Wondering if you should trust my advice? Check out my latest Trust Tracker blog post analyzing how my recommendations from Wednesday's games fared.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
There is no one defense to avoid on Thursday. Over their last four games, each of the four defenses in action Thursday rank among the better third of the league, and often pretty close to one another. For example, in opponent points per possession, all four rank between 7th and 11th. Every team ranks among the 10 toughest fantasy opponents at some positions, and among the 10 most generous at other positions. With so few options available, and the defenses so closely grouped, I can't advocate trying to avoid any single one.
Instead, avoid challenging matchups. Try to avoid point guards against Patrick Beverley and the Rockets, power forwards against Serge Ibaka and the Thunder, and wing players not named "Durant" against the Cavaliers.
Offenses to Use
Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings: While there is no team I'm specifically avoiding Thursday, my own team will feature more Kings than anyone else. The Rockets have done admirably without Dwight Howard (knee), but Kostas Papanikolaou (knee) has played a major role in their sustained success. With Papanikolaou now out, the weight on the backs of Tarik Black and Donatas Motiejunas – both already playing out of their natural position – continues to increase. And Thursday is the second night of a back-to-back set against good western conference opponents. Those members of the Rockets still standing have every right to be exhausted – but that could allow some nice box scores for the Kings' wings and big men.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Cleveland Cavaliers, Oklahoma City Thunder
Second game of a back-to-back: Houston Rockets
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Russell Westbrook, OKC (vs CLE), PG, ($10,700): There are only five active point guards available above the salary minimum. Kyrie Irving is chronically overpriced, Darren Collison has a very difficult matchup, and Reggie Jackson's price has not yet stabilized since Westbrook's return. The remaining two are recommended here. Westbrook is costly, but he has a favorable matchup and a ridiculously high floor - he scored 40 fantasy points in his worst healthy game this season.
Other suggestions: Patrick Beverley, HOU (at SAC), PG, ($5,600)
Shooting Guard
Anthony Morrow, OKC (vs CLE), SG, ($5,100): "Threadbare" is an undeserved compliment if applied to Thursday's shooting guard crop. Unless you plan to go full-hog on James Harden, then spend as little as you can and try to get out unscathed. Morrow is dirt-cheap and has seen a stable 20-23 minutes per night since Kevin Durant's return. His fantasy production is trending in the wrong direction, but it was scarcely two weeks ago that we saw him shoot 8-16 from downtown over a three game span. The ability is there, it just doesn't always show itself.
Other suggestions: None.
Small Forward
Trevor Ariza, HOU (at SAC), SF, ($6,500): As Rockets big men have fallen, Rockets small forwards have been conscripted to replace them, leaving Ariza completely alone with all the minutes he can handle. Ariza has broken 40 minutes in four of the past five games, and in seven of the ten without Howard.
Other suggestions: Rudy Gay, SAC (at HOU), SF, ($8,900)
Power Forward
Donatas Motiejunas, HOU (at SAC), PF, ($5,400): As the injuries keep piling up around him, Motiejunas gains value as the last man standing. He's not logging quite as many minutes as Ariza, but he's getting enough court time to average 16.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 29 fantasy points over his last five games.
Other suggestions: Jason Thompson, SAC (vs HOU), PF, ($4,600)
Center
Reggie Evans, SAC (vs HOU), C, ($5,000): Evans has grabbed 27 total rebounds in his two games since taking over as starting center. Thursday he takes on an undermanned and overworked Rockets backup squad. Evans' is averaging 32 minutes and 26.9 fantasy points per game as a starter – more than enough to make him profitable on such a small slate of games.
Other suggestions: Kendrick Perkins, OKC (vs CLE), C, ($3,000)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Dwight Howard (knee)
Terrence Jones (leg)
Kostas Papanikolaou (knee)
Francisco Garcia (calf)
DeMarcus Cousins (illness)
Game-Time Decision
Mike Miller (concussion) is a game-time decision.
Isaiah Canaan (ankle) is doubtful.
