Sweet 16 Preview: East Region

EAST REGION SWEET 16

Site: Syracuse
Tip-off: Friday

When the brackets were revealed on Selection Sunday, the East Region seemed ripe for chaos with many doubting No. 1 seed Villanova, and No. 2 seed Virginia struggling down the stretch. Those concerns manifested themselves to a tee, with both top seeds falling in the round of 32, leaving the East with seeds 3, 4, 7 and 8 heading to Syracuse.

The first game pits two ACC schools in No. 4 Louisville and No. 8 North Carolina State. The Wolfpack are surging thanks to an upset of Villanova, while the Cardinals proved doubters wrong by showing heart and desire in a victory over trendy upset-pick No. 5 Northern Iowa. North Carolina State advanced to the Sweet 16 for just the third time since 2005 and has not played in an Elite Eight contest since 1985. The Cardinals are in the tournament's second weekend for the third straight year.

The second matchup features the highest remaining seed, No. 3 Oklahoma, against a surging No. 7 Michigan State, which has again saved its best basketball for March. The Sooners are just one of two Big 12 teams remaining in the tournament's second weekend after seven of the 10 schools from the conference received bids. Michigan State is in its sixth Sweet 16 in the last seven years, advancing to the Elite Eight three times, including last season, and the Final Four twice. The Sooners have not advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2009.

No. 8 North Carolina State vs. No. 4 Louisville

Key Matchup: North Carolina State's Anthony "Cat" Barber vs. Louisville's Terry Rozier. This contest is not solely about what did and did not work in the teams' Feb. 14 matchup, won by North Carolina State on the road, 74-65. But the matchup between Barber and Rozier was a big factor and likely will be in the rematch, as well. In that game, Barber slashed his way to 21 points, largely by drawing contact in the lane en route to 13 free-throw attempts (making 10). Conversely, Rozier, the ACC's fourth-leading scorer during the regular season at 17.1 points, had a then season-low seven points on 3-of-11 shooting. Rozier averaged 18.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists in the Cardinals' first two Tournament games, but he has struggled from long range, going 4-for-25 since Feb. 28.

North Carolina State will Win IF: it can force tempo and rebound aggressively. In its eight losses, Louisville has allowed 66.1 points, four times giving up 70 or more points, a sizeable increase when compared to the 59.2 points allowed throughout the season. The Cardinals were also outrebounded by 3.5 boards per game, not a significant margin, but a telling one for a team that ranks 34th nationally in rebounds. The Wolfpack did both of these things in their Valentine's Day matchup, while only committing eight turnovers. Taking the game to the Cardinals is a proven path to success.

Louisville will Win IF: its defensive pressure provides easy offensive chances. The Cardinals use a physical, full-court defense to keep opponents out of their half-court offense as much as they do to create turnovers and fast-break chances. The Cardinals don't shoot the ball particularly well, hitting just 42.9 percent from the field, and the Wolfpack are capable of hitting the Cardinals in all of their strengths, specifically the aforementioned rebounding and tempo. The Cardinals need to get a handful of easy dunk opportunities for forward Montrezl Harrell, while also limiting the Pack's ability to get out and run after made baskets.

Player to Watch: Quentin Snider, Louisville. Snider played only 11 minutes in the regular-season meeting with the Wolfpack, collecting four fouls. In that game, Chris Jones, who has since been dismissed from the team, led the Cardinals with 20 points in 39 minutes. The Cardinals don't need that much from Snider on Friday, but they must have the player who averaged 13.0 points and 4.5 rebounds in the first two Tournament games as opposed to the one who was held to 7.6 points and 2.2 rebounds in the five games he started in Jones' absence before the Tournament.

Prediction: North Carolina State is one of the few teams that can match Louisville in pure talent. While guards Ralston Turner and Trevor Lacy might not be as highly sought after as Harrell and Rozier come the NBA Draft, the Wolfpack can go toe-to-toe at each position with the Cardinals as forwards Abdul-Malik Abu and Beejay Anya provide beef inside. The Pack also own wins over North Carolina, Duke and now Villanova, and have a growing confidence they can tackle anyone in front of them. With that in mind, beating teams multiple times in a season is easier said than done, and the Wolfpack were blown out in a rematch with Duke in the ACC Tournament. The Cardinals defense down the stretch will be the difference, as it gets a few key stops late and advances to the Elite Eight.

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 3 Oklahoma

Key Matchup: Michigan State's Branden Dawson vs. Oklahoma's TaShawn Thomas. The Sooners' frontcourt is scarily thin entering a game that figures to be physical on the block. Reserve forwards Khadeem Lattin and D.J. Bennett totaled only 35 minutes in the first two Tournament games against Albany and Dayton, neither of which had a player taller than 6-foot-8 play significant minutes. Thomas and Ryan Spangler will need to stay on the court and out of foul trouble for the Sooners to remain competitive, and Thomas is the much more accomplished offensive player, scoring at least 13 points in 10 of the last 13 games. Meanwhile, Dawson has scored at least 14 points in all five games since returning from an eye injury, providing the Spartans with offensive balance when paired with guards Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine.

Michigan State will Win IF: the Spartans continue to play lockdown half-court defense. Against Georgia and Virginia, Sparty allowed just 31.6 percent (36 of 114) shooting, including 19.3 percent (6 of 31) from three-point range, surrendering only 58.5 points per game. The Spartans use a simple formula of taking an early lead and clamping down defensively, killing all hope of a comeback run.

Oklahoma will Win IF: guard Buddy Hield does his thing, and gets help from backcourt mates Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodward. Hield has scored at least 15 points in seven consecutive games, three times topping 20 points. He's done so in a rather inefficient manner, however, only hitting 50 percent of his shots once in that span. The Spartans' defense keyed on Virginia's Malcom Brogdon last Sunday in the upset win, limiting him to nine points on 3-of-12 shooting and only two free-throw attempts. Meanwhile, Cousins, who averages 11.9 points, had just 15 total in the Sooners' first two Tournament games. Woodward forced his way to the foul line 10 times against Dayton en route to 16 points. The Sooners need this game to play at least in the 70-point range, and to do so, they'll likely need at least 45 points from these three guards, requiring tempo and hot outside shooting.

Player to Watch: Denzel Valentine, Michigan State. Valentine has been the more inconsistent of the Spartans' three scoring leaders, mixing in four- and three-point outings in his last five games, while also scoring 16 points twice and 23 points once. In those two poor outings, Valentine went just 2 of 14 from the floor, with both of his makes coming from behind the three-point line on nine attempts. His ability to hit shots takes some pressure off backcourt mate Travis Trice, who has topped 20 points twice in his last four games. Perimeter balance will open things up on the interior for Dawson to operate against just one defender, which in turn could lead to foul trouble for the Sooners' few large bodies.

Prediction: Oklahoma has been one of the more difficult teams to figure out throughout the year, with wins over Kansas, Iowa State, West Virginia, UCLA and Texas, while also losing twice to Kansas State and dropping games to Creighton and Washington. They weren't particularly challenged by Albany and Dayton last weekend in spite of a near home-court advantage for the Flyers on Sunday. They can expect to be hit in the mouth Friday by Michigan State, both literally and figuratively as the physical Spartans will look to impose their will from the opening tipoff. How the Sooners respond early will be telling, but the Spartans will have too much balance offensively and too much physicality defensively for Oklahoma to emerge victorious.