from the deception inherent in his mechanics and killer changeup than it does from an overpowering fastball, but that arsenal allowed him to make a solid pro debut between the GCL and short-season Low-A. Whether he's able to become a reliable starting pitcher in the majors depends on the development of his breaking pitch, a slurvy offering which at this point lags well behind his low 90s fastball and change, but his college experience out of the bullpen will serve him well if that ends up being his ultimate role. Traded to the White Sox in the Adam Eaton deal, the 21-year-old is still a few years away from being a factor for Chicago, so he's get plenty of time and plenty of chances to work on that breaking pitch before his role is finalized.
More Fantasy News
Struggles in loss Sunday
PTexas Rangers
June 13, 2021
Dunning (2-5) allowed four earned runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out five across four innings, taking the loss to the Dodgers on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Tosses five scoreless frames
PTexas Rangers
June 6, 2021
Dunning didn't factor into the decision Sunday against the Rays after tossing five scoreless innings, giving up three hits and two walks while fanning six.
ANALYSIS
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So-so in Tuesday start
PTexas Rangers
June 2, 2021
Dunning pitched 4.2 innings against Colorado on Tuesday, allowing two runs on six hits and no walks while striking out three. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Rocked by Angels
PTexas Rangers
May 27, 2021
Dunning (2-4) allowed seven runs over four-plus innings to pick up the loss to the Angels on Wednesday. He gave up seven hits and three walks while striking out four.
ANALYSIS
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Fires six scoreless
PTexas Rangers
May 20, 2021
Dunning did not factor into the decision during Thursday's loss despite blanking the Yankees through six innings. He allowed four hits and a walk while striking out six.
ANALYSIS
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