We're about a week from when the main rush of NFL free agency took place. We've had enough fantasy mock drafts to see who's rising and falling as a result. Here are the top risers/decliners:
| MockDraftCentral.com top ADP risers | |||
| Player | Position | Team | Rise/Decline |
| Ray Rice Chad Ochocinco Roy Williams Tom Brady Philadelphia Eagles Larry Fitzgerald Julio Jones Ryan Williams | RB WR WR QB DEF WR WR RB | BAL NE CHI NE PHI ARI ATL ARI | QQ|>17.60|PERCENT| 12.40|PERCENT| 9.80|PERCENT| 8.60|PERCENT| 7.60|PERCENT| 7.50|PERCENT| 7.50|PERCENT| 7.50|PERCENT| |
| MockDraftCentral.com top ADP decliners | |||
| Tashard Choice Michael Turner Maurice Jones-Drew Rashard Mendenhall Arian Foster | RB RB RB RB RB | DAL ATL JAX PIT HOU | QQ|>-5.50|PERCENT| -6.30|PERCENT| -7.90|PERCENT| -9.80|PERCENT| -15.70|PERCENT| |
| ESPN top ADP risers | |||
| Tim Hightower Chad Ochocinco Roy Williams Plaxico Burress Eagles D/ST Beanie Wells Willis McGahee Ben Tate | RB WR WR WR D/ST RB RB RB | WAS NE CHI NYJ PHI ARI DEN HOU | QQ|>25.90|PERCENT| 20.20|PERCENT| 20.20|PERCENT| 19.90|PERCENT| 17.20|PERCENT| 16.20|PERCENT| 14.80|PERCENT| 13.80|PERCENT| |
The increase of Ray Rice may be thwarted by the Ravens signing Ricky Williams. Chad Ochocinco benefits from his move to the Patriots. Roy Williams could be a starter in Chicago. Larry Fitzgerald benefits from a new quarterback in Kevin Kolb. In the ESPN rankings, Tim Hightower goes from nothing to something with his move to Washington.
It's a bit odd that Ryan Williams is on the rise at MDC but Beanie Wells is on the rise at ESPN.
That's kind of a trend I'm seeing in ADP values across the web. Usually a groupthink develops after the NFL draft in April and after free agency. But this year with the abbreviated free agency period, a consensus among players hasn't yet developed. Everyone is still processing all the player movement.
Just check out these values:
Adrian Peterson vs. Arian Foster for the first pick:
-AP #2 on Yahoo
-AP #1 on ESPN
-AP #2 on MDC
Michael Turner's value varies a lot (although the prevalence of PPR formats is likely the cause)
-#9 on MDC
-#6 on Yahoo
-#15 on ESPN
Maurice Jones-Drew
-#6 on MDC
-#8 on ESPN
-#12 on Yahoo
-#12 on MDC
-#22 on ESPN
-#16 on Yahoo
-#55 on MDC
-#57 on ESPN
-#34 on Yahoo
Some of this is the inherent bias in the ADP rankings based on the default rankings and the most dominant scoring systems (these are all composite rankings from all scoring systems/league types), but my guess is that these rankings will fall more in unison as August progresses.