This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
For today's college hoops slate, I'm breaking down a pair of tight Big Ten matchups as well as a key clash taking place on the West Coast. Here are my best bets for the day.
Nebraska 
at Ohio State 
Nebraska enters Thursday on a four-game winning streak, undoubtedly a nice stretch, but three of the games came at home with the fourth being against the lowly Hoosiers, so the Cornhuskers still have some things to prove as we head into March. Perhaps the biggest issue Thursday is the fact that they've looked like a completely different team playing outside of Lincoln. Before its win at Indiana a week ago, Nebraska had lost all seven of its conference road games on the year.
Ohio State, meanwhile, has now won three of its last five games, including victories over Purdue and Michigan State. It's hard to forget about the Buckeyes' disastrous January, a month where they won just two total games, but this is still a team that started the season with a 12-2 record while defeating Alabama during the non-conference season.
In stacking these teams against each other, Ohio State has an edge in two critical areas. First, the Buckeyes are much more careful with the ball, posting the fifth-best offensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten since the conference season started, noticeably higher than the Huskers' ranking of ninth in the same category. The second area where Ohio State has a significant edge is rebounding. The Buckeyes have the sixth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the conference during league play, and they're facing a Huskers defense that ranks tenth on the defensive glass, suggesting that Ohio State should see many put-back opportunities on Thursday. The Buckeyes also hold the same edge at the other end of the court, where Nebraska ranks last in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage while Ohio State ranks eighth on defense.
Given the location of the game, and the noted matchup advantages held by the Buckeyes, I'm going with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Ohio State -3.5
Michigan 
at Rutgers 
What happens when a stoppable force meets a moveable object? Well, we're about to find out.
Rutgers is the worst offensive team in the Big Ten, and Michigan is the worst defensive team, seemingly giving us a stalemate on one side of the court. Rutgers has the lowest offensive efficiency rating both during and outside of the conference season, while the same holds for Michigan on the defensive side. That said, the Scarlet Knights do one thing particularly well on offense that should help their cause -- collect offensive boards. Rutgers has the fourth-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten during league play, while Michigan has the fourth-worst defensive rebounding percentage in the same period, giving the home team a good chance of tallying several offensive boards on Thursday.
When Michigan has the ball, it has a gigantic problem on its hands. The Wolverines have hardly played better at the other end of the court, posting the third-worst offensive efficiency rating in the league during conference play while also ranking last in offensive turnover percentage. The latter point is an extremely pertinent note, as Rutgers' defense has the highest defensive turnover percentage in the Big Ten. Michigan's challenge goes beyond keeping possession of the ball, however, as Rutgers is among the best overall defensive teams in the nation, recording the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating among all 362 D1 teams.
These two teams previously met in Ann Arbor on Feb. 3, and Rutgers won comfortably, 69-59. As we might expect based on the matchup notes, the Wolverines had an extremely difficult time on offense as they committed 19 turnovers. Now, they have to go on the road to face the same stingy, aggressive defense. I'm laying the points with Rutgers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Rutgers -6.5
Gonzaga 
at San Francisco 
Most college hoop fans are well aware of the rivalry between Gonzaga and Saint Mary's for the regular season WCC crown, but under the radar, San Francisco has put itself in a position to take second place in the conference standings. With a win on Thursday, the Dons would improve to 12-3 in the conference, moving into a tie with Gonzaga for second place with one game to go, and for the Bulldogs, the final game means a trip to Saint Mary's.
San Francisco has played a relatively easy schedule, although it has a win over Minnesota, and it doesn't have any bad losses. Its only conference losses came against Saint Mary's (twice) and Gonzaga, giving us a consistent and highly proficient team. San Francisco matches up well against Gonzaga because the Dons play a balanced brand of basketball. It's a given that the Bulldogs have an explosive offensive attack, but the Dons are built to withstand it. During the conference season, San Francisco ranks third in the WCC in defensive efficiency, first in defensive turnover percentage, second in defensive rebounding, and third in two-point field goal percentage allowed, all categories that Gonzaga usually dominates.
The Dons are also effective when playing in the other direction, ranking third in the league in offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage, and second in two-point field goal percentage. Overall, on paper, these teams match up evenly on this side of the court.
These two teams previously met in Spokane just over a month ago, and Gonzaga emerged victorious, 77-72. In the game, San Francisco uncharacteristically committed 15 turnovers against a Gonzaga defense that ranks 232nd in defensive turnover percentage, leading to a season-worst minus-eight turnover differential for the Dons. Considering the location of Thursday's game, and San Francisco's overall resume, I'm betting that the Dons will play sharper offensively and keep the game close. I'm taking the points in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Francisco +3.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Ohio State -3.5
- Rutgers -6.5
- San Francisco +3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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