College Football Fantasy Five: ACC Over/Under Win Totals Check-In

College Football Fantasy Five: ACC Over/Under Win Totals Check-In

This article is part of our College Football Fantasy Five series.

Summer is here and it's a perfect time to take a look at some college football futures and identify some early value plays before people buy their college football magazines and place their wagers. Last week I examined some early conference championship plays (linked below) and now I'll take a look at some over/under win totals in each conference.

College Football Fantasy Five: Conference Champion Odds Check-In (6/21)
College Football Fantasy Five: Heisman Odds Check-In (6/14)
College Football Fantasy Five: Championship Futures Check-In (6/7)

For these win total articles, I'm going to utilize a similar format where I mention my fade (a team too tough to call), my two best under plays and my two favorite over plays. Odds are subject to change over time.

Let's start off with the ACC that breaks down as follows with a 12-game schedule:

11.5 - Clemson
10.0 - North Carolina
9.5 - Miami
7.0 - Virginia Tech
7.0 - Boston College 
7.0 - Louisville
7.0 - Pittsburgh
6.5 - Wake Forest
6.0 - NC State
6.0 - Virginia
5.5 - Florida State
5.0 - Georgia Tech
3.5 - Syracuse
3.5 - Duke

FADE ALERT (TOO TOUGH TO CALL)

5.) Clemson (11.5 Wins)

With 12 games on the schedule, you're betting for the Tigers to either go undefeated or to lose one game. They open the season with a blockbuster matchup against Georgia on Sept. 4 in Charlotte, so it's pretty much decided right there. For the regular season, Clemson will not play North Carolina or Miami who are part of the Coastal Division, so it really does come down to that game with the Bulldogs. Other non-conference opponents include South Carolina State and Connecticut which are easy wins. The Atlantic Division of the ACC could be a cake-walk for the Tigers as they only play one team who had a winning record in conference play last season.

BEST UNDER PLAYS

4.) Georgia Tech (5.0 Wins) *BEST BET

While the Yellow Jackets are going in the right direction with exciting offensive players like QB Jeff Sims and RB Jahmyr Gibbs, they have a long way to go in all other areas of their team. The defense was perhaps the worst of any in a power five conference in 2020 and they have an extremely tough schedule for 2021. They have to play Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Notre Dame and Georgia which are all losses in my opinion. That means they need to go 6-1 or better in their other seven games for the over to hit which makes this an easy under and my best bet!

3.) Syracuse (3.5 Wins)

The Orange's offensive line was an absolute train wreck last season which led to their 1-10 record. With the same coach (Dino Babers) and essentially the same team back for 2021, there's a small chance they reach four wins. Syracuse's four non-conference opponents include Ohio, Rutgers, Albany and Liberty. I believe their best-case scenario in those games is 2-2 and I just don't think they can win many games in the ACC this year as the entire conference has improved. It's crazy to think that Syracuse went 10-3 in 2018 as the Orange have gone in the opposite direction since that special season.

BEST OVER PLAYS

2.) NC State (6.0 Wins)

The Wolfpack have a brutal conference schedule as they play Clemson (Sept. 25), Miami (Oct. 23) and North Carolina (Nov. 26) who project to be the three best teams in the conference. However, I'm still betting the over for them as Dave Doeren has 19 returning starters from a team that went 8-4 in 2020 and still get to play all those other teams in the Atlantic Division who they beat last season. Zonovan Knight (aka Bam) will be a household name for this team as they're able to salvage at least seven wins during the upcoming season.

1.) Miami (9.5 Wins)

If QB D'Eriq King is fully healthy, this Hurricanes team is going to be one of the biggest surprises of the 2021 season. With 19 returning starters, they are one of the most experienced in the conference. Yes, they open the season with Alabama in a game they will likely lose, but I think it's a game that catapults them past the rest of their competition as they make a run at the ACC Title game in Manny Diaz's third year. If Miami gets the momentum going, I think they get a huge road win at North Carolina in October which puts them in prime position to play Clemson in the championship game and more importantly hit a 10-2 or 11-1 record during the regular season.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Nick Grays
Grays covers college football for RotoWire by night and is a Financial Analyst by day.
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