DFS College Basketball: Tuesday Preview

Top Players:

Zion Williamson ($9,200 FD, $11,100 DK) / RJ Barrett ($8,900 FD, $10,100 DK): Boston College runs at a middle-of-the pack pace (No. 156) with a below-average defense (No. 178), making this a good matchup on paper for Duke, who yet again tops the implied total list. Williamson is averaging 47.5 FD points over his last five and Barrett 39.9 over his last six, but remember Barrett had to take on more ball handling with Tre Jones out and that is no longer the case. You can't use both and still expect to have any kind of balance, so Zion -- RotoWire's highest projected player today -- is my pick if you're looking to get a piece of Duke (generally a good idea). He's matchup proof and blowout proof, with the latter a very realistic possibility Tuesday.

So you're playing a big GPP and your idea is to fade Duke? Or, you're just looking to create a lineup that doesn't require any "punt plays"? Well, you're in luck. On a 10-12 game slate, there are plenty of star-caliber players with ceilings nearly as high as the Dukies above.

Dedric Lawson ($8,800 FD, $10,000 DK): Lawson has been sensational from a statistical perspective, as the Jayhawks needed him to fill a big void left by Udoka Azubuike in the paint. While that statement isn't any less true Tuesday, DFS players need to keep in mind KU is taking on a Kansas State team fighting for their Big 12 lives (who also happens to be No. 5 in defense and No. 339 in pace). Plus, much of those numbers were accumulated without Dean Wade, who missed six games with a foot injury but is now back to his usual self. I still expect at or near a double-double for Lawson, but a true ceiling game might be asking too much.

Shamorie Ponds ($8,500 FD, $9,900 DK): Ponds turned in a dreadful performance Saturday with Duke's Tre Jones hounding him all game long. If there's a positive takeaway from that, it's that his price is below $10,000 for the first time since Jan. 1. On that day exactly, Ponds got the best of the Golden Eagles, putting up 26 points, seven rebounds and five assists for a total of 45.75 DK points (five TOs reduced the FD score). Ponds will hit the road tonight, and is averaging nearly 10 more DK points in away games on the season. I like him as a buy-low, and don't believe we'll see crazy high ownership in GPPs.

Grant Williams ($9,000 FD, $9,800 DK): Last time I thought Williams wasn't such a great play, I hope you didn't listen, as he went nuts for 64.5 DK points. I'm leaning the same way tonight against a Missouri team with a tempo outside the top-300 (though their defense sits at No. 64). There's not much of a reliable sample size from his last game against the Tigers, as foul trouble limited him to single-digit fantasy points. With those two factors working against him I'm out, but fade at your own risk.

Ky Bowman ($8,600 FD, $9,600 DK): Bowman has played all 40 minutes in six consecutive games, and that shouldn't change tonight with Wynston Tabbs continuing to nurse a knee injury. I'm still out on him tonight, though. We saw what Tre Jones did to Shamorie Ponds on the defensive end this weekend, and I expect that to continue against Bowman on Tuesday. Even when the 6-1 guard doesn't score like crazy, his fantasy floor is built on above-average rebounding. Duke is the third-best team in the nation on the offensive glass, per KenPom, so it will be tough sledding in this matchup.

Markus Howard ($8,600 FD, $9,500): One way to approach a GPP tonight is to just lock in Ponds and Howard and hope they trade baskets all game, which is a very realistic possibility. Howard didn't fare so well in their first matchup, however, producing just 13.75 DK points. That's less than half of his second-lowest total of conference play. I expect improvement, but how much is hard to say. St. John's runs the 37th-fastest tempo with a defense all the way down at No. 82, so the stage is set. I expect a floor around 30 fantasy points.

Game to Target:

North Carolina (-10.5) vs. NC State, o/u 163.5, 8:00 p.m. EST

Yes, I hear you. NC State scored a pitiful 24 points in the entire game Saturday against Virginia Tech. The shooting was simply woeful (16.7 percent woeful), but Tech also made a conscious effort to slow down tempo and have less possessions without their star player Justin Robinson available. North Carolina -- who plays at the sixth-fastest tempo -- will not do that. When the teams met earlier this season, a combined 172 points were scored. Five Wolfpack players finished in double figures, but it was Braxton Beverly ($5,500 FD) who got hot from outside and poured in 21 off the bench. Torin Dorn ($6,900 FD) had a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds, while Markell Johnson ($6,000 FD) had 11 points and five turnovers, but his four steals helped save the day. While Beverly's game seemed a bit fluky in nature, Dorn and Johnson each got up 12 shots. C.J. Bryce ($6,600 FD) is also worth a look, but I'm more likely to lean towards the others. Since their first matchup, Bryce has logged less than 20 FD points per game.

Luke Maye ($8,100 FD, $8,200 DK) was the stud for the Tar Heels in this matchup with 21 points and 11 rebounds, though his FD score was hurt a bit by seven turnovers. Cameron Johnson ($7,900 FD, $7,500 DK) needed just 23 minutes to rack up 15 points and 11 rebounds himself before leaving due to injury. Give me a full game from him and his ceiling might be as high as any of the studs mentioned above.Coby White ($7,600, $7,400 DK) is one of college basketball's emerging stars, so he's in play as well after averaging 27.1 FD/36.0 DK points over his last five, though I still like Cam Johnson a little better. Even Kenny Williams ($5,800 FD, $5,600 DK) had a double-double against NC State earlier this year. Finally, Nassir Little ($6,500 FD, $5,300 DK) still seems a little underpriced on DraftKings to me. Sure he comes off the bench, but is averaging 24.4 DK points over his last five, including a 23-point outing against Virginia Tech. He didn't shoot well in the first matchup but is heading in the right direction.

Game to Fade:

Kansas State (-3) vs. Kansas, o/u 135, 9:00 p.m. EST

Rutgers vs. Michigan is another game I won't have any part of, but I decided to profile the less obvious one here. In this Big 12 showdowns, both teams own top-15 defenses, and the KSU pace is nearly at the level of Virginia or Wisconsin -- currently No. 339 in the nation. I discussed Lawson above for Kansas and why he's low on my star rankings for tonight. Legerald Vick ($6,100 FD, $6,600 DK) is simply too risky for me on a night-by-night basis. Ochai Agbaji ($4,000 FD, $5,100 DK) will be heavily owned after getting 6.5x and 9x on DK in his last two games, and he should continue to benefit with Marcus Garrett (ankle) out again. I'll have exposure on FanDuel with that crazy low price, but not as much as the masses on DraftKings given the incredibly difficult matchup. Do we really expect him to double-double again against the nation's third-best defensive rebounding team, per KenPom?

KSU might have some appeal on paper considering they get a tempo boost in a game that's projected to be a relatively close matchup. Dean Wade ($6,900 FD, $7,200 DK) is coming off his best game of the year, but the spot here doesn't scream ceiling. Barry Brown ($7,300 FD, $7,100 DK) and his team-high 27.2 percent usage rate seems to be the best bet if you buy this logic, but you'll pay for it.The other mid-tier options are a little too inconsistent for my liking, especially on a slate that includes 10-12 games.

Value Plays:

In addition to Agbaji and Little (mostly GPPs) there are a handful of other players likely to provide 4 or 5x on the Tuesday slate, which might help you get another one of the studs in your lineup.

Ashton Hagans, Kentucky ($7,100 FD, $5,900 DK): It's really only DraftKings where this can be called a "value," but we're talking about a starter with a 20-plus percent usage rate that is second on the team in minutes, and hasn't had under 20 DK points since December.

Anfernee McLemore, Auburn ($5,600 FD, $4,800 DK): This one's a bit contingent on Austin Wiley (lower leg) sitting out again, and I'll admit Florida is a tough draw. It's mostly for GPPs, but there's a ceiling in the 30s on the right night.

Phil Cofer, Florida State ($5,500 FD, $4,300 DK): There's some risk here, but it was good seeing Cofer back in the starting five against Georgia Tech on Saturday. He played just 20 minutes, but another few days to rest the foot could raise the ceiling.

M.J. Walker, Florida State ($5,400 FD, $4,500 DK): He was held scoreless against Syracuse last season, but he's starter with boom-or-bust potential at a very low price. He was quiet against Georgia Tech on Saturday, but put up 36.5 DK points the previous game. Over the last 10, Walker has the highest usage rate of any FSU starter.

Aaron Henry, Michigan State ($4,600 FD, $4,300 DK): He's been starting in place of Joshua Langford, seeing 30-plus minutes in his last two games. The 6-6 freshman draws Illinois on Thursday with a big tempo boost.