This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
It's finally all-in on college hoops this week with three slates that include a total of 33 games. It's not officially huge GPP season as there's only a $2,000 prize on Saturday's main contest. But DraftKings has already announced the upcoming Tuesday slate, which includes a $10,000 top payout.
Main Slate
12 games get us going at 12 p.m. EST and stretching until 2:00. We've got two matchups with miniscule totals under 130, though four are over 150 headlined by Florida-Kentucky at 169.5. It's going to create some obvious stacks and other spots with very low-used players.
Don't completely ignore the low total games. I'm going to fade RaeQuan Battle against Houston, but his adversary in Jamal Shead is favorably valued. I'll also avoid the Wolfpack against Virginia as Isaac McKneely for the Cavaliers is getting too high of a salary, but there could be some value in Jacob Groves.
Top Players
Armando Bacot, F, North Carolina ($8,300)
This is a matchup we want a part of with a pick 'em spread and a total of 159. And this is the lowest salary Bacot has seen all season, falling $200 from the Heels' last outing despite a 39.0 DKP showing. He's facing the Tigers for the fifth time and has exceeded 30 DKP on four occasions. Bacot's not demanding the ball offensively this year to limit his ceiling, yet there's no reason to think he won't produce to a double-double barring foul trouble. Clemson's PJ Hall is in a bit of a funk and could be a contrarian option, but otherwise the Tigers' lineup doesn't appear to present much obvious intrigue. For UNC, Harrison Ingram is off a 34.75 DKP effort despite going 2-for-14 from the floor. And if you need a value dart throw, Seth Trimble is surging and could be needed for 20-plus minutes as I expect Elliot Cadeau to struggle defensively against the Clemson backcourt.
Josh Oduro, F, Providence ($8,100)
I'm confused about Oduro. On one hand, Providence is without Bryce Hopkins and have no choice but to play through Oduro. And at this salary while taking 35 shots in his last two games, it should be a smash spot that comes with high roster usage. On the other hand, Providence is a 10-point underdog and only carry an anticipated total of 64.25 while Oduro will likely has his hands full underneath against Ryan Kalkbrenner. There are likely far safer and far higher ceiling options, but Oduro is not without merit. Perhaps I'm a game too early as the Friars adjust to life without Hopkins, and that could be food for thought more than a recommendation.
Middle Tier
Zyon Pullin, G, Florida ($6,900)
This matchup isn't a matter of if, it's who we're using given the massive total and zero-point spread. Florida is a tad risky given they distribute their scoring, but the 85 points they're expected to post should leave plenty for all. I think Tyrese Samuel is in a great spot and fairly valued while fitting my frontcourt preferred lineup construction, though I'll target Pullin here to be different. He's scored in double-digits in every game this season to create a stable floor and has averaged 4.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists across his last four. Pullin's salary has fallen below $7,000 to create further appeal and allows for a well-rounded roster build.
Derek Simpson, G, Rutgers ($6,000)
Simpson has started the last two and has averaged 35.0 minutes, posting 18.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals while topping a 5x return that includes 39.5 DKP against Ohio State. Iowa represents a nightly target for opposing offenses ranking ninth in tempo per KenPom and 126th in defensive efficiency. This seems too obvious, but the salary doesn't make it too risky.
Bargain Options
Keyon Menifield, G, Arkansas ($4,600)
This should be the chalkiest of chalky value plays. Menifield's minutes and offense have gone up in each of this three games and he's coming off a massive 44.5 DKP performance. Don't expect that again as he got to the foul line 17 times but only averaged 2.0 FTA last year at Washington. But this is a matchup we know we want shares of due to the 157.5 total, reasonably close spread, and Menifield comes with next-to-no risk. He averaged 10.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.1 steals last season. And if we can even get that, it's a huge return. It seems like a free square where you lose minimal by not playing Menifield while gaining minimal with anticipated high roster percentages.
Collin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina ($4,000)
This is another game we don't really want to cover with the low total of 135.5, yet it's a narrow spread where the best players should log significant court time. As such, Murray-Boyles arguably carries has the highest upside of any Gamecock. He's been eased in to action after missing early time due to illness, but he's returned at least 3x this salary in three of four and four of six, including his only action against a Power 5 school. Murray-Boyles is coming off a career-high 17 points and is only going to improve. There's substantial risk here, though it'll also come with virtually zero percent roster totals to create opportunity elsewhere if he goes off.
Afternoon Slate
12 games are included on DraftKings' second slate, which tips at 2:15 p.m. EST and the last one at 6:00. It lists a $500 first-place prize in the biggest tournament, which again isn't exactly big at only 235 entries. It may not be the big ticket you want, but it does offer a reasonable shot with the small entry. There are also some contests here with low entry frees that can help build bankroll for upcoming days.
Four games top 150 points in expected total, headlined by Alabama-Vanderbilt and Wake Forest-Miami - the latter of which I'm finding difficult to find ideal fits as former bargains have played their way out of appeal. Only two come with totals lower than 140, lowlighted by Duke-Notre Dame. As this section came together, I struggled to find the right plays in the higher-scoring matchups as many came with double-digit spreads. For me, that says safe scoring with minimal explosive ceilings.
Top Players
Quinten Post, F, Boston College ($9,300)
I love Iowa State's Tamin Lipsey if you prefer high-end guards, but that's never been my roster construction. Pair that with a matchup of the fourth and 15th ranked defenses, and I'll pass on him at the salary and pivot to Post. Georgia Tech has no size to speak of to create a plus matchup for the 7-foot, 235-pound Eagles center. He's produced two double-doubles in his last four and five on the year while averaging 2.2 blocks and scoring in double-digits every time out going for 20-plus six times. Post offers ample stability with upside, even if it's not a full 4x return.
Arthur Kaluma, F, Kansas State ($8,300)
Kaluma never leaves the court as he's logged 35.1 minutes per outings, which at worst sets up a stable floor. That's further illustrated by the fact he's scored in double-digits and grabbed at least seven boards in all but two games. UCF ranks 21st in defensive efficiency and 46th in tempo, so I'm expecting a boost. They also lack any marquee non-conference win. We'll get low roster numbers on Kaluma thanks to the low total. And while he probably won't reach 5x potential, I like him as a solid anchor to pair with higher-upside players below.
Middle Tier
Sean Pedulla, G, Virginia Tech ($5,800)
High-risk, high-reward here. Pedula's usage throughout the year is to the moon as he's only been below 24.7 percent once with six times over 30. The issue is playing time as he's missed two of the Hokies' last four covering 35 total minutes in the two he's appeared. It's a reach, but the hope is Pedulla's been eased back heading into conference play and will be unleashed here. He averaged 16.7 points, 5.0 boards and 5.8 assists through his first six appearances, showing growth on the 15.0/3.6/3.8 from last year. Pedulla just needs to get back to form. Hopefully, we're ahead of the curve.
Bryce Thompson, G, Oklahoma State ($5,500)
Thompson has played 33 or more minutes in three straight while posting at least 34.0 DKP from two of those while scoring in double-digits in four straight. He's long been a offense-only option and the season averages of 2.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists don't inspire confidence. But Thompson has also been valued as high as $7,200 this season, a clear indicator he should be a go-to for the Cowboys. He's one of two Pokes averaging in double-digits over the last five and will be at the forefront of the home side's upset bid. I don't think we can play Thompson and Pedulla together since they carry bust potential. But if you're up for taking risks, it opens a lot of spending elsewhere. And Oklahoma State still list a solid 72.5 point expected total.
If Wooga Poplar ($6,700) is deemed a full-go, his salary has fallen nicely thanks to a two-game absence and makes for a solid play.
Bargain Options
Cameron Corhen, F, Florida State ($4,700)
Corhen has logged an average of 18 minutes across two games since returning from injury while averaging 14.38 DKP, a fair 3x return at this number. But he was elite for the 'Noles early in the year at this salary as he posted 13.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.3 steals per outing to result in the spike. Corhen's been working his way back to form, and at this discount it's a fair shot to take in a pick 'em game where both should score in the mid-70s.
Tasos Kamateros, F, Vanderbilt ($3,700)
There are some interesting second-tier options in this matchup. Alabama is favored by 14.5 points and expected to produce almost 87 points, which should open up their bench for more stable production. That puts Sam Walters, Nick Pringle and Latrell Wrightsell on my radar. But I'll back Kamateros at this lower number. He's started two straight while averaging 9.0 points and 5.0 rebounds across 30.0 minutes. That last number is key. If Kamateros can keep up with the pace, stay out of foul trouble, and repeat that usage, he can't help but exceed a return at this salary.
Evening Slate
Nine games wrap up our busy day with tipoffs spanning from 8:00 to 10:00 p.m. EST. The tournaments are virtually identical to the afternoon slate, but the later matchups allow you to see how your day has gone before deciding to take another shot while still also hopefully riding some winnings.
While this is at the bottom of the column, it's actually the first section I wrote Friday evening as all the spreads and totals were available early. That doesn't mean I'll find success, but it won't be for rushing to make a deadline. UCLA/Cal is the outlier at a 136.5-point total, with everything else coming in at at least 140 - led as usual by Arizona-Utah at 166.
Top Players
Wade Taylor, G, Texas A&M ($7,500)
I love Colorado's KJ Simpson here as a bounceback after his last outing, but you don't need me to tell you to use the slate's highest-salaried player. Taylor offers more volatility, yet arguably more upside at the lower number. I'm not too worried about his recent game logs as the minutes were limited in blowouts. Taylor still comes with a 31.5 percent usage across his last five. And while I may not believe it based on KenPom's pace and defensive metrics for both teams, A&M lists the third-highest expected team total. We need 30 DKP to return here - which is very doable - and Taylor averages 2.1 steals, which should play up against an LSU team that ranks 270th in turnover percentage.
Jamison Battle, F, Ohio State ($7,000)
I initially sought to target the Buckeyes' backcourt. And while I still really like Bruce Thornton, the matchup suggests we can get a little value and upside from Battle and potentially pay for a premium guard elsewhere. Indiana is long, but I like Battle to bring those forwards out of the lane and open space. Perhaps that bodes better for Thornton, and Indiana does frequently turn over the ball to creating running chances. But the appeal to Battle is his 3-point prowess against this defense that ranks 263rd in defending the arch. He's also attempting 6.7 long balls a night while connecting at a 44.7 percent clip. Dribble penetration will force the defense to collapse to allow Battle open looks. And as the team's second-tallest starter, he should factor on the boards where he's been inconsistent.
Middle Tier
Pelle Larsson, G, Arizona ($6,600)
We know we want a share of the Wildcats and their top players' salaries are falling, so everyone is on the table. Larsson represents the most steady for me as he impacts on all levels despite a low 16.0 usage rate in conference. He's averaging 9.3 shots, 12.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.3 steals across 30.0 minutes, leading to a 28.2 DKP average with a 21.75 floor. That works well at this number.
Dylan Disu, F, Texas ($5,900)
Lets just buy the salary dip here and move on. Disu feasted on LSU in his return while the efforts have been inconsistent since against weaker competition. Texas's rotation is also hard to project with many capable options. That's absorbed into Disu's value as he's been as high as $7,400. Texas Tech is undersized outside of Warren Washington, and Disu is capable in the midrange and on the interior, where he should pose a matchup problem. And we only need 20 DKP for a fair return a this number, which is 10 points and some peripherals - something Disu is very capable of with a 25.2 percent usage rate.
Bargain Options
Atiki Ally Atiki, F, BYU ($4,900)
BYU scores in bunches, suggesting we need a piece to their puzzle. But it's just that - a puzzle. No one averages over 25.1 minutes and there are 11 options logging double-digits leading in a 37.7 percent bench participation. So let's go to the low end and hope for the best. Ally Atiki has averaged 17.5 minutes from his last four while posting 8.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.0 blocks. He's been better in his last two by averaging 25.25 DKP, and could flirt with 20-plus minutes if the Cougars stretch this out as the spread suggests.
Trae Hannibal, G, LSU ($4,500)
It's difficult to trust bench players as their roles can frequently change. But Hannibal looks to be on the upswing as he's topped 20 minutes in each of his last four. Despite a 15.5 percent usage rate, he's active by averaging 3.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.8 steals to go with 6.5 points. This is a step up in class for the Tigers and the Aggies rank 78th defensively and 331st in tempo, so it'll be a grind. It's more form than matchup, but Hannibal is a low-risk, potentially-moderate reward of a 4x return.
