Sweet 16 Preview: East Region

East Region Sweet 16 Preview
West Region Sweet 16 Preview
Midwest Region Sweet 16 Preview
South Region Sweet 16 Preview

Site: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Tipoff: Thursday, March 23, 6:30 p.m. EST

I've been at Rotowire for probably a decade at this point, and the East Regional preview submitted last week may have been the most wrong I've ever been. Its of no consolation if you used it to help fill out brackets, but I at least saw some of this coming over the weekend, and have the bet slips to prove it! Still, picking zero of these four teams to advance was a tad embarrassing. Nonetheless, I'll press the reset button and see if we can do better moving forward. The top two seeds in Purdue and Marquette both fell in the opening weekend, as did No. 5 (but surging) Duke, leaving us with less sexy, but still entertaining, matchups with relatively tight spreads.

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Michigan State

Key Matchup: Markquis Nowell vs. Tyson Walker: It seems obvious to start with this marquee backcourt matchup, as we know guard play in March is paramount. The nation got to see the joy that is Nowell in action Sunday. The Bronx native returns home here, and if it's at all possible, he could have an extra bounce in his step. He averaged 22.0 points, 11.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 3.0 steals last weekend. Walker isn't the passer that Nowell is, but he can put up big scoring numbers when right, going for 19 or more in three of his last seven. He doesn't need to match Nowell here, but if he has a big game, and Michigan State controls the interior as I expect, Walker's production will make it tough for Kansas State to advance.

Kansas State will win IF: They rebound. Kansas State may have been more lucky than good in pulling away from Kentucky. The Wildcats were out-rebounded 44-25, allowing UK to take nine more shots despite Kentucky turning the ball over 16 times to KSU's eight. Protecting the ball in that game was a rarity for the surviving Wildcats; they rank 285th nationally in turnover percentage, coughing it up 19.8 percent of the time, the highest rate of any team still playing. Michigan State isn't a turnover creator, ranking a lowly 341st in opponent turnover rate, but with Kansas State's pace and frenetic style, you take the good with the bad and expect some miscues. Michigan State is far more efficient offensively than Kentucky, so KSU can't allow second-chance opportunities when the Spartans miss.

Michigan State will win IF: They knock down 3-pointers. Kansas State defends the arc well, ranking 15th by allowing opponents to connect on just 29.7 percent of their 3-point attempts. But Michigan State is sixth nationally in 3-point shooting, drilling 38.7 percent. Curiously, the Spartans survived the first weekend by hitting just 23.3 percent (7-of-30) against USC and Marquette. Sure, Kansas State can be vulnerable to offensive rebounding, perhaps allowing Sparty to get easy interior baskets. They also want to run and play wide open, and if they can do so, Michigan State will need more outside shots to fall to keep pace.

Player to Watch: A.J. Hoggard, G, Michigan State: Hoggard surged late in the regular season, averaging 17.5 points and 8.3 assists across his last four games, playing 31.5 minutes. In three games since, including the Big 10 Tournament, it's been just 11.3 points and 3.7 assists while playing three fewer minutes, largely due to foul issues. He's the team's best distributor, and if the game gets going up and down, Hoggard can provide a valuable scoring option as well. The Spartans will need the good version of Hoggard if they're to advance.

Prediction: Kansas State is so fun to watch, but that doesn't make the Wildcats a safe pick. They have ample warts; turnovers and rebounding have already been mentioned. They also can't shoot at times, going 9-for-36 (25.0 percent) from 3-point range in their first two wins, with many of those being less than ideal launches from Nowell. They'll again have their moments Thursday, but I look for the Spartans to take advantage of the Wildcats on the interior, take better care of the ball and create more scoring opportunities, effectively edging out a narrow win.

SWEET 16 PICK: Michigan State
 

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic

Key Matchup: Santiago Vescovi vs. Johnell Davis: For as much as we can talk about the Volunteers inconsistent, or lack of offense, Vescovi is the one constant they can count on. Despite a down opening-round game, he's scored in double-digits in all but three of Tennessee's last 15 games, averaging 13.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.3 steals. He's the clear straw that stirs this muddled drink. FAU meanwhile is an incredibly deep team, playing nine guys between 15 and 27 minutes. But it's Davis that they'll look to to sold Tennessee's defense and be asked to take shots late in the shot-clock. He can't wilt in the face of pressure for the Owls to have a chance.

Tennessee will win IF: They continue defensive intensity. Tennessee's first two games has seen them surge to a No. 1 ranking in defensive efficiency, first in 3-point defense, allowing just a 26.4 percent success rate, and second in effective field goal percentage at 42.7, holding Duke and Louisiana to 107 total points. It's been the Vols' calling card all season, but consider me a tad skeptical they'll bring the same energy for 40 minutes against a lesser named opponent in a game they're supposed to win. Offense has been their challenge all season, and that isn't going to suddenly change. The Vols have to continue getting stops.

Florida Atlantic will win IF: They play loose. FAU feels like they belong in this game, and they did go 1-1 against SEC teams in November, losing to Mississippi before beating Florida, but it's fair to worry if the opponent paired with the stage that is Madison Square Garden is too much. They are a top-30 offense and top-36 defense, so the Owls do have a path to success, but they are going to have to come out and knock down shots early. They are playing with house money, and if this game remains close, all of the pressure will fall on the Volunteers. 

Player to Watch: Josiah-Jordan James, G, Tennessee: In his first four games back from injury, James averaged 14.8 points while shooting 40.7 percent from 3-point range. Over his last three, it's fallen off a cliff to just 6.0 points and a 16.7 shooting percentage from deep. Everyone knows Tennessee struggles to score, but they've had random role players emerge to get them to this point, but they can't expect another 27-point outing from Olivier Nkamhoua here, as he'd been in double-digits just once in his last four. 

Prediction: FAUs depth and lack of a go-to scorer has me intrigued. Will that give the Owls extra legs late against a team that usually defends so hard, it can impact their offense? Can the lack of a go-to scorer make them harder to key on defensively, knowing you're not geared up to take one player away? The reason I doubted Tennessee last week was a lack of consistent scoring, so I believe the Owls can keep this close for a while. But ultimately, Tennessee will get more stops and knock a few big shots down, stretching this lead out over the game's final 10 minutes in route to a Saturday shot at the Final Four.

SWEET 16 PICK: Tennessee