This article is part of our Handicapping the NBA series.
Khris Middleton OVER 2.5 made threes (-129) at ATL – DraftKings (1:05 PM CT)
Middleton has taken 28 threes across the first three games of this series, but he's hit just eight (28.6%). Assuming he keeps shooting the long ball at that volume, there's a strong chance he'll be able to knock three down. In the playoffs as a whole, Middleton is averaging 2.7 makes per game, so -129 seems like fair value.
Milwaukee Bucks -7.0 (-110) at Atlanta Hawks – DraftKings Sportsbook
Part of my lean here is rooted in the belief that Trae Young will not be at 100 percent tonight, but the bigger issue for the Hawks is that their No. 2 scorer, Bogdan Bogdanovic, is also banged up. Given that circumstance, Atlanta doesn't have a clear, dynamic backup (like a Cam Payne or a Reggie Jackson) who can compensate if Young is limited. Normally, that would be Bogdanovic, but he hasn't looked remotely like himself since midway through the Philly series. On the other side, the Bucks still have plenty of room to improve in terms of shooting the three. They may only have two truly great outside shooters (Khris Middleton and Bryn Forbes), but it's fair to expect more from the likes of Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday, Pat Connaughton, and even Forbes, who was just 1-of-4 from deep in Game 3.
Khris Middleton OVER 6.5 rebounds (-148) at Atlanta Hawks – DraftKings Sportsbook
Middleton's scoring has been a little too volatile for me to bite on the over 23.5 points (-127), but I like his chances to have another big game on the glass. He's grabbed at least seven boards in four of his last five games and has six double-digit-rebound games in the playoffs – something he did only seven times in 68 regular-season games. A sizable bump in minutes has surely helped, but Middleton even pulled down seven boards in just 28 minutes during the Bucks' Game 2 romp.
Trae Young UNDER 8.5 assists (-129) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – DraftKings Sportsbook
Based on how he ended Game 3, I'm concerned about how Young's foot will hold up tonight. I think he'll play through the bone bruise, but it's hard to imagine him bringing the same level of aggression we've seen through the first three games. While I do think Young will still be able to score, he'll have to rely more on his shooting, rather than attacking the basket and putting more strain on that foot. Down the stretch in Game 3, Young mostly played off the ball as he battled obvious discomfort. Chances are, Young has made some progress over the last 48 hours, but if he's at all limited in his ability – or willingness – to get into the lane, it'll be difficult for him to replicate the gaudy assists totals we saw at the end of the Philly series and in Game 1 against Milwaukee. It's also worth noting that Young had only seven total assists in Games 2 and 3.
Bucks -6.5 (-110) at ATL – FanDuel (12:12pm ET)
There is blood in the water, notably from Trae Young's ankle, and I'm betting on the Bucks having a shark-like mentality to beat the Hawks badly tonight. Either Young won't play, or he'll be significantly slower. Lou Williams can play a few minutes at PG, but not starters minutes. Young's injury wouldn't be a complete disaster if Bogdan Bogdanovic was healthy, but Bogdan's knee injury has held the versatile wing to single-digit scoring in his last six playoff games. I originally picked ATL in seven, but if Young is hobbled, that pick will be wrong.
OVER on Kevin Huerter scoring 12.5 points (-125) – BetMGM
Red Velvet has averaged 11.4 points over 15 playoff games. But that was with a healthy Trae Young by his side. Tonight, I suspect Young either doesn't play or is significantly hobbled, forcing Huerter to step up. Opie stepped up big time in Game 7 versus Philly (27 points on 10-18 FG), so I'm confident he has the cajones to step up tonight.
John Collins to record a double-double (+112) vs. MIL – FanDuel
Collins has been a consistent double-double threat in the playoffs, notching four double-doubles in the team's last seven games. The risky part about this bet is that he was only able to get a double-double once in this series against Milwaukee, and that was in Game 1. The forward got into early foul trouble in Games 2 and 3, which severely limited his minutes. With a postseason average of 32.1 minutes, Collins only played a combined 47 minutes in Games 2 and 3. Although he didn't receive much action, he was still able to record 11 points and eight rebounds in Game 2 and 13 points and eight rebounds in Game 3. I expect Collins to play smart and stay out of foul trouble, while also stepping up offensively to help out his team's injured star, Trae Young. If Collins can stay on the court for at least 30 minutes, I'm confident he'll be able to snag a double-double in this crucial Game 4.