This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Top Players:
Shamorie Ponds, St. John's ($8,800 FD, $10,000 DK): Ponds hasn't scored less than 20 actual points in a game since 2018, and I'd be shocked if that streak ended Wednesday in a Big East contest with the highest over/under on the slate. Creighton has been a joy to target in DFS this year, as they play at a top-100 tempo and their defense is in the bottom half of all D1 by both standard and KenPom metrics. Creighton is a home favorite of (-4.5), which bodes well if Ponds is trying to keep pace in a tight game. Ponds is the night's chalk star play, and his price isn't too tough to stomach, especially on FanDuel. He had 37.0 DK points in their first matchup, and that seems closer to a floor than a ceiling to me.
Ky Bowman, Boston College ($8,600 FD, $9,900 DK): Bowman scores in bunches, but much of the 6-1 guard's fantasy value comes from his ability to crash the glass, which gives him a ceiling in the 60-70s. On paper, however, Syracuse poses a tough matchup with KenPom's No. 17 defense and No. 253 tempo rating. Looking to last year for perspective, Bowman posted lines of 23/4/5 and 20/4/4 against the Syracuse zone last year. Those are perfectly respectable, but not quite his ceiling marks.
Alpha Diallo, Providence ($8,500 FD, $9,400 DK): Diallo was up-and-down against the Pirates in 2017-18, registering 25 & 10 in their road matchup last year, but posting just
Top Players:
Shamorie Ponds, St. John's ($8,800 FD, $10,000 DK): Ponds hasn't scored less than 20 actual points in a game since 2018, and I'd be shocked if that streak ended Wednesday in a Big East contest with the highest over/under on the slate. Creighton has been a joy to target in DFS this year, as they play at a top-100 tempo and their defense is in the bottom half of all D1 by both standard and KenPom metrics. Creighton is a home favorite of (-4.5), which bodes well if Ponds is trying to keep pace in a tight game. Ponds is the night's chalk star play, and his price isn't too tough to stomach, especially on FanDuel. He had 37.0 DK points in their first matchup, and that seems closer to a floor than a ceiling to me.
Ky Bowman, Boston College ($8,600 FD, $9,900 DK): Bowman scores in bunches, but much of the 6-1 guard's fantasy value comes from his ability to crash the glass, which gives him a ceiling in the 60-70s. On paper, however, Syracuse poses a tough matchup with KenPom's No. 17 defense and No. 253 tempo rating. Looking to last year for perspective, Bowman posted lines of 23/4/5 and 20/4/4 against the Syracuse zone last year. Those are perfectly respectable, but not quite his ceiling marks.
Alpha Diallo, Providence ($8,500 FD, $9,400 DK): Diallo was up-and-down against the Pirates in 2017-18, registering 25 & 10 in their road matchup last year, but posting just a 10/8/2 line at home. This year is a much different team without Carrington & Delgado, and those losses have made Seton Hall much more fantasy friendly. Their tempo checks in at No. 78, while defensive efficiency sits at No. 77 (per KenPom). Diallo is averaging 33.8 DK points/game during Big East play, and is a fine play tonight. I'm lukewarm, and more likely to either pay up for the Ponds ceiling, or move down a tier in search of more balance.
Jordan Murphy ($8,700) is on FanDuel only, and I'm not sure I trust him after he put up just 13.6 FD points against Illinois earlier this year. Juwan Morgan ($9,000) is exclusive to DraftKings tonight, and has a good-but-not-great matchup against Rutgers. Their front line is getting healthier but just allowed a similar player in Lamar Stevens to post a 21 & 8 line that included two steals and two blocks.
Game to Target:
Creighton (-4.5) vs. St. John's, o/u 164, 8:30 p.m. EST
I touched on Ponds above, but Justin Simon ($6,900 FD, $7,000 DK) is a fantastic play as well against a Creighton team that struggles to defend the perimeter. LJ Figueroa ($8,200 FD, $7,700 DK) and Mustapha Heron ($7,000 FD, $6,600 DK) are also in play if you're choosing between them and anyone else in their tier, but I generally lean towards the backcourt. Both guards attempted 17 field goals in their first matchup, though it is worth noting that Figueroa led the way in fantasy scoring with 37.75 DK points.
Lost in all this is the fact that Creighton checks in with the highest implied total on the DraftKings main slate by a margin of a full four points. I'm locking in Davion Mintz ($6,100 FD, $5,700 DK), who had 28.0 DK points in their first matchup and has been over 30 in his two games since. Ty-Shon Alexander ($7,800 FD, $7,100 DK) is another fine way to get a piece, but he went just 2-for-10 from the perimeter in their first showdown. I'm more likely to look towards Martin Krampelj ($7,100 FD, $6,300 DK), who is getting a little closer to being appropriately priced on DraftKings, but still leaves room for value. He hasn't had less than 26.0 DK points since the start of Big East play, and had 32.25 in their first game, which would be good for 5x at his current price.
Game to Fade:
Wake Forest vs. Louisville (-10), o/u 137, 8:00 p.m. EST
Louisville's Jordan Nwora ($8,000 FD, $8,800 DK) is in the midst of a breakout campaign, and although Wake Forest sports just a 8-11 record, they've been good at keeping opponents off the glass and limiting the fantasy production of opposing big men. They haven't faced the class of the ACC just yet, but players like Kerry Blackshear, Ebuka Izundu and Jack Salt were held in check, generally speaking. One Louisville option I might be able to deal with is Christen Cunningham ($6,200 FD, $5,700 DK), who has been awfully close to 5x on DraftKings in three of his last four. I'm off Wake Forest entirely against a Louisville team that ranks No. 31 in defensive efficiency and No. 241 in tempo, per KenPom.
Value Plays:
Isaiah Jackson, Providence ($6,100 FD, $5,400 DK): Jackson moved into the starting lineup against DePaul, and I'll look at him again if he stays there. He's averaged 21.8 DK points on the road in Big East play, with most of that coming as a reserve.
Myles Cale, Seton Hall ($5,800 FD, $5,100 DK): With 20 DK points in four of his last five, Cale is a serviceable space filler in cash games.
Frank Howard, Syracuse ($6,000 FD, $5,000 DK): The game has a low over/under, but Syracuse gets a big matchup and pace boost. With the ball in his hands, I like the senior to hit at least 4x on DraftKings.
Javon Pickett, Missoui ($4,800 FD, $4,500 DK): This one's contingent on Mark Smith (ankle) being out or limited. Ignore that negative score on his game log, as he left early with a back injury and has since bounced back.
Jermaine Samuels, Villanova ($4,800 FD, $4,300 DK): He's a little boom-or-bust for my liking, but has averaged 18.2 DK points/game since entering the starting lineup
