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AFC NORTH - Fantasy Preview

After looking at the NFC North, I'm continuing my division-by-division breakdown by rating the players of the AFC North on the three B's scale (Best, Bust, Buy-Low). Not to be ignored are the IDP's and schedule analysis. Fire away with any thoughts.



Best

Ray Rice, RB (BAL) – Rice finally got paid. Now that he's assured to be at the team's entire training camp, he resumes his place among the top-3 picks in fantasy. He's about as can't miss as they come.

Trent Richardson, RB (CLE) – The slate of defenses in the AFC North is daunting for any running back, let alone a rookie on a Cleveland team with the worst defense in the division and without much threat of a passing attack. Nevertheless, there are only a handful of backs in the league that will receive as many touches as Richardson, and there may not be many more with his natural ability. I wouldn't hesitate to take him as high as the sixth running back, especially in keeper formats.

A.J. Green, WR (CIN) – Green is in a select group of supreme young talents (Calvin Johnson, Victor Cruz, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas) that are the future of the position. He's a surefire top-10 wideout in just his second season.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB (PIT) – Big Ben will challenge for a slot in the back end of the top-10 quarterbacks for as long as he's able to shrug blitzers off his back and has adequate weapons to get the ball to. This is certainly not the year that will stop.

Antonio Brown, WR (PIT) – The 84.6 receiving yards per game Brown racked up over the Steelers' final 10 matchups would have been sixth in the league if maintained for the full schedule. As the team's best route runner, with strong hands and electric ability after the catch, Brown's yardage numbers could remain among the league's best. And judging from the three scores he put up in two preseason games, Brown should have no trouble improving upon the paltry two touchdowns he registered during the regular season.

Torrey Smith, WR (BAL) – Smith saw 10 fewer targets than his much-more polished veteran leader Anquan Boldin during his rookie year, yet he nearly matched him in yards and more than doubled him in scores. This year, the gifted deep threat will easily lead the team in targets and translate those opportunities into a statement season.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB (CIN) – The best laid plans don't always work out. So even though it may be the Bengals' intention to use a committee approach with their backfield, it won't pan out that way. The Law Firm will hold court the majority of the time, as he is simply the head-and-shoulders best back on the team. Bernard Scott may be speedier, but BJGE is the far more consistent runner and is an excellent goal line back. Green-Ellis will see a minimum of 250 carries and double digit scores is a strong possibility.

Greg Little, WR (CLE) – Little finished tied for 20th in targets last season as a raw rookie after a lockout-shortened offseason and following a year layoff due to a suspension that cost him his senior year at UNC. While he did struggle some with drops, he also dealt with shoddy quarterback play from Colt McCoy. The upgrade to Brandon Weeden, a full offseason and the fact that Cleveland added no receiver talent aside from supplemental draftee Josh Gordon and you have the recipe for a Little breakout.



Bust

Mike Wallace, WR (PIT) – After going on a major tear for the first seven games of the year, Wallace cooled off dramatically for the final nine weeks, during which he failed to register a single 100-yard effort and topped 70 yards just once. Defenses were able to consistently take Wallace out of games and severely limit his big plays by doubling him and keeping safety help over the top. If he wants to regain his once-elite form, he'll need to reinvent himself as a precise and more versatile route-runner, otherwise Wallace will be a serious disappointment to owners expecting the previously dominant vertical threat. And of course any time he holds out during the preseason is time he loses learning a new offense and refining his skills accordingly.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB (PIT) – Coming off a torn ACL and likely to begin the year on the PUP list, Mendenhall's a guy to stay away from. He struggled last year even when healthy and unless the run game falls flat on its face without him (it won't), the best he can hope for when he returns is about an even split of the carries, giving him very limited value and less upside than most late round backs.

Anquan Boldin, WR (BAL) – Boldin has always been lacking in the speed department but now, going into his 10th season and well into the downside of his career, he flat out looks like a slow-motion replay at times. His severe lack of big plays and sporadic disappearing acts make him an awfully low ceiling guy, particularly in a run-heavy offense and with the much more spry Smith poised to eat a big chunk of his targets.

Joe Flacco, QB (BAL) – The Ravens simply don't have the receiving weapons to support a full-time starting fantasy quarterback. And they certainly didn't add enough with the signing of Jacoby Jones this offseason. So for those who think they can get starters' numbers out of Flacco despite an aging Boldin, two average tight ends and just Rice and Smith to make big plays, think again.

Bernard Scott, RB (CIN) – Although it's hard to label a late-round flier a bust, Scott, wherever selected, will wind up a wasted pick. There are far too many other upside sleepers that can be snagged in the later rounds with more talent and better opportunities.

Ed Dickson, TE (BAL) – With the more polished Dennis Pitta likely to steal even more targets this season, Dickson will again struggle to produce with any consistency. He'll see enough red zone looks to potentially be a bye-week replacement, but he's otherwise not worthy of a draft choice as even a reserve tight end.



Buy-Low

Isaac Redman, RB (PIT) – Redman is expected to be a starting running back in a strong offense when Week 1 rolls around. When Mendenhall returns from injury though he'll likely see his role reduced some. Nevertheless, if he can be had after the first 20-25 backs he could be a great value. The chance remains that Mendenhall won't be back to 100|PERCENT| at all this year and that could lead to Redman seeing 250+ carries. In that event, Redman would easily outplay his draft position.

Andy Dalton, QB (CIN) – With both Green and Gresham solid candidates to reach double-digit scores as they continue improving individually and in their chemistry with Dalton, it's safe to say the 20 scores Dalton tossed as a rookie are his absolute floor. Add in the young talent of Mohamed Sanu, Marvin Jones and the return of Jordan Shipley, and I'd wager 24+ touchdowns is very realistic for his sophomore season, with at least a repeat of the 3,400 yards Dalton hit last year. That means high-end backup this year, starter the next.

Jermaine Gresham, TE (CIN) – Gresham has all the physical tools to emerge as a top-5 tight end, and as the clear-cut No. 2 Bengals option after Jerome Simpson skipped town, he should see more targets, particularly more vertical looks. With a full offseason to further the chemistry with his young QB, Gresham has the look of a major steal this year.

Mohamed Sanu, WR (CIN) – Sanu is a precise route-runner who works extremely hard at his craft and has the size and hands to develop into one of the league's better possession receivers. He will earn the starting job opposite Green and could well challenge for 50+ catches as a rookie, making him a decent add in PPR leagues in particular, with upside to be a focal point of the Cincy offense should an injury occur.

Jonathan Dwyer, RB (PIT) – If you're looking for an end of the bench running back with legit breakout potential, Dwyer is a prime candidate. He can be had extremely late in drafts and should enter the season as the clear backup to Redman until Mendenhall returns from a likely stay on the PUP list. With what should be a much-improved Steelers' offensive line, if Redman struggles at all or gets injured, Dwyer could see a good workload in the season's first half and possibly longer if Mendenhall suffers a setback.



Top IDP's

D'Qwell Jackson, LB (CLE) – His last two full seasons (2011 and 2008), Jackson has been an absolute monster IDP among the elite of the elite. In those two years he piled up a whopping 312 total tackles 5.5 sacks and four interceptions. Even with his health concerns he should be one of the first three IDP's taken in any draft. 

Ray Lewis, LB (BAL) – Ray Lewis doesn't age and he doesn't slow down. He just gets smarter and perhaps even a little nastier. Even missing four games last year he racked up 95 tackles and a couple sacks. With Terrell Suggs out this year, expect him to do even more.

Lawrence Timmons, LB (PIT) – James Farrior's retirement left behind a boatload of tackles to make up, and Timmons, the team's young buck in the middle, who is just a year removed from a 135-tackle breakout, should benefit the most.

LaMarr Woodley, LB (PIT) – Woodley can be a bit boom or bust, but he's such a force rushing the passer that he can be counted on for more big weeks than duds. He has the upside to be the AFC's version of DeMarcus Ware.

James Harrison, LB (PIT) – Harrison may be 34, but he put together a season with 100 total tackles and double-digit sacks just two years ago. And he's the only player to achieve such a feat in the past 10 years. And he's done it twice.

Bernard Pollard, DB (BAL) – Pollard is one of the hardest-hitting safeties in the league and has notched at least 90 tackles in four of the five past years while forcing a slew of fumbles. Few defensive backs have as much upside in the tackle department.

Troy Polamalu, DB (PIT) – If this future Hall of Famer can marry the seven picks he had in 2010 with the 90+ tackles he registered last year, he'll be a major stud IDP. Either way, Polamalu always finds ways to contribute and is well worth a draft pick for his steady play.

Lardarius Webb, DB (BAL) – Webb is a playmaking corner who's not afraid to come up to the line and deliver a big hit. Though he only posted 67 total tackles, he snatched five picks and took one to the house to make up for it. He's also a dynamic punt returner capable of adding a score in any game.

Jabaal Sheard, DE (CLE) – This young speed rusher has tremendous upside as a d-line IDP. He registered 8.5 sacks as a rookie while finishing tied for third in the league with five forced fumbles. And he's no slouch as a tackler either, posting 55 total stops on the year. The arrow is pointing way up for Sheard.

Ryan Clark, DB (PIT) – With four straight seasons of at least 85 total tackles culminating in a career-high 100 last year, Clark has proven himself as a very safe DB IDP.

Thomas Howard, LB (CIN) – Howard was quietly productive last year, as his 99 total tackles led the Bengals defense. In fact he's been an under the radar producer most of his career, with at least four seasons hitting the 95-tackle mark in just six years.

Reggie Nelson, DB (CIN) – In a career year, Nelson did a bit of everything for Cincy. He racked up 85 total tackles, notched two sacks and recorded four picks with one going for a score. If he's able to come close to a repeat, Nelson will be a high-end defensive back.

Rey Maualuga, LB (CIN) – Maualuga has yet to live up to his potential or produce consistently as a pro, but it's still hard to ignore the 88 total tackles he reached in just 13 games last year.

Haloti Ngata, DT (BAL) – Ngata won't reach double-digit sacks and he's not going to pile up huge tackle totals, but he will consistently disrupt offensive backfields and make enough plays to be a useful IDP, with the occasional big week.

Ahtyba Rubin, DT (CLE) – In deeper leagues that don't weigh sacks considerably more than tackles, Rubin is well worth a look as a defensive line IDP. Though he only posted five sacks last year, he's topped 80 total tackles in each of the past two seasons.

Ed Reed, DB (BAL) – This future Hall of Famer has seasons of nine and eight interceptions in just the past four years, so even though he fell off a bit in 2011, he cannot be ignored. His tackle totals limit his upside and make him at best a risky draft pick, but if you need a big week or the Ravens face a shaky passing offense, he's definitely worth a roll of the dice.

Carlos Dunlap, DE (CIN) – By posting 9.5 sacks in just 12 games as a rookie, Dunlap showed that he can really get after the quarterback. Unfortunately, that's all he can do, and he even struggled at that last year. Even still, he's worth watching in case he realizes his full potential this season.

Courtney Upshaw, LB/DE (BAL) – Though he's very much a poor man's version of the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Upshaw should get plenty of opportunities to step in and post the versatile sack and tackle totals that Suggs (Achilles) would normally provide.



Schedule

The AFC North squares off with the AFC West & NFC East in 2012.

Baltimore Ravens

Bye Week: 8

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ Washington
Week 15 vs. Denver
Week 16 vs. New York Giants
Week 17 @ Cincinnati

Overall: Possibly the league's toughest slate of pass-rushing talent will keep Flacco under consistent fire all season. But with his height and big arm, he should be able to beat it enough to make the pass game better than average. Meanwhile, Rice should have plenty of running room with just the Texans and Steelers as likely exceptions.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Bye Week: 4

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. San Diego
Week 15 @ Dallas
Week 16 vs. Cincinnati
Week 17 vs. Cleveland

Overall: Roethlisberger and his younger offensive line will be tested heavily by the likes of the Giants' and Eagles' star-studded d-lines and stellar stand-up rushers like DeMarcus Ware, Tamba Hali, Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan and Von Miller. But with just the likes of Baltimore capable of regularly slowing the run, Redman, Dwyer and possibly Mendenhall should keep some of the blitz-happy defenses honest.

Cincinnati Bengals

Bye Week: 8

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. Dallas
Week 15 @ Philadelphia
Week 16 @ Pittsburgh
Week 17 vs. Baltimore

Overall: Any Green owners will not like that playoff slate, particularly the two road games. The final two weeks could also spell trouble for those relying on the legs of The Law Firm, as the Steelers and Ravens routinely have two of the toughest run defenses in the league. The earlier schedule is not as daunting as a whole, though they obviously get their tough divisional foes once more each and a trip to Kansas City will be a difficult test.

Cleveland Browns

Bye Week: 10

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. Kansas City
Week 15 vs. Washington
Week 16 @ Denver
Week 17 @ Pittsburgh

Overall: The divisional contests certainly are not pretty and Kansas City and the entire NFC East pose significant threats. However, if Richardson is the real deal, he should be able to run on every team not named Pittsburgh or Baltimore. As for the air game though, the glut of tremendous pass rushers they face could make Weeden's rookie year quite painful.