Sweet 16 Preview: South Region

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South Region Sweet 16 Preview

SOUTH REGION SWEET 16 PREVIEW

Site: Louisville, Kentucky

Tip-off: Friday

Cinderella is alive and well in the South, as No. 15 Princeton became just the second Ivy League school (Cornell in 2010) to make the Sweet 16 since the Tournament expanded.  The Tigers stunned the mighty Arizona Wildcats in Round 1, outwitting the bigger, stronger, taller Goliaths.  The Tigers then dominated No. 7 Missouri virtually from start to finish, clinching a berth amongst the final 16 squads.  Princeton is the lone double-digit seed remaining in the Tournament.

The Tigers will face an overlooked No. 6 Creighton squad that outlasted No. 11 NC State, and then outgunned No. 3 Baylor by shooting nearly 50 percent from three-point land.  The Bluejays have made the Sweet 16 for the second time in three years.

Meanwhile, aside from Furman's first-round upset of Virginia, the top-half of the region played out true to form.  Unlike fellow No. 1 Purdue, Alabama found little resistance against No. 16 Texas A&M-CC in the opening round, then pulled away from No. 8 Maryland in the second half of their Round of 32 matchup.  The Tide won both contests by over 20 points.

Alabama should get its first real test of the tourney against No. 5 San Diego State, though.  The Aztecs are experienced, battle-tested and represent something of a clash of style as compared to the Tide.  San Diego State allowed fewer than 60 points in each of its first two NCAA Tournament triumphs.

With the matchups in the South now set, let's take a deeper look at the upcoming games.
 

No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 5 San Diego State

Key Matchup: Alabama's Jahvon Quinerly vs. San Diego State's Matt Bradley.  This clash between two seniors could have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.  Bradley is the leading scorer for the Aztecs, while Quinerly can really fill it up but has taken a backseat to freshman sensation Brandon Miller this season.  Bradley was the only Aztec to score in double figures in the opening-round win over Charleston, while Quinerly paced the Tide in Alabama's second-round triumph over Maryland with 22 points on 9-of-14 shooting.

Alabama will Win IF: Brandon Miller shows up.  Whether due to nagging injury, off-court distractions or something else, Miller has not looked like himself thus far during the NCAA Tournament.  The fact he was held scoreless in the opener against a No. 16 seed raised a few red flags, though he did bounce back with 19 points in the comfortable win over the Terps.  The competition stiffens now, though, and the Tide cannot afford another lackluster outing from their star player.  Make no mistake about it; the Aztecs will attempt to make life difficult for Miller.  However, he has to be the focal point if Alabama is to survive and advance from here on out.

San Diego State will Win IF: the Aztecs can contend with Alabama's rebounding ability.  San Diego State has dominated on the glass during its first two rounds of the tournament, but dealing with the staggering size of the Tide will be a whole different ballgame.  The Aztecs have one player over 6-9 (Nathan Mensah).  Alabama starts three players standing 6-9 or taller.  San Diego State allowed a total of 13 offensive rebounds combined in its first two contests.  Alabama tallied 30 offensive rebounds combined in its first two games.  Height is not always bottom line when it comes to rebounding, but the Aztecs will certainly have their work cut out for themselves to keep the Tide off the boards and from getting too many second-chance opportunities.

Player to Watch: Brandon Miller, F, Alabama.  Not to beat a dead horse, but Miller is the difference-maker in this game, as well as in this region as a whole.  Quite frankly, he has not even played that well thus far during March Madness, and Alabama has still had no trouble vanquishing its foes.  The Tide will need Miller to shoot better (5-for-22 combined through two tilts) and stay healthy, if they wish to advance to the Final Four.  Of note, Miller has struggled shooting against better defensive (5-for-15 versus UConn, 0-for-8 versus Houston) in matchups earlier this season against other Sweet 16 squads.

Prediction: This represents the first true test of the Big Dance for Alabama.  The extra week of rest should give the aforementioned Miller enough time to heal any ailments, as well as get his mind right for the push towards the Final Four.  The Aztecs have not faced an imposing front line like Alabama's, and the Tide can also complement those tall trees with silky smooth guard play.  The Aztecs are going to have to put down the defensive clamps on the Tide, but that is a big ask.  Alabama can win in a multitude of ways, and should find a way to outlast San Diego State en route to the Elite 8.

SWEET 16 PICK: Alabama
 

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 15 Princeton

Key Matchup: Creighton's Ryan Kalkbrenner vs. Princeton's Tosan Evbuomwan.  The 7-1 titan Kalkbrenner will have the height advantage against the 6-8 Evboumwan, but the latter was masterful against the Arizona's twin towers of Oumar Ballo and Azuolas Tubelis in Princeton's stunning first-round triumph.  Rebounding is truly a team effort for the Tigers; 6-6 freshman Caden Pierce is actually the leading rebounder for Princeton.  He has double-digits rebounds in four of the last five contests, including 16 boards in the second-round win over Missouri.  Still, Evboumwan is the key piece for the Tigers, leading the squad in scoring and dishing, while placing second in rebounding.  He plays heavy minutes and will not be intimidated by his bigger counterpart.

Creighton will Win IF: the Bluejays continue to get to the charity stripe.  Creighton has shot over 40 free throws in its first two contests.  The Bluejays have been lights out from the foul line, hitting 17-of-19 in the opening round, then following that performance up with a perfect 22-for-22 in the Round of 32.  Giving Creighton free throws is essentially giving them free points, and is a recipe for disaster.  The Tigers have played superior defense through the first two contests without fouling, as evidenced by the fact they've yielded just 14 foul shots combined through their first two outings.

Princeton will Win IF: the Tigers can defend the three-point line.  A big reason why Princeton was able to pull off back-to-back upsets was its play on the defensive end of the floor.  Princeton has allowed fewer than 60 points combined per game thus far this tourney.  Even more impressively, the Tigers allowed the opposition to shoot a combined 9-for-38 (23.7 percent) from beyond the three-point arc.  Creighton steamrolled Baylor by hitting 11-of-24 from long distance in its Round of 32 win, so the Tigers will need a similar defensive effort to keep the game within striking distance.

Player to Watch: Baylor Scheierman, G, Creighton.  The transfer from South Dakota State has hit some big three-pointers during the tournament, but he is far from just a one-trick pony.  Scheierman nearly notched a triple-double in the Big East Tournament Semifinal against Villanova, and has at least six rebounds and three assists in each NCAA Tournament contest.  He has not been asked to score as much for the Bluejays, but Scheierman shot nearly 47 percent from three-point land a season ago as a member of the Jackrabbits.  Scheierman has not been as lethal from beyond the arc this year, but he is still one of five Bluejays averaging double-figures in points, and could get hot at any time.

Prediction: Creighton won its first two contests in distinct ways.  In the opening round, Kalkbrenner punished NC State inside to the tune of 31 points.  In the Round of 32, Creighton canned double-digit three-pointers behind a 30-point barrage from Ryan Nembhard.  Creighton has allowed 30-point scorers in each of its first two tournament games, but was still somehow able to pull off the victories.  Princeton is used to being the underdog, though.  Can the Tigers channel Saint Peter's?  Can a No. 15 seed make the Elite 8 for the second year in a row?  Defense travels, and so does rebounding.  The Tigers have shown the ability to stymie the opposition when it counts.  Princeton does not need a plethora of three-pointers to go in like Cinderellas usually do; in fact, they can even survive a cold-shooting night from beyond the arc (4-for-25 versus Arizona).  The Big East has three teams in the Sweet 16, though Creighton is not a prototypical Goliath.  If the Tigers can defend without fouling, the clock may not strike midnight just yet.  Embrace the madness; Princeton will wear that glass slipper for at least one more round.

SWEET 16 PICK: Princeton