NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest Region

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The Midwest figures to be one of the stronger regions in March Madness this year, boasting the overall favorite, Houston, who is currently +475 to win the whole thing on DraftKings. After their deep run last year, coach Kelvin Sampson will look to bring the Cougars their first-ever National Championship. However, there are other contenders, including one conference winner, three conference runner-ups, and another Elite Eight team from 2022. There is also a good blend of high-powered offenses and elite defense. Newcomers Kennesaw State will make its first NCAA Tournament appearance in school history, capping off an interesting group.

While the higher seeds are all formidable in their own right, everyone knows there will be at least a few unforeseen upsets. Certainly, teams like Penn State and Drake will look to play spoiler and shake up the bracket. 

Let's get to my predictions for the tournament, including the top player to watch out for and the biggest bust to avoid.

The Favorites

No. 1 Houston- The Cougars are tournament favorites for good reason. They are elite at both ends and have tournament experience. While they fell to Memphis in the AAC Tournament final, they were without leading scorer Marcus Sasser (17.1 ppg). due to a groin injury suffered in the semifinal game. However, the senior guard is expected to be good to go for Houston's opening bout, and the Cougars should have no problem taking care of business against 16-seed Northern Kentucky even if he has to sit.

No. 2 Texas- After losing in the second round last year, the Longhorns have the potential to make a deep run. They boast a top-18 offense and defense, per KenPom, leaving few weaknesses. Texas also has been battle-tested this whole season, capturing 14 Quad 1 wins, the second-most in all of college basketball.

No. 3 Xavier- Xavier finished the season by losing to Marquette in the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers will go as far as their offense can take them, as they were the third-best three-point shooting team in the country. Although their best rebounder, Zach Freemantle, is out for the season, the team went 8-4 without him, with Jack Nunge (14.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg) stepping up admirably.

No. 4 Indiana- The Hoosiers barely made March Madness last year, getting in through a First Four win over Wyoming. In coach Mike Woodson's second season, Indiana is led by junior Trayce Jackson-Davis (20.8 ppg, 10.9 rpg) and freshman point guard and NBA prospect Jalen Hood-Schifino (13.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 3.7 apg). Indiana has more star power than most this time around, which could propel the team despite a 4-4 record in its last eight games heading into the tournament.

Cinderella Watch

No. 10 Penn State- The Nittany Lions turned heads after losing by just two points to Purdue in the Big Ten Conference tournament. Jalen Pickett leads the team in points (17.9 ppg) and assists (6.7 apg), helping create one of the nation's better offenses (No. 17 in KenPom's efficiency metric). Despite playing at a slow pace, coach Micah Shrewsberry's squad made the third-most three-pointers per game of any team in the country.

No. 12 Drake- Drake is probably one of the more under-the-radar teams in the entire tournament, making just its sixth appearance in school history. The Bulldogs are coming into the competition hot, winning the Missouri Valley Conference tournament and 13 of their last 14 games, albeit against lackluster opponents. Tucker DeVries figures to be their most important player, averaging 19.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.1 steals this season.

Biggest Bust 

No. 5 Miami- While most five seeds wouldn't have very high expectations, many will look for the Hurricanes to replicate their Cinderella Elite Eight run from 2022. However, their lackluster defense and poor rebounding will make that a difficult task. Considering leading rebounder Norchad Omier is dealing with an ankle injury, they could be easily exploited on the glass.

First-Round Upset

No. 12 Drake vs No. 5 Miami- This just makes too much sense, as a Cinderella team going up against a potential bust screams upset. Drake has the nation's third-highest defensive rebounding rate per Ken Pom, giving it great potential to dominate the boards. Factoring in Miami's porous defense and the Bulldogs shooting 36.7 percent from three on the season, the offense shouldn't be a major concern. This will only be compounded if Norchad Omier is unable to suit up.

Player To Watch

Trayce Jackson-Davis, C, Indiana- Jackson-Davis is one of the three players averaging a double-double in the tournament. The 6-foot-9 big man boasts totals of 20.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2.7 blocks per game. If Indiana has any chance of going far this year, it'll be on the back of Jackson-Davis. The only question mark will be if the Hoosiers can provide enough spacing for him to operate.

Sweet 16 Picks

No. 1 Houston- The majority of brackets should and likely will have Houston making at least to the Sweet 16. The Cougars rank fourth in defensive efficiency and 11th in offensive efficiency by KenPom. As long as Marcus Sasser stays healthy, it would truly be madness for them to bow out any earlier. 

No. 2 Texas- The Longhorns could have a tough second-round matchup against either Penn State or Texas A&M. Despite this, their elite play on both sides of the ball should allow them to get at least this far. Marcus Carr is the engine of their offense, leading the team in points (15.9) and assists (4.1) per game. Texas is one of the most proven and experienced teams in the whole tournament, so working under an interim head coach shouldn't be an issue.

No. 6 Iowa State- The Cyclones were runner-ups in the Big 12 Conference tournament, losing to reigning National Champions Kansas. Their slow pace may make them a hard watch at times, but it allows them to have an elite defense. Their 10 Quad 1 wins also make them one of the more proven teams in the country as they look to make the Sweet 16 for the second straight year.

No. 12 Drake- It's always tough predicting Cinderella teams, but they are inevitable. Drake is in a great position to pull off a classic 12-5 upset and then push past a thin Indiana squad. Roman Penn could be the team's X-Factor, as his averages of 12.6 points and 5.4 assists could alleviate pressure from Tucker DeVries. 

Final Four Pick

No. 1 Houston- No surprises here, as Houston is the best team in the country, losing just three games all season. The Cougars' slow pace allows them to control games on both ends. They held their opponents to a 27.8 three-point percentage (second-best mark nationwide) while also smothering opponents at the rim. They aren't entirely reliant on Marcus Sasser, as four players average double-digit scoring, with Tramon Mark sitting at 9.7. Jarace Walker and J'Wan Roberts form a formidable frontcourt, combining for 21.3 points, 14.1 rebounds, 2.3 blocks and 1.8 steals per game. The Cougars' only real weakness is their lack of elite competition in AAC play, but they still totaled seven Quad 1 wins. I still think Houston will make it at least one round further than their Elite Eight exit in 2022, as Sasser should be healthy by the time the competition heats up.