Bowl Game Pick 'Em: Confidence Picks

Bowl season is about to get into full swing Tuesday and is set up to be a fun one despite having fewer games than a normal year. For those who are unfamiliar with this format, confidence picks are straight up rather than against the spread, so we're just picking winners here and ranking them from most (28- Alabama) to least (2-Arkansas) confident. The spreads are included as a reference. For clarity, the team I side with is always listed first in the matchup. If you have any specific questions, please feel free to ask in the comments section.

For transparency, this list starts at 2 as the Myrtle Beach Bowl was played before this article was published. 

2.) Arkansas (+5.5) vs. TCU: Mecari Texas Bowl, Dec. 31

Don't let Arkansas' record fool you. The Hogs may be 3-7, but they've shown some backbone throughout the season and suffered some bad beats against Auburn, LSU and Missouri. 81 percent of the picks on ESPN are on TCU, and they're a mediocre team at best, so throwing two points behind Arkansas is a low-risk way of differentiating yourself.

3.) Louisiana Tech (+5.5) vs. Georgia Southern: R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 23

This one's a total wildcard in my opinion, but I give the lean to the Bulldogs given Georgia Southern's injury situation at quarterback. This is another game being picked as a gimme for Georgia Southern on ESPN, but I don't see it that way. I'll fade the public and throw a modest amount of points behind Louisiana Tech.

4.) Kentucky (-2.5) vs. North Carolina State: Taxslayer Gator Bowl, Jan. 2

82% of the picks on ESPN are on the 'Pack, but it's smarter to follow Vegas' lead here. Kentucky is a slight favorite despite being unranked, and part of that has to do with the coaching edge in the Wildcats' favor. Mark Stoops will have his guys ready and I will back the 'Cats with a low number of points. 

5.) Texas A&M (-6.5) vs. North Carolina: Capital One Orange Bowl, Jan. 2

This is a very tough game to sort through. Texas A&M is the better team with more talent on the defensive side of the ball, but I'm always leery of teams that just missed the cut of making the playoff, hence the low confidence here. North Carolina can look like a Top 10 team on a given week, but with key opt-outs hitting the Heels on both sides of the ball, I give the lean to the Aggies.

6.) Tulsa (-2.5) vs. Mississippi State: Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 31

This would have been a slam dunk on the Tulsa side if these teams were matching up a month ago, but Miss State seems to have figured some things out down the stretch. Tulsa's defense should be able to carry it to a win, however, capping off a great season for the Golden Hurricane.

7.) UAB (-6.5) vs. South Carolina: Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl, Dec. 26

South Carolina is a two-win bowl team. UAB just beat Marshall to win Conference USA. South Carolina has an interim head coach. UAB has Bill Clark. Back the Blazers. 

8.) Georgia State (-3.5) vs. Western Kentucky: LendingTree Bowl, Dec. 26

The Panthers get the edge here because of their offense, which ranks 38th in the nation in scoring offense. Western Kentucky doesn't have the talent on offense to keep up for 60 minutes. 

9.) Indiana (-6.5) vs. Mississippi: Outback Bowl, Jan. 2

The Hoosiers lost Michael Penix to a season-ending injury and came out the next week and beat Wisconsin in Madison. Their defense creates havoc, and that doesn't bode well for an Ole Miss team that is prone to turning the ball over with 18 total giveaways. Indiana ranks third in turnover margin, by contrast. Back the Hoosiers.

10.) BYU (-5.5) vs. Central Florida: Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 22

Central Florida's offense will keep it in this game, but BYU's defense should keep a lid on the Knights just enough to deliver a victory. On the other side, Zach Wilson and company should move the ball at will on the Knights. This is going to be one of the best games of Bowl Season and it's a treat to get it this early. In any case, Wilson and BYU are set up to get the W here, but Central Florida will keep this competitive enough to where I wouldn't put much more than 10 confidence points on the Cougs.

11.) Nevada (+1.5) vs. Tulane: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Dec. 22

Maybe I have the wrong read on this one, but I like the Pack here. Carson Strong and Romeo Doubs are one of the most dynamic QB-WR tandems in the nation, so I see the Nevada offense clicking. The key will be Nevada's ability to slow Tulane's rushing offense. If Nevada builds an early lead, Tulane might not be able to keep up.

12.) San Jose State (-7.5) vs. Ball State: Arizona Bowl, Dec. 31

A matchup between conference champs will be a fun one out in Arizona on New Year's eve. Ball State shocked a lot of people with its handling of Buffalo in the MAC championship, but San Jose State's win over Boise State may have been even more impressive. San Jose State is more multiple on offense than Buffalo and that should carry the Spartans over Ball State here. 

13.) Oregon (+4.5) vs. Iowa State

Iowa State is a tough out. The 'Clones are extremely well-coached and have a game-breaking running back in Breece Hall. Still, Oregon, despite some inexcusable losses, is the more talented side. The Ducks have a pass rush, led by Kayvon Thibodeaux, that will disrupt Iowa State's passing game and create long down-and-distance situations to get the 'Clones off their script. This is an Oregon team that, contrary to the Bill Parcells adage, is better than its record suggests. 

14.) Wisconsin (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest: Duke's Mayo Bowl, Dec. 30

It's been a tough season for the Badgers but they are still the more talented and physical side in this matchup. Wake Forest's low-efficiency passing attack could struggle and it's unlikely that the Deacs will be able to get much going on the ground. Expect an ugly, low-scoring win for the Badgers. 

15.) Northwestern (-3.5) vs. Auburn: Vrbo Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1

I came away from Northwestern's performance against Ohio State extremely impressed. The 'Cats have playmakers on defense and the offense, though not explosive, is enough to give them the edge in this matchup against a floundering Auburn team that might not bring its best effort. 

16.) Florida (-3) vs. Oklahoma: Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Jan. 1

As long as Florida doesn't no-show, it's hard to imagine the Gators dropping this one. The offense is explosive enough to hang with Alabama, and the Tide's defense is far superior to what the Sooners have on that side of the ball. The spread feels low to me here; this Oklahoma team is a step down from where it's been in recent years, even if it has been playing better down the stretch. I like the Gators with a solid amount of confidence points. 

17.) Miami (2.5) vs. Oklahoma State: Cheez-It Bowl, Dec. 29

This flies in the face of the Vegas line given the amount of confidence points I'm putting behind the 'Canes. It's hard to get Miami's drubbing at the hands of North Carolina out of my mind, but this is still a Miami team with a talent edge on both sides of the ball. Oklahoma State, though solid defensively, is decimated on offense compared to where it was to begin the season. 

18.) Coastal Carolina (-6.5) vs. Liberty: FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl, Dec. 26

Liberty will be competitive provided star quarterback Malik Willis is good to go, but this is a Coastal team playing at a higher level and looking to cap off an undefeated season. Coastal Carolina has the edge defensively and its offense is difficult to contain over 60 minutes. Again, Willis is going to be the best player on the field Saturday but Coastal is the better team. 

19) Army vs. West Virginia: AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31

This is an excellent Army team, having won nine games this season. The same cannot be said for this West Virginia, which is 5-4 and ranks 44th in our adjusted team ratings metric. Army, meanwhile ranks 16th. I tend to like option teams in bowl games, especially against teams with bad defenses. This was a tough draw for West Virginia. 

20.) Buffalo (-3.5) vs. Marshall: Camellia Bowl, Dec. 25

This hinges a bit on Jaret Patterson's status after he was injured in the MAC Championship game, but even if he can't go, the Bulls have a stellar run game that can be carried by Kevin Marks. Marshall stumbled down the stretch with a shutout loss to Rice (!!!) and an uninspiring loss to UAB in the C-USA Championship. The Herd will also be missing star running back Brenden Knox. Unlike Buffalo, Marshall doesn't have a great replacement for its starting RB. Bulls on Parade on Christmas Day. 

21.) Georgia (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati: Peach Bowl, Jan.1

Always beware of the Group of Five team in the New Year's Six game. This is a very good Cincinnati team that is deserving of its billing. But its calling card is defense, and Georgia's offense has too much talent now that J.T. Daniels is at the helm, so it's difficult to see Cincy keeping a lid on the Dawgs for the whole game. Cincinnati's offense is explosive, but it hasn't seen anything like what Georgia has defensively. As long as Georgia doesn't have a wave of opt-outs, the Dawgs should take care of business on New Year's Day.

22.) Clemson (-7.5) vs. Ohio State: Allstate Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1

The second college football semifinal should be more competitive than the Alabama-Notre Dame showdown, but there's still a clear favorite here. Sure, Ohio State hasn't played a full slate of games and therefore should be theoretically "fresher" but Justin Fields suffered a thumb injury in an ugly Big Ten Championship and has a relatively quick turnaround to be back at full strength for this one. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence and Clemson just dismantled Notre Dame. Ohio State won't have the luxury of Trey Sermon running for 300 yards on Clemson if the passing game isn't working. Ohio State is good, but Clemson is a cut above and arguably the best team in the country when it has Lawrence behind center.

23.) Houston (-12.5) vs. Hawaii: New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 24

Though neither of these teams is particularly good, Houston is clearly the better side. Hawaii's offense isn't nearly what we're used to seeing from the Rainbow Warriors and it could struggle against a competent Houston defense. Houston has an edge in playmakers on offense, too. Follow the spread here and throw 20+ confidence points on the Cougs.

24.) Texas (-10) vs. Colorado: Valero Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29

I don't love throwing this much behind Texas, but the matchup is too favorable to put any fewer than 20 on the Longhorns. Vegas has Texas has 10-point favorites and our metrics rank Texas as the 26th-best team in the nation while Colorado checks in at 66th. This could be quarterback Sam Ehlinger's final game in a Texas uniform, and despite the team's inefficiencies, I expect him to go out on top with an emphatic victory against an overmatched Buffs team. 

25.) Memphis (-8) vs. Florida Atlantic: Montgomery Bowl, Dec. 23

This is an interesting matchup in the sense that Florida Atlantic actually ranks higher than Memphis in our team rankings, but Vegas has the Tigers winning this one by more than a touchdown. Florida Atlantic's shaky situation at quarterback is a big determining factor for me backing Memphis with this many points. Memphis, meanwhile, has a steady quarterback in Brady White with an explosive supporting cast. The Tigers have too many playmakers to drop this one. 

26.) Iowa (-14.5) vs. Missouri: TransPerfect Music City Bowl, Dec. 30

Vegas has this one as one of the most lopsided matchups of bowl season. Iowa has distinct advantages on both sides of the ball and it's not hard to envision the Hawkeyes winning this one in suffocating fashion. I wouldn't argue against anyone wanting to put Iowa even higher in their confidence pools.

27.) Louisiana (-13.5) vs. UTSA: SERVPRO First Responder Bowl, Dec. 26

This one doesn't require a ton of thought. This is a bad UTSA team and Louisiana is a top-20 team favored by nearly two touchdowns. As long as Elijah Mitchell and Trey Ragas suit up, the Ragin' Cajuns won't have much trouble on Saturday.

28.) Alabama (-19.5) vs. Notre Dame: Rose Bowl*, Jan. 1

It's not the playoff's fault that this one will be so lopsided. Alabama is just that good. This Notre Dame team is of course very good, but its showing against the Trevor Lawrence-led Clemson Tigers shows that this Irish team has warts that get exposed against teams with an athletic advantage. It's hard to out-physical someone you can't catch, and I don't see Notre Dame being able to match Alabama athletically.