DFS College Basketball: Saturday Preview

This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.

I didn't get a ton of birthday karma last Saturday, but did manage to cash in two of the three slates. That was largely due to squeezing Andrew Nembhard into a lineup with teammate Drew Timme, who's a mainstay in this Saturday preview. And Gonzaga is again part of the evening slate!

We have 29 games across three slates to consider for our builds in the year's second-to-last regular season weekend for power conferences. 

Main Slate

Twelve games are included in the main slate at DraftKings, 10 of which overlap with FanDuel's main contest, both tipping off at the customary noon EST. This slate seems to hinge on the Kentucky Wildcats. I'm assuming TyTy Washington ($4,900 DK, $6,200 FD) and Sahvir Wheeler ($7,000 DK, $5,300 FD) both sit again. That a creates a clear five-man rotation in a game with a tight spread and high total. I'll present the lazy value pick below, but it ultimately comes down to Oscar Tshiebwe ($10,000 DK, $8,900 FD). Can you afford him/find enough value to build around him? The upside is still 5-6x despite the huge salary.

Top Targets

Terquavion Smith, G/F, North Carolina State ($7,800 DK, $8,200 FD)

There wasn't a lick of defense played when these teams previously met, when UNC won 100-80. We'd love shares on the Tar Heels, but Armando Bacot ($9,300 DK, $8,300 FD) is expensive and oddly listed as a guard, and their limited rotation gives four options at $7,500 or more, and then nothing higher than $5,700. Despite the guaranteed minutes, I find the Heels core four to be a bit volatile for the price point. As such, I'll pivot to Smith. He's been far more active on the glass lately, grabbing seven or more boards in three straight against a 4.1 average. He erupted for 34 points and 50 DKP in an earlier meeting with UNC, and I like him to take advantage of the tempo.

Kario Oquendo, G/F, Georgia ($7,300 DK, $7,800 FD)

I personally love Florida's Colin Castleton ($9,200 DK, $8,500 FD) as a pivot to Tschiebwe, but I don't know how you can fade Oquendo in any build Saturday. He's had a usage rate north of 40 percent in consecutive games and been less than 29.9 percent just once in the Bulldogs' last seven games. Unless UGA gets blown out and Oquendo doesn't get run down the stretch, he figures to be involved in half or more of the team's expected 70-ish points scored.

Middle Tier

Andrew Jones, G/F, Texas ($6,300)

Jones has given the Longhorns a scoring boost recently, putting up 20 or more in three straight, playing a minimum of 34 minutes in each outing. We are relying a lot on that scoring continuing, as Jones has posted minimal peripherally, tallying 11 total rebounds, three assists and three steals, and we'll get no boost from Texas' 342nd-ranked tempo, so it's possible that Jones' price has risen to an uncomfortable point. Christian Bishop ($6,200) might offer a more stable floor thanks to his double-double potential, but Jones' current groove is hard to fully fade.

Jaeden Zackery, G, Boston College ($5,800)

Zackery has been on a bit of a heater lately, totaling at least 27 DKP in five of the Eagles' last six outings, twice topping 40 DKP. That's some pretty nice upside, and I think the stability is there as well given the expected pick 'em nature of this game. He's not reliant on scoring solely for production either, averaging 4.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 3.2 steals in this stretch. He's a far more confident player than the one who put up 12.75 DKP against a much healthier Clemson side on Jan. 15.

Values

Jacob Toppin, F, Kentucky ($5,500 DK, $4,900 FD)

Toppin is locked in to 35-plus minutes and production by default. With both Washington and Wheeler sidelined the last two games, Toppin has played 39 minutes in each outing, combining to finish with 45.5 DKP. That's right at a 4x return. The price has certainly risen, and there's minimal upside despite the game's high total, but there appears to be nice stability for the investment. 

Tyson Walker, G, Michigan State ($4,100 DK, $5,300 FD)

Walker is the type of GPP gamble that allows for Tshiebwe to anchor your builds. He's moved to a reserve role the last four games, playing a modest 21.8 minutes in this stretch. But it's still provided 14.5 points, 2.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists. That's big-time usage, and in a game with a narrow spread and third-highest total, in a lineup with no clear star, there is far more appeal than concern to Walker.

Afternoon Slate

Nine contests tip between 4-7 p.m. EST, and only two come in with high totals, so we should likely pick out at least some of the chalk. A highly injury-depleted Florida State squad that's offered plenty of value gets defensive/slow paced Virginia, which makes me want to stay away. Texas Tech/TCU's low-scoring expectation makes me want to pass as well, but if we can get word Kevin McCullar ($4,700) will see a full complement of minutes, there's great upside. The chalk for me is Wake Forest's duo of Alondes Williams ($9,300) and Jake LaRavia ($8,500). The Deacons have nothing else, are big favorites and should score 75-plus. 

Top Targets

Paolo Banchero, F, Duke ($8,600)

As much as I love and rely on Drew Timme, Banchero has to be the second-most featured player in my Saturday write-ups. And we're in a buying position Saturday, as his price has fallen more than  $1,000 from it's mid-January peak. Duke blew out Syracuse by 20 in an earlier meeting, where Banchero put up 42.25 DKP. Sure, we're not buying in strictly on a repeat performance. But Banchero's mid-range game is perfect for finding holes in the Orange's 2-3 zone that's largely struggled to a 192nd ranking in defensive efficiency. Mix in some injuries on the front-line creating easy rebounding opportunity, and there's easy double-double potential.

Jayden Gardner, F, Virginia ($7,400)

Gardner is rock solid. He's averaged 17.4 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists in the Cavaliers' last 11 games, playing 35.9 minutes a game. Thanks to Florida State's aforementioned injury issues, the Seminoles will feature undersized and inexperienced options to contain Gardner, who seems as stable as this slate can offer against a defense that's allowed 80-plus points in three of its last four.

Middle Tier

Jermaine Couisnard, G/F, South Carolina ($6,100)

This game has a the highest total on the slate, and while that's coming mainly from Alabama being a double-digit favorite, the lineup also features a deep four-pronged guard attack with all options priced north of 7k. I think the Gamecocks can be surprisingly competitive, and while their production has been equally as challenging to decipher, Couisnard's usage hasn't. He's taken at least 10 shots in five straight and nine of 11. My track record with high volume shooters hasn't been great this season. But Couisnard has dropped 55 points in the last two games and has 22 assists in his last five. Paired with a tempo boost, I like the floor/upside potential.

Dashawn Davis, G, Oregon State ($6,100)

Targeting anyone from a team that's 1-15 in conference against an opponent that ranks ninth defensively and 247th in tempo doesn't seem advisable. But Davis has averaged 18.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.8 steals in his last four starts. He put up 26.0 DKP in his last outing against the Bruins, which is more than enough at this price, and the form suggest there's the potential for more.

Values

Tyger Campbell, G, UCLA ($5,100 DK, $6,100 FD)

I'm buying the dip. Campbell is far from consistent, but he's been priced as high as $7,100 this season, and he's discounted due to injury more than current form. Campbell played 32 minutes in his second game back from a shoulder injury, suggesting he'll continue to see a slew of minutes here. The Bruins are 15-point favorites against lowly Oregon State, which is 295th in defensive efficiency. The modest 25.0 DKP Campbell put up in a prior meeting with the Beavers is more than enough to make this a nice value.

Jonas Aidoo, F, Tennessee ($3,300 DK, $4,000 FD)

You don't need to force Aidoo into lineups, but at this price, he doesn't need to do much to return 4x and open up your spending elsewhere. With Olivier Nkamhoua ($3,800 DK, $3,000 FD) out and John Fulkerson ($4,700 DK, $4,500 FD) uncertain with a hip injury, the Volunteers will need Aidoo's size to combat Walker Kessler ($8,800 DK, $8,600 FD), who I also love on this slate. Aidoo has played 57 minutes in Tennessee's last three games, resulting in a 16.0 DKP average, which clearly works here, and there could be room for more.

Evening Slate

Saturday's contests close with an eight-game evening slate, starting at 8 p.m. EST. As mentioned, this slate, per usual, includes Gonzaga and personal favorite Drew Timme ($8,400). I'm going to differentiate just for argument's sake, though the Zags beat St. Mary's by a relatively low-scoring 74-58 previously, far from making their rotation must used. That said, Timme flirted with a triple double last time out and has gone for 40-plus DKP in three of four. Fade at your own risk.

One player I am fading is Creighton's Ryan Hawkins ($8,500). The game logs look great, but we have to consider they've come against the bottom tier of the Big East. Creighton has struggled to score against the upper tier, of which Providence is. I love the volume, just not the matchup and prefer to spend differently elsewhere.

Top Targets

Christian Braun, G, Kansas ($8,600)

With Kansas limiting David McCormack's minutes, they need rebounding support from their guards, and Braun is more fit to provide that boost than Ochai Agbaji ($8,700). He put up a double-double in this matchup earlier this season, and if we trust the game to stay tight, Braun can be a three- or four-category contributor in a high-scoring affair, putting a 4x return well within range. 

Isaiah Mobley, F, Southern Cal ($8,200)

A common theme throughout these three slates is buying a dip. Mobley clearly fits that bill, having previously been priced as high as $9,600 but is down due to a slow return from injury. He's failed to return 3.5x just once in his last seven games and posted 37.75 DKP against Oregon previously. High floor, low ceiling, so Mobley presents better for cash lineups than GPP.

Middle Tier

Xavier Pinson, G, LSU ($6,500)

Pinson has at least eight assists in three consecutive games, that alone making him interesting. He's also taken at least 10 shots in four straight, including a whopping 20 his last time out. Pair that with the potential extra motivation of playing his former squad, and there's a fun revenge narrative with which to flirt.

Adam Flagler, G/F, Baylor ($6,100)

Flagler is coming off of a 46.0 explosion against Oklahoma State, yet his price fell $200.  Flagler is largely just a scorer, but if we trust Baylor to get their 75-point implied total, Flagler doesn't need much peripherally to return 4-5x, as 16-2-2-1 is good enough. And having hit 15-of-26 from 3-point range in his last three, there's upside potential.

Values

Tommy Kuhse, G, St. Mary's ($5,500)

As much as I love building around the Zags' offense, I don't buy their sixth-ranked defense, and enjoy values matched up with their sixth-ranked tempo. Kuhse has rejoined the Gaels' starting five  the last three games, averaging 19.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 3.3 steals in 39.3 minutes. That's impossible to find at this price range, and he doesn't need to fully play to that level to return 4x.

A.J. Reeves, G/F, Providence ($5,100)

Reeves is trending back toward his midseason form, starting six straight and playing 60 total minutes in his last two after needing some time to come back around due to a finger injury. He's averaging 10.4 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.0 assists in his last three; not enormous production but good enough for the reduced tag. He's a foul trouble risk, which keeps expectations in check, but he's also priced $1,800 less than his season high, so the value is clear.