This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Maui Invitational is down to four, and I'm back to break down half of the field as well as some action in the Ball Dawgs Classic. Here are my best bets for the day.
Tennessee vs. 
Purdue
From Honolulu, HI.
On paper, this matchup has all the hallmarks of a heavyweight battle. Purdue currently sits atop KenPom's overall efficiency standings, while Tennessee follows not far behind at No. 7. Although these teams seem relatively even, one of them will have a clear edge on Tuesday.
When Purdue has the ball, we'll see a classic case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, as the Boilermakers have the third-most efficient offense in the country, and they're going up against a Volunteer squad that's ranked first in adjusted defensive efficiency. While this side of the court is seemingly a stalemate, the same cannot be said going in the other direction.
Similar to Tennessee, Purdue is also one of the top defensive teams in the country, coming in at number five in adjusted efficiency, but the Vols' offense is the one exception in this game. Tennessee is ranked 30th in offensive efficiency, which is still great in terms of all D1 basketball, but at the top level against the best teams in the country, this difference will likely come into play Tuesday. Furthermore, the lack of an elite offensive attack is nothing new for Tennessee. In fact, Tennessee has finished outside the top-30 in offensive efficiency in each of the last four seasons. Purdue, on the other hand, finished two seasons ago as the second-most efficient offensive attack before finishing last year at number 12.
When looking at the roster of each team, both squads are loaded with many players who are all extremely experienced and talented. That said, Purdue once again claims an advantage in that it has reigning Wooden Award winner Zach Edey. Moreover, Edey also won the KenPom Player of the Year award last season and is unsurprisingly on track to potentially win both awards once again. Aside from Edey, one other roster note pertains to Tennessee's top scoring option, Dalton Knecht, who missed much of the second half with cramps. Knecht, a graduate transfer from Northern Colorado, won the Big Sky Conference scoring title last year, averaging over 20 points per game. Tennessee had plenty of depth to move past Syracuse, but if Knecht is at all limited again, it could make all the difference against Purdue.
All in all, while this matchup is close when looking at overall numbers, Purdue enters Tuesday in better shape than its opponent. We'll want to monitor the status of Knecht, and that might affect the spread; but ultimately, I'm going with Purdue regardless of whether Knecht suits up. The Boilermakers are more balanced and they have arguably the best player in the country.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under in this game. Both teams are as good as you can get on defense, and both teams have definitively preferred playing at a slower tempo over the past several seasons. Given these two trends, the under seems like a reasonable bet. I like our odds.
College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -3 and Under 133.5
New Mexico vs. 
Toledo
From Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, NV.
Through three games into the season, both New Mexico and Toledo have shown that they're incredibly effective offensive teams, both ranking top-50 in adjusted efficiency. Defense, however, is a different story. New Mexico is weaker on defense, coming in at No. 96 in efficiency, but that's nothing compared to Toldeo, ranking 254th in adjusted defensive efficiency. And this isn't the worst of it. Toldeo is allowing opponents to make over 66 percent of two-point shot attempts, the fifth-highest percentage allowed among all 362 D1 teams. The one thing Toledo's defense does exceptionally well is cause turnovers, but this advantage is mitigated against New Mexico, which has one of the lowest offensive turnover percentages in the nation.
Looking at the bottom line, Toledo's defense is the clear weak link in this matchup. New Mexico is easily the biggest test for the Rockets up to this point in the season, so it's hard to believe the defense will suddenly get better against tougher competition.
It's always possible that the Rockets' explosive scoring potential can carry it past the Lobos, but I'm betting that the better defense will come out on top in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: New Mexico -3
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Purdue -3
- Tennessee vs. Purdue - Under 133.5
- New Mexico -3
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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