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NFC SOUTH - Fantasy Preview

After looking at the AFC North, I'm continuing my division-by-division breakdown by rating the players of the NFC South on the three B's scale (Best, Bust, Buy-Low). Not to be ignored are the IDP's and schedule analysis. Fire away with any thoughts.



Best

Drew Brees, QB (NO) – There are 5,476 reasons to take Brees in the first round of all leagues, and none of those is Sean Payton. Calling most of his own plays, Brees will once again destroy opposing defenses and may topple his own yardage record.

Cam Newton, QB (CAR) – He's the most multi-dimensional quarterback the league has seen since Randall Cunningham. It's easy to say he can't repeat the 14 rushing scores he racked up last year. But who is to say he won't actually surpass them? He had 13 through 12 games last year. And what if he improves his passing numbers? By all accounts Newton is an incredibly hard worker and perhaps the best athlete the position has ever seen.

Julio Jones, WR (ATL) – Only a small contingent of receivers have the upside to best Calvin Johnson as the game's most productive wideout. Jones is right at the top of that group. He is the second coming of Andre Johnson but perhaps a bit more athletic and with a better nose for the end zone.

Jimmy Graham, TE (NO) – Last year was just a precursor of things to come for Graham. It was not his ceiling. He barely played college ball and that was just his second pro season. Consider him a lock for double-digit scores and at least 1,200 yards.

Doug Martin, RB (TB) – Martin may not have won the feature back role yet according to coach Greg Schiano, but it's really just a matter of time during the preseason. Martin is significantly more well-rounded as a pass-protector and receiver than LeGarrette Blount and he's every bit as gifted a runner. He reminds me of a cross between Ray Rice and Matt Forte, and playing behind the best run-blocking line in football should lead to a statement rookie season.

Roddy White, WR (ATL) – White may no longer be the Falcons' top receiver, but that doesn't mean he won't see a huge number of targets. He and Jones should combine for around 300 looks in an increasingly pass-heavy offense. No receiver has produced as consistently over the past five seasons, and while White will fall off some as Jones steps to the forefront of the offense, he's still a complete receiver who will benefit from more single coverage.

Darren Sproles, RB (NO) – One of the toughest guys in the league to bring to the ground, Sproles is a near lock for 1,200+ scrimmage yards in the Saints' high-octane offense. In PPR leagues he's a top 10-12 back and in standard formats he shouldn't finish lower than about 20. There are just so many ways he can kill the opposition and he's a threat to score on any run, catch or return.

Matt Ryan, QB (ATL) – Ryan posted serious top-10 numbers last year while only getting Jones for 12 games. Against a fairly light schedule, in an offense that will pass a bit more and with Jones for a full season, Ryan has a strong shot for 4,500 yards and 30+ scores. He's entered the discussion for the Tony Romo - Eli Manning - Philip Rivers tier and is the safest quarterback after they come off the board.

Marques Colston, WR (NO) – No more Robert Meachem stealing targets will provide a few extra balls for Brees' second favorite target. That means another big year can be expected out of Colston, even if he may lose more red zone looks to Graham.



Bust

Michael Turner, RB (ATL) – Atlanta is expected to reduce Turner's number of carries to try and keep him fresher for the latter part of the season. Even if that ends up not being the case, we're still talking about a 30-year-old back who has received over 1,200 carries in four years. A breakdown or steep drop off in effectiveness could be right around the corner for The Burner, and he's no longer worth the price to see if it's this year.

Steve Smith, WR (CAR) – Though Newton's legs and arm will not be slowed this year, opposing defenses will force him to beat them with his other toys. Smith will see a lot of blanket double-team coverage and won't come close to the nearly 1,400 receiving yards he registered last year. With Brandon LaFell stepping up and David Gettis returning, Smith will actually fall about 300 yards off that pace.

Vincent Jackson, WR (TB) – Despite the solid totals last year, Jackson was a disappointment, going for six or fewer points in nine games. And now he loses Rivers' arm and enters what is widely expected to be a run-heavy offense. Even if he does lead Tampa in targets, the career average of 6.8 yards per pass attempt for Josh Freeman suggests that Jackson's career average of 17.5 yards per catch will drop significantly, making the one-trick-pony deep-threat just an average fantasy receiver.

Mike Tolbert, RB (CAR) – This isn't exactly breaking news since Tolbert joined an already crowded Carolina backfield that has their quarterback do all the heavy lifting at the goal line. Having been an excellent source of touchdowns the past two seasons though, it's worth noting that Tolbert is now worthless to fantasy owners as long as Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams are healthy.

Mark Ingram, RB (NO) – Too many things are working against Ingram finding much success in New Orleans. The team could be even more pass-happy without Payton calling the plays, and even when they do run, there's too much competition for carries. And, frankly, he may be just the fourth-best back on this team. Pierre Thomas has a better overall skillset, Sproles handles the big plays and Chris Ivory has more size and burst. Throw in his inability to stay healthy and you have the recipe for a disappointing career for Ingram.



Buy-Low

Jonathan Stewart, RB (CAR) – The Daily Show has as much talent as pretty much any back in the league. He's built like a tank, boasts plenty of speed and has no trouble punching it in near the goal line. And last year he added a significant receiving dimension to his arsenal. Sure his backfield is the most crowded in the league and Newton will steal plenty of short rushing scores, but considering the tremendous discount he can be had for, the upside is too sweet to pass on. He still came close to 1,200 total yards last year and if D-Will and/or Tolbert goes down, Stewart could be a beast and a season-maker.

DeAngelo Williams, RB (CAR) – Just as Stewart could be a stud if Williams or Tolbert went down, D-Will himself would be no slouch if something happened to either of his backfield mates. Though he lacks the power of either Stewart or Tolbert, and likely won't be involved in the receiving game as much, Williams is an extremely dynamic runner who's posted an impressive 5.1 yards-per-carry average for his career. In fact, he tied for third in the league with 11 carries of at least 20 yards last year despite receiving 48 fewer carries than anyone else to achieve that mark. Like Stewart, his value is too solid given how cheaply his talent can be obtained.

LeGarrette Blount, RB (TB) – Sure, he's had some fumble issues. And yes, Blount is far from a reliable receiving threat. And maybe he can't block too well either. But he can sure bulldoze through would-be tacklers when he's not jumping over their heads. In a sensationally surprising rookie year (just two years ago), Blount was the Tampa highlight reel for much of the season. He's going absurdly low in drafts (his ADP is 161 currently on Mock Draft Central) and even if Martin takes the starting job Blount could be a battering ram near the goal line and just one injury away from another stellar year.

Josh Freeman, QB (TB) – Freeman is just two years removed from a breakout season that he put up with an almost entirely rookie receiving corps. Now he's added V-Jax to open up the passing game, has a more experienced group of complementary receivers led by Mike Williams and a stud rookie back with soft hands. Freeman also should reap the rewards of a much-improved line and run game to set up the pass. Expect him to once again perform as one of the top backup QB's in fantasy.

Mike Williams, WR (TB) – His rookie breakout was completely offset by a miserable second year in which Williams barely caught 50|PERCENT| of his targets for a paltry 11.9 yards per grab and a pitiful three scores. So he will carry nowhere near the price tag this offseason that he did last year. Since he's admitted to not putting in the necessary work during the 2011 offseason, a more hungry, dedicated receiver should show up to training camp prepped for a big third year. And with Jackson taking tremendous pressure off him as the team's No. 1 target, Williams will emerge as a highly efficient and productive possession receiver, well worth a mid-round buy.

Lance Moore, WR (NO) – The departed Meachem's 61 targets have to go somewhere, and with Graham, Colston and Sproles drawing so much attention, this crafty slot weapon with sure hands should continue seeing plenty of love from Brees. Considering he's had at least eight scores in three of the past four seasons, I'd say you could do much worse than Moore as a late-round bench pick.

Tony Gonzalez, TE (ATL) – Gonzalez may be the youngest old man in the league next to Ray Lewis. He keeps himself in amazing condition and just keeps producing at a high level. With Ryan throwing it all over the field and Jones and White drawing a ton of coverage on the outside, Gonzalez will continue to defy Father Time.

Brandon LaFell, WR (CAR) – Newton will need to spread the ball around more this season and that should translate to a huge boost in targets for LaFell, who saw just 56 last year. If he can come anywhere near the 10.9 yards per target he posted in 2011, LaFell could be in for a major breakout campaign.

Greg Olsen, TE (CAR) – The targets will be there for Olsen, and if he and Newton can improve their chemistry entering their second season together, he could be a great sleeper tight end. Olsen caught just half of his 90 looks last year. If that number goes up to 60|PERCENT| or better, he could approach 8-10 scores as the team's best red zone target.

Pierre Thomas, RB (NO) – Thomas is the most complete back in New Orleans. He runs like a pinball, rarely going down at first contact and often breaking runs he has no right breaking. It's clear when he touches the ball that he simply wants it more than other runners. That may not amount to a ton of touches for the Saints, but with Ingram having numerous injury issues on a consistent basis and Sproles being too tiny to be the lead back, Thomas could exceed the 987 total yards and six scores he registered last year in a huge timeshare.

Chris Ivory, RB (NO) – The biggest threat to Thomas' success will be Ivory, and there is a chance that he could be leaned on as the feature back if Ingram does struggle to see the field. Thomas remains the better option, but the bigger Ivory has been impressive with his opportunities the past two seasons. He may also be an injury risk, but is still worth the gamble as he can be had at the very end of drafts.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB (ATL) – As the Falcons continue their slow transition away from their pounding Turner days into more of an aerial-based speed attack, Rodgers should come into play more. The dynamic mighty mite is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and a candidate for 40-50 catches and 125-150 total touches in his second season as Atlanta tries to turn him into Darren Sproles Lite.



Top IDP's

Sean Weatherspoon, LB (ATL) – In just his second year Weatherspoon went off for 115 total tackles and four sacks. With Curtis Lofton skipping town for the rival Saints though, he could be poised for an even bigger breakout. An incredible athlete who flies to the ball, expect a rise in tackles and more forced turnovers and sacks.

Curtis Lofton, LB (NO) – As the Mike backer in Atlanta the past four seasons, Lofton piled up just shy of 500 total tackles. While he isn't going to provide many sacks or big plays, he's a pure tackling machine and should assume that same role in the middle for New Orleans.

Luke Kuechly, LB (CAR) – Though he'll have to contend for tackles with two highly proven veterans playing right next to him, Kuechly has all the tools to lead a trio of tackle machines in stops. He was absurdly productive in his three years at Boston College and his recognition skills, range in coverage and perfect wrap-up form will make him one of the game's best linebackers for a long time to come.

Jon Beason, LB (CAR) – Beason was a dominant IDP for his first four years prior to tearing his Achilles in Week 1 of 2011. If he can regain that same form as he returns to the middle of a Carolina defense that will be anchored by their backers, he could once again pile up the tackles in huge bunches.

James Anderson, LB (CAR) – Anderson has been a beast for the Panthers the past two years with 199 solo stops (275 total) and five sacks in that span. While he is likely to cede a number of those tackles to Kuechly and Beason, he could still be an impact IDP, especially if Beason struggles to return from his injury.

David Hawthorne, LB (NO) – Three years starting in Seattle saw Hawthorne emerge as one of the quieter IDP forces in the league. In that span he compiled over 110 total tackles per year while also totaling seven interceptions and six sacks. Though he'll have to move to the outside in New Orleans with Lofton in the middle, he should see a ton of opportunities for big plays when teams are forced into shootouts with Brees and Co.

Akeem Dent, LB (ATL) – Someone has to assume the nearly 150 tackles Lofton accounted for last season, and since Weatherspoon can't take them all, Dent should acquire a fair share of them as the hard-hitting second-year man steps into the vacated middle linebacker spot.

Mark Barron, DB (TB) – Barron was not taken in the top-10 of the draft to watch from the sidelines. He'll start at strong safety from the moment he enters training camp and with his instincts and hard-hitting ways, he should produce plenty of tackles and turnovers in this pass-happy division.

Lavonte David, LB (TB) – David should step in and immediately start as an outside backer for the Bucs and challenge Mason Foster for the team lead in tackles. He is not only a true sideline-to-sideline player with elite athleticism and recognition skills for the position, but he's also a more than capable rusher. He totaled 11.5 sacks in just two years at Nebraska and should be a disruptive force all over the field for Tampa from the opening kickoff of 2012.

Roman Harper, DB (NO) – Harper has averaged 95 total takedowns for each of the past five seasons, with at least 70 solo stops each year. While the incredible 7.5 sacks he produced from his safety position in 2011 are almost unrepeatable, they do serve as a clear indication that he can still make big plays despite his lack of instincts in coverage.

Mason Foster, LB (TB) – As a 16-game starter, Foster was a big disappointment his rookie year manning the middle of the Bucs' defense. He totaled just 84 tackles even though the Tampa front was a complete sieve, giving up a league-worst 2,500 rushing yards. A full offseason of preparation and new coaching staff gives reason for optimism though. All the physical tools are there for Foster to excel if he can put it together in Year 2.

Adrian Clayborn, DE (TB) – Though he only posted 42 total tackles, Clayborn has the motor to boost that number in his second season and he was just scratching the surface of his potential with his 7.5-sack debut. This bull-rushing overachiever should blow past that sack number en route to a breakout year.

Charles Johnson, DE (CAR) – Even with a drop-off from his breakout 2010, Johnson still posted nine sacks last year. If he can regain the form that saw him rack up over 60 tackles to go with double-digit sacks in his big year, he could again be one of the top d-line IDP's.



Schedule

The NFC South squares off with the NFC East & AFC West in 2012.

New Orleans Saints

Bye Week: 6

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ New York Giants
Week 15 vs. Tampa Bay
Week 16 @ Dallas
Week 17 vs. Carolina

Overall: This offense is like a runaway freight train. It simply can't be stopped. It may be slowed down, but Brees and Co. will get theirs just about every week, regardless of the coaching turmoil facing them this year. They are particularly dominant at home, where they get the majority of their stiffer competition this year with San Fran, Kansas City, Philadelphia and Washington all coming to them. Visits to the Giants and Cowboys during playoff time could be slight hiccups, but nothing their passing game can't carve up if the line protection is even decent.

Atlanta Falcons

Bye Week: 7

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 @ Carolina
Week 15 vs. New York Giants
Week 16 @ Detroit
Week 17 vs. Tampa Bay

Overall: Working in Atlanta's favor is the fact that this should be the weakest division—possibly by a long shot—on the defensive side of the ball. With such weak pass rushes and limited secondaries, the Falcons should feast on their divisional foes through the air, and in doing so, set up the run nicely. Week 1 in Kansas City and the NFC East slate provide the only real speed bumps, but there's still enough firepower in this offense to succeed in most of those contests.

Carolina Panthers

Bye Week: 6

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. Atlanta
Week 15 @ San Diego
Week 16 vs. Oakland
Week 17 @ New Orleans

Overall: The pass rushes of the Giants and Eagles and overall strengths of the Chiefs in Arrowhead may cause headaches for Newton, but with a stable of gifted running backs and his own legs to rely on, there are only about three defenses in the league I'd trust to really limit the Panthers' playmakers. And they face none this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bye Week: 5

Playoff Matchups:
Week 14 vs. Philadelphia
Week 15 @ New Orleans
Week 16 vs. St. Louis
Week 17 @ Atlanta

Overall: The Bucs' new regime under coach Schiano will be tested early and often with a four-game stretch from Weeks 2-5 that reads @ Giants, @ Cowboys, vs. Redskins, vs. Chiefs. That should be cause for a down week or two from much of their skill talent, but the crop of young gifted players they boast should find the remaining schedule a cake walk. Save for a potential playoff visit from the Eagles, Freeman and the Bucs get an awfully soft looking overall schedule for the second time in three years. And that weak competition in 2010 provided some surprisingly useful fantasy talent from a group of less experienced guys. Translation: Own a Buc or two this year.