This article is part of our Handicapping the NBA series.
Either team to win by 8 points or less (-110) – FanDuel (1:13 PM CT)
This is somewhat of a protest pick, as I feel too attached as a Bucks fan to objectively pick a winner for this game, and even player props are tough to analyze. However, I do think this will be a nail-biter regardless of who wins. Laying the standard -110 on this unconventional bet doesn't feel like amazing value, but it also doesn't feel like I'm being ripped off. Ultimately, I'm just hoping for an all-time Finals game, and I'm hopeful for a Bucks victory.
Suns at Bucks UNDER 222.0 total points (-115) – DraftKings (11:53 AM CT)
Game 5 went way over this total (by 20 points, to be exact), but it was a historic shooting night for both teams that is wildly unlikely to be replicated. At one point, Milwaukee and Phoenix combined to score on 13 consecutive possessions, with difficult, contested jumpers accounting for several of those buckets. Both teams shot at least 50 percent from three and both shot well over 50 percent from the field. Meanwhile, the pace came in at just 91.5 – a very low number for a game with 242 combined points. I expect this game to feel like a Game 7 with both teams slowing things down and maximizing each possession.
Khris Middleton OVER 4.5 assists (-150) vs. Phoenix Suns – DraftKings
You're not getting a ton of value here, but this is an appealing number for a player who's gone over this number in 12 of his last 15 games. Middleton has at least four assists in every game in that span, and with the Suns likely keying on him in the halfcourt, he should have plenty of opportunities to pass out of double teams to open shooters or Giannis Antetokounmpo/Brook Lopez inside.
Jae Crowder OVER 2.5 three-pointers (-125) at Milwaukee Bucks – DraftKings
It feels like Crowder either goes 0-for-8 or 6-for-8 from three in every game, but as a Bucks sympathizer, it's hard not to imagine him hitting a few backbreaking threes throughout the night. In the two games in Milwaukee so far, he's a combined 9-of-16 from beyond the arc.
Devin Booker OVER 30.5 points (-125) – BetMGM (11:10am ET)
The Suns aren't going down without a fight, especially at home. A gunslinger like Booker isn't going to leave bullets in the chamber. He's scored 40 and 42 points in the last two games of these Finals. It's not like the Suns will turn to Jevon Carter to save them.
Suns moneyline at MIL (+170) – BetMGM (12:17 PM CT)
Although the Bucks have looked dominant during their three-game winning streak, the last two games came down to the final possessions. Chris Paul and Devin Booker both turned the ball over late in Games 4 and 5, which ended up sealing the games for the Bucks. I think this game will be close yet again, but I don't think the Suns are going to make another critical mistake that costs them their season. This could also be Paul's last deep playoff run, so I expect him to be at his best along with Booker, who has dropped 40+ in the last two games.