This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Steve Peralta offers his three favorite college basketball betting plays for Saturday's busy slate.
Providence vs Miami
Providence and Miami enter this game undefeated on the season at 3-0, but this matchup marks the first actual test for either team. Both teams up to this point have only played against lower-tiered opponents and only at home, and now they face each other in a neutral-site game, or at least that's how it's listed. KenPom currently projects a 72-70 victory for Miami in a matchup at a neutral location, but this game is actually taking place about 60 miles away from the Friars' campus. Hard not to think of this as a semi-home game for Providence, which would usually be worth at least a point or two.
In addition to location, Providence has a few other significant advantages that can get overlooked when just looking at overall data. The Friars hold an edge over the Hurricanes in several key categories, such as effective field goal percentage, offensive turnover rate, offensive rebounding rate, free throw attempt rate and three-point percentage. The latter is particularly noteworthy, as the Friars are collectively making over 41 percent of their three-point attempts.
This game will likely come down to the last couple of minutes, and in that case, I'd rather have the team that's better at rebounding, drawing fouls and shooting. Playing near your home campus doesn't hurt either. I'll take the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Providence +2.5
UC Irvine at Pepperdine
Pepperdine is an "over" machine. In three games against D1 competition this season, the Waves are averaging 89 points per game, putting up at least 71 points in all three contests. The current total of 143 would've hit in all of Pepperdine's games. This is mostly due to the Waves' style of play. Pepperdine coach Lorenzo Romar has consistently led teams with a strong offensive attack and extremely fast tempo, often at the expense of defense. Pepperdine currently ranks No. 108 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 238 on defense, all while playing at the 11th fastest tempo on offense.
The other key matchup note: both teams are extremely proficient at shooting the ball. Pepperdine is making 45 percent of its three-point attempts as a team, the 10th-highest percentage among all D1 teams. If that's not enough, the Waves are also making 62 percent of their two-point attempts, the 14th-best percentage. Likewise, UC Irvine is making 42 percent of its shots from behind the arc, the 30th-highest mark in the country.
In its most recent game, Pepperdine defeated D2 opponent Vanguard in a shootout, with a final score of 94-80. Similarly, UC Irvine had no problem putting up 79 points against a Loyola Marymount team that has a stronger defense than Pepperdine's. All in all, this matchup should yield a high-scoring game. I like the over in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 143
Portland St. at Oregon St.
Oregon State is coming off its worst season in recent memory, winning just three games. Amazingly, this year's team has already matched that total, starting the season at 3-0. Don't let its record fool you, though, as this Oregon State team still has a lot to prove. One of its wins came against Bushnell, a D2 team, while another win came against Florida A&M, the fifth-lowest rated team in overall adjusted efficiency margin among all 363 D1 teams.
Additionally, the Beavers are one of the most inexperienced teams in the country, ranking No. 330 in that category. A young team is full of uncertainty and inconsistency, leaving them liable to make many mistakes. The latter point deserves special emphasis because Portland State has been effective at causing turnovers on defense this season, ranking No. 112 in defensive turnover rate. Even better for the Vikings, Portland State has the third-lowest offensive turnover rate in the country.
Given the matchup here, the Vikings have a high probability of winning the turnover battle. I'll go with the points in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Portland St. +8
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Providence Friars +2.5
- UC Irvine at Pepperdine - Over 143
- Portland St. Vikings +8
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
