This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Kansas State (+5½) at Iowa State
Iowa State looked impressive against non-conference opponents early in the season, but it's significantly struggled since conference season started. Against Big 12 opponents, Iowa State ranks last in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, offensive rebounding rate, free-throw attempt rate and blocked-shot allowed rate. On the other side of the court, Iowa State ranks third lowest in the conference in defensive efficiency and last in two-point field goal percentage allowed, three-point percentage allowed and free-throw attempt rate allowed. Kansas State, meanwhile, has performed better against Big 12 opponents, ranking fifth in the conference in offensive efficiency, as well as first in offensive turnover rate and third in three-point field goal percentage. Iowa State's overall numbers might look better because of the results from non-conference season, but when comparing Kansas State and Iowa State during conference season alone, Kansas State has been the better team. I'll take the points.
Ohio State (+2½) at Michigan
These teams match up pretty evenly, with both leaning on the offensive side of the ball to carry them. That said, Ohio State's offensive attack has been slightly better this season, ranking sixth in the country with its adjusted offensive efficiency rating, per KenPom. The Buckeyes have been particularly effective with scoring inside, making 53.4 percent of two-point attempts against Big Ten opponents, the second-highest percentage in the conference. This is noteworthy because Michigan's defense has been noticeably soft on the inside, allowing conference opponents to make 53.5 percent of two-point attempts, the second-lowest percentage allowed in the Big Ten. Overall, the Buckeyes appear to be the better team, even if only by a slim margin, so they're my pick for this game. Having the best player on the court in the form of E.J. Liddell also helps. We'll see if Hunter Dickinson proves me wrong.
Penn State (+1) at Minnesota
Minnesota might not be the worst team in the Big Ten, but it's hard to argue the Gophers haven't been second worst. Since conference season started, Minnesota ranks last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage allowed and two-point field goal percentage allowed. Minnesota has performed slightly better on the offensive side, ranking 11th in the Big Ten with its offensive efficiency, though that hasn't changed the terrible results. Minnesota's conference record since New Year's Day is 1-9, with the lone win being a three-point home victory against Rutgers. Penn State has wins over the likes of Indiana, Northwestern and Iowa, so the Nittany Lions appear to be the more capable team. The key for Penn State is its stout defense, which ranks 42nd in the country with its overall adjusted defensive efficiency rating, as well as ranking sixth in the Big Ten during conference season. Minnesota might play tough at home, desperate for a win, but I believe Penn State will ultimately pull away and earn a victory, thanks to its defense.
Mississippi at Missouri (-1½)
Neither of these teams has played great, with both recording just three conference victories. Missouri has looked slightly better, defeating Mississippi on the road in their first encounter back on Jan. 18, as well as taking down Alabama on Jan. 8. It's important to note that Missouri has played the fourth-most difficult schedule in the country, per KenPom, so the Tigers shouldn't be discounted just based on their record. Also, Mississippi has had a soft defense during conference play, ranking 12th in the SEC in defensive efficiency. It's been much more vulnerable on the inside, allowing SEC opponents to make 57.7 percent of two-point attempts, the second-highest percentage allowed in the conference. Missouri dominated both halves in the first game against Mississippi earlier this season, suggesting a highly favorable matchup for the Tigers. I'll take the home team.
