J.D. Davis

Davis broke out in 2019, with his .307/.369/.527 slash line (which was supported by strong Statcast numbers) more than making up for his defensive deficiencies. While he produced a still-solid 117 wRC+ in 2020, much of that was the result of a big jump in BB% from 8.4 to 13.5, as his overall .247/.371/.389 line with a modest six homers was far less interesting to fantasy players outside of OBP leagues. Statcast suggests he deserved better, giving him a .430 xSLG, though that would still represent a significant step back. His average exit velocity dipped by a small amount (from 91.5 to 90.1 mph), though it was his average launch angle that changed the most dramatically, falling from 10.6 degrees to a very low 3.3. There's certainly plenty of upside here if he remembers how to lift the ball, but a repeat of his merely good 2020 form at the plate could see him lose playing time given his poor glovework.

The Mets acquired Davis from the Astros in the offseason, and injuries allowed him to see steady playing time at third base to open the season. He performed well but was relegated to a bench role following the return of Todd Frazier. Davis was thrust back into a starting role -- this time in the outfield -- at the end of July and excelled over the rest of the season, hitting .331 with a 1.100 OPS and 13 homers in 55 games. His offensive breakout was largely supported by his underlying numbers; his average (.307) and slugging percentage (.527) were in line with Statcast's expected marks (.308 and .534), while his average exit velocity (91.3 mph) and barrel rate (7.1%) were well-above average. Davis wasn't as successful on the defensive side of things, as he graded out poorly in left field and at the hot corner, but he did enough with his bat to earn his fair share of opportunities between both spots in 2020.

Davis came to the plate 113 times in 2018 but didn't do much to justify the opportunities, hitting a miserable .175/.248/.223 with just a single home run. Those struggles were completely out of line with his performance in 85 games for Triple-A Fresno, where he hit an excellent .342/.406/.583. Those minor-league numbers could earn him more chances this season, but Davis will turn 26 in late April, so he's running out of time to show something at the big-league level. There are reasons to believe that he could hit better if given a chance this season, as his line was held down by a .233 BABIP, and Statcast's expected slugging percentage was a full 168 points better than his actual number. Still, that would leave him slugging a modest .391, not nearly good enough for a player limited to the corners defensively. A trade to the Mets gives him a slightly clearer path to playing time, but don't expect more than deep-league value.

Davis hit just .226 and struck out 29.4 percent of the time in his big-league debut, but wielded so much power (four home runs, .258 ISO) that he was still a league-average hitter (100 wRC+) over 68 plate appearances. Of course, league average won't cut it at an infield corner or at DH for the loaded Astros, and they have superior options at every position he could conceivably handle. Five years ago a player with his power potential could bring back a quality arm in a trade, but now almost every team has a player of Davis' caliber either in their lineup, on their bench or at Triple-A. The Astros are so loaded that not only do they have similar or better options on their bench, but they may even have a better third-base prospect at Triple-A in Colin Moran. Davis slugged .652 with three home runs in 26 MLB plate appearances against southpaws, which is in line with the righty's minor-league production and points to his future role as a bench bat who destroys opposite-handed pitching.

The 75th overall pick in the 2014 draft has always hit in the minor leagues, but his fairly high strikeout rates, below-average defense and a host of superior players ahead of him on Houston's organizational depth chart has led to Davis flying somewhat under the radar. While he has played some outfield and first base in the upper levels of the minors, the bulk of his starts still come at third base, where he has a strong arm and little else. There is no denying he has plus raw power, as he has never posted an ISO lower than .213 as a pro, but the strikeouts and favorable minor-league hitting environments make it difficult to project a high batting average. He might be Mike Napoli at third base, or he might be a Quadruple-A hitter who gets a very brief chance to prove he can hit with the Astros before being relegated back to an organizational depth role.

Davis, the 75th overall pick in 2014, spent last season with High-A Lancaster hitting in the friendly confines of the California League. The 22-year-old third baseman finished the year sixth in the league in home runs (26) and second in RBI (101) while hitting .289 in 120 games with the JetHawks. It will be all about adjustments as he moves up the organizational ladder, as he can get away with a 28.4% strikeout rate in the lower levels of the minors, but that rate could spike once he starts facing Double-A pitchers who can command a breaking ball. Still, the case can be made that the Cal State Fullerton product has already established himself as a top-100 prospect for dynasty leagues.