NBA DFS Breakdown: Who Will Take Control of the Series?

NBA DFS Breakdown: Who Will Take Control of the Series?

This article is part of our NBA DFS Breakdown series.

Odds

MIL at BOS (-2.0), 219.0 Over/Under

DEN at POR (-4.0), 215.0 Over/Under

Bucks at Celtics

Stats Through Two Games

Analysis

This has been the story of two decisive victories -- the Celtics winning by 22 in Game 1 and the Bucks winning by 21 in Game 2. And though the Bucks have struggled shooting the ball, largely due to Al Horford's presence on Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee has the advantage in terms of turnovers, rebounding and free-throw attempts. Despite shooting just 38.9 FG% in the series, Giannis has still made his mark, collecting the most fantasy points on the team.

Right behind him is Khris Middleton, who is a blistering 10-of-14 from beyond the arc and has rebounded well. Eric Bledsoe and Nikola Mirotic round out the other fantasy relevant players on the Bucks. Bledsoe, after being a non-factor in Game 1, posted 21 points on 12 shots in Game 2, while also adding five assists, three rebounds and two blocks. Mirotic has been doing his job, hitting four threes and collecting 13 rebounds in 45 minutes. In looking for a low-owned value option for DFS, it's worth considering Pat Connaughton. He's shooting an uncharacteristically low 28.6 FG%, but has demonstrated an ability to get supplementary stats, racking up 16 boards and five assists. If he finds his shot, his low price could pay off.

Kyrie Irving and Al Horford are the two cogs that keep the Celtics machine running. They've combined for over 140 fantasy points across the first two games of the series. A poor Game 2 showing has dragged Irving's FG% down to 41.0 for the series, but that will likely trend upward, as he shot 50.7% at home during the regular season.

Jaylen Brown has actually played the most minutes for Boston in this series, and he's tied for the second-most shot attempts, making him a prime value target in DFS. Another value option worth looking at while his stock is low is Jayson Tatum. He's converted on just 23.5% of his 17 looks so far. Like Irving, progression to the mean plus home court might help bring that up for Game 3. Terry Rozier is an interesting option, considering he's averaging 1.2 FP/min. However, banking on him to see minutes in the upper-20s is far from ideal. Ultimately, he's someone you can throw in your lineup in a stars-and-scrubs build.

Nuggets at Trail Blazers

Stats Through Two Games

Analysis

This series is extremely close, with the teams' offensive ratings being separated by half a point. However, Denver has the advantage from a Four Factors perspective, only conceding effective field-goal percentage to Portland. Much of that starts with the MVP-caliber play of Nikola Jokic. He's scoring in seemingly every way possible, hitting 15 two-pointers, a trio of three-pointers and 14 free-throws. He's also been cleaning the glass with 23 rebounds and, of course, dishing the ball with 13 assists. Combine that with some above-average defense, and Jokic has already racked up 114.1 FP in the series.

After Jokic, Paul Millsap and Jamal Murray have put themselves in their own tier for the Nuggets. Millsap is taking advanatge of the Blazers' lack of size, going 12-for-21 on two-pointers in the series and getting to the free-throw line eight times. Murray hasn't been shy firing from long distance, and he's converted on five of his 14 threes. In trying to find an interesting value play, Mason Plumlee stands out. Like Millsap, Portland doesn't have the size to contain him. The big man is averaging 1.4 FP/min through impressive rebounding and defense.

Damian Lillard has been the most successful in this series attacking the basket. He's shooting just 5-of-19 from beyond the arc, but 12-of-19 on twos, and he's been to the charity stripe 17 times. There are some positives to Lillard's scoring, but his passing has been extremely poor. He has nine turnovers to 10 assists, and he's only collected three steals to make up for it. But there's reason to bank on Lillard having a better Game 3, as he shot 6.0% better from three at home compared to on the road.

After Lillard, most players are separated by a gap of about 10 FP a piece. Enes Kanter has given Jokic issues, scoring and rebounding almost at will. C.J. McCollum has helped make up for Lillard's struggles beyond the arc, going a respectable 5-of-14 from distance. Rodney Hood has come out of nowhere to take 21 shots in this series, scoring 32 points. Al-Farouq Aminu may be someone to look at for a low-cost value option in DFS. He has proven to be a great rebounder in this series, but is shooting just 4-of-14 from the field. Considering he shoots almost four percent better from the field at home, it's possible we see a bounceback.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Barutha plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel Username: unclestosh99, DraftKings Username: Roto_Alex.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's Chief NBA Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, VSiN and other platforms. He firmly believes Robert Covington is the most underrated fantasy player of the past decade.
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