This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
And now we've arrived at the Final Four. Here is my breakdown for the penultimate round of the college hoops season.
North Carolina State 
vs. Purdue 
NC State is on a magical run, winning its last nine games en route to the Final Four. The Wolfpack had not won more than four consecutive games at any point before the ACC tournament, making this current hot streak highly improbable. Most of the attention has been focused on likable big man DJ Burns, for good reason. Still, it's also important to note that head coach Kevin Keatts inserted point guard Michael O'Connell and forward Mohamed Diarra into the starting lineup in February, a pair of pivotal moves that seemingly ignited the team and propelled it to a higher level. Even though the moves didn't lead to an immediate winning streak, it's paying off handsomely, with the team playing its best basketball of the season on both ends of the court. According to KenPom, NC State held Marquette to its third-least-efficient offensive performance of the season, and the Wolfpack followed up that game by limiting Duke to its least efficient offensive game.
When the Wolfpack have the ball, they do two things well that can help keep them in the game. First, NC State is extremely careful, logging the ninth-lowest offensive turnover percentage among all D1 teams. Purdue seldom forces turnovers on defense, ranking 343rd in that category, so the Wolfpack will likely hoist up a shot on most possessions. The Wolfpack is also effective on the offensive glass, ranking fourth in the ACC in offensive rebounding percentage during conference play. Purdue is no slouch at securing defensive boards, but still, NC State's penchant for finding offensive rebounds will undoubtedly help its chances of succeeding on Saturday.
When the Boilermakers have the ball, their elite offensive attack faces a defense that doesn't look particularly stout on paper, but as mentioned above, it's playing significantly better over the past month. The Wolfpack also does one thing well that gives them at least one edge on this side of the court, that is, cause turnovers. NC State posted the fourth-best defensive turnover percentage in the ACC during league play, an important attribute because it's also the same category where Purdue has its only offensive flaw. The Boilermakers ranked eighth in the Big Ten in offensive turnover percentage, a noticeable drop off compared to the top-tier rankings in most other offensive categories, thereby likely giving the Wolfpack some fast break and easy transition opportunities on Saturday.
It's tough to bet against Zach Edey and company, but then again, DJ Burns and the Wolfpack are also difficult to fade at this stage in the tournament. The Wolfpack are hot on the court and they're also hot in the books, as they have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, according to Action Network. NC State has already easily handled several great teams during this run, defeating North Carolina, Texas Tech, Marquette, and Duke, with each victory coming by at least eight points. The Boilermakers will likely advance to the tournament final, but I'm betting the Wolfpack will make them work for it until the final minute. I'm taking the points in this matchup.
Additionally, NC State prefers playing at a faster tempo, ranking 116th in the nation in average offensive possession length. Purdue is more neutral when it comes to pace, aligning near the D1 average in adjusted tempo, although it has shown its willingness to run when the mood fits. The Boilermakers defeated Utah State 106-67 in the Round of 32 in a game that saw 74 possessions, so they are not the type of team to shy away from a track meet. This was also the case when they encountered Alabama and Arizona back in December, two games that saw the point totals top 170 points and over 70 possessions. For these reasons, I'm also going with the over in this game.
College Basketball Best Bet: NC State +9.5 and Over 146
Alabama 
vs. Connecticut 
The defending national champs are seemingly unbeatable. Connecticut has ranked at or near the top of KenPom's offensive efficiency standings for most of the season, and now its defense nearly matches it. The Huskies are still scoring points at a high rate, but now their defense is single-handedly powering them through the tournament.
According to KenPom, UConn's defense held Stetson, San Diego State and Illinois to a season-worst in offensive efficiency. Northwestern also shared a similar fate, held to its third-worst offensive game of the season. It's tempting to say that Alabama's explosive offensive attack will be UConn's toughest test yet, but that's not necessarily true. Illinois had the second-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation before it played UConn and lost 77-52. The Huskies also soundly defeated Gonzaga, 76-63, and Creighton, 62-48 earlier in the season, two opponents with offensive efficiency ratings that rank in the top 10 among all D1 teams.
When Alabama has the ball, its signature style is a relentless barrage of three-pointers combined with aggressive drives toward the rim. This has worked well against most teams, but as Illinois found out last Saturday, it's not a recipe for success against Connecticut. The Huskies collected 10 blocks and held Illinois to 11-of-44 from inside the arc and 6-of-23 from outside, the kind of all-around defensive performance that doesn't bode well for the Crimson Tide. Connecticut ranks second in the nation in two-point field goal percentage allowed and third in effective field goal percentage allowed, so the results from the Illinois game were no aberration. Additionally, Alabama frequently has its shots get blocked, ranking 347th in offensive shot block percentage, not the ideal trait when facing a UConn team that ranks 15th in defensive shot block percentage. The other area where the Tide has trouble is turnovers. Alabama had the fourth-worst offensive turnover percentage among SEC teams during conference play, giving them another foreboding stat as it prepares to face a team that is only two wins away from accomplishing a monumental feat.
In addition to a smothering defense, the other essential element in Connecticut's game plan is its flawless execution of a slow pace that sucks the life out of its opponent. The Huskies have not played in a game that saw more than 69 possessions since the start of February, which is the opposite of how Alabama likes to play. The Crimson Tide, coincidentally, last played in a game that had under 70 possessions back in mid-January against Missouri, so this will likely be an uncomfortable change of pace. Either way, UConn has shown it can strangle the life out of any elite offensive team, and considering how Alabama matches up, it's hard to see the outcome being much different.
I lean towards UConn's spread, but the number is big enough to where I prefer our odds with a low-scoring game. This has been a common trend, one that is likely to continue as long as the Huskies maintain their championship-caliber defense. According to Action Network, the 'under' has hit in eight of the last nine games involving UConn. Based on Saturday's matchup, I'm betting it will hit one more time. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 160.5
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- NC State +9.5
- NC State vs. Purdue - Over 146
- Alabama vs. UConn - Under 160.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
North Carolina sports betting launched March 11 with a wide variety of great online sportsbooks. Some of our favorite North Carolina sportsbook promos include the Caesars North Carolina promo code and the Fanatics Sportsbook North Carolina promo code.
