This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have another quiet night on the high-major college basketball front, but thankfully we still have a pair of intriguing matchups on the slate. Here are my predictions for Friday's most notable games.
Michigan State 
at Wisconsin 
Michigan State is playing much like last year's team, which is no surprise considering it's essentially the same squad minus Joey Hauser. Through 19 games last year, the Spartans were 13-6 overall and 5-3 in conference, and this year they're sitting at 12-7 and 4-4. One would think another year of cohesion would benefit Michigan State, and the efficiency numbers are marginally better, but even still, this team hasn't dominated as often as one might expect given the preseason expectations. Michigan State was picked to finish second and garnered four first-place votes in the preseason Big Ten media poll, but instead, it's currently in a sixth-place tie with Indiana. Either way, the Spartans only have one impressive win, a 22-point victory against Baylor, so this year's team still has a lot to prove.
Wisconsin, in contrast, returned a significant portion of last year's roster and the team made a massive leap. The Badgers are ranked eighth in the nation in roster continuity, per KenPom, and they added transfer AJ Storr and freshman John Blackwell, producing a well-rounded team, much improved over last year. Entering Friday, Wisconsin ranks 11th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart and boasts the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating, the team's two highest marks since head coach Greg Gard began leading the program.
We don't have to wonder about what might happen when these two teams tangle on Friday because it already happened, back on December 5th. Wisconsin won at Michigan State, 70-57, in a hardly competitive game. The Badgers held an 11-point halftime lead and never looked back.
In looking at how these teams have performed since their last encounter, I'm expecting a similar outcome in the rematch, as not much has changed since then. Through eight conference games, Wisconsin ranks second in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage, first in three-point field goal percentage, first in two-point field goal percentage, first in free-throw percentage, and second in free-throw attempt rate, making the Badgers the best scoring team in the Big Ten outside of Purdue. Michigan State, on the other hand, ranks sixth in offensive efficiency and is making under 49 percent of shots inside the arc, the third-worst percentage in the Big Ten. The Spartans are playing slightly better at the other end of the court, recording the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten, slightly better than Wisconsin, coming in at seventh.
Michigan State also has a daunting challenge because, like most college teams, it hasn't fared well away from its home arena. The Spartans have played in six games outside the state of Michigan, and they lost five of them, with the lone win coming in their recent trip to Maryland, where they won, 61-59, in a nail-biter that came down to the final shot. Based on its track record this season, and how the first game unfolded at the Breslin Center, I'm betting that Michigan State is going to have a difficult time scoring against Wisconsin. The Spartans scored a season-low the last time they met up, and now they have to travel to Madison for the rematch. I'm laying the points with the Badgers.
Additionally, I'm also betting on a low-scoring game. Both teams strongly prefer playing at a slower pace, likely leading to fewer possessions in Friday's game. Last year, Michigan State ranked 306th in adjusted tempo, and this year it's ranked at 277th. And not to be outdone, Wisconsin ranked 337th in pace last year, and this year it's ranked at 327th. College basketball is full of surprises, but I like our odds of seeing a slow and grinding defensive battle. I'm also on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Wisconsin -2.5 and Under 137.5
Stanford 
at California 
Stanford's offense is the best unit on the court, and it's not close. Since the conference season started, the Cardinal have the third-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 while also boasting the highest effective field goal percentage and highest three-point percentage, making an astounding 48 percent of shots from behind the arc against league foes. For the whole season, Stanford is making 40 percent from three-point range, so these numbers during conference play aren't a fluke.
California, meanwhile, hasn't played great defensively for most of the season. The Golden Bears rank 177th in defensive efficiency, easily the worst ranking among Pac-12 teams. They have played slightly better at times against league opponents, but the results are still ultimately the same. They allowed 100 points to Arizona, 82 points to USC, and 80 points to Oregon, consistently failing to hold up against the better offensive teams in the league. To be fair, California did outscore Colorado, 82-78, although the offense needed to put up 80 points to get the job done.
We're keeping things simple with this one. Stanford has played better on both ends of the court, and it's one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation. If it were traveling a further distance to play a defensively oriented team, or just a stronger team in general, I would have an entirely different prediction, but based on all the information at hand, I like Stanford's chances of traveling across the Bay and earning a win. I'm going with the Cardinal in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford +2
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Wisconsin -2.5
- Michigan State at Wisconsin - Under 137.5
- Stanford +2
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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