College Cappers: Picking Winners for Championship Week

Chris' Picks

Just when I thought I'd turned the corner, the oddsmakers do what they do. A major kick to the butt by Miami (OH), who turned a 27-14 halftime lead into a 41-27 defeat. Slim pickings for a comeback this week, but I'll just believe I'm going 5-0 and pen the column as such. A lot of favorites for me, and honestly, the underdogs are largely for variety not because I have great confidence.

With only 10 games on the slate, I'll opine five unofficial picks before getting to the official picks: 

Utah (-6.5) - Two great defenses, under makes too much sense, Utah likely needs style points.

Baylor (+9) - Sooners have been flirting with disaster lately, Baylor has covered in four straight and five of six.

UAB (+7.5) - I like FAU, but question preparation if Lane Kiffin is interviewing elsewhere.

Memphis (-9.5) - Too much ambiguity at QB for Cincy to trust, but the Bearcats labored through the last month and don't see them slowing Memphis down. Memphis was the last game I cut last week.

Ohio State (-16.5) - What's the catch? The over is likely the right call, or maybe tease both the total and OSU down.

Central Michigan (-6.5) vs. Miami (OH)

This isn't a jaded pick after last week. I mentioned then that Miami does nothing well, and was proven right, just made the wrong pick. Offensively, the RedHawks rank 96th in scoring, 99th in rushing and 115th in passing. Defensively, they are 72nd in scoring, 87th against the run, though 36th against the pass. That should set up well against CMU, which ranks 38th in rushing offense. The Chippewas have run for at least three TDs in six of their last seven, including 11 in their last two games. They are 6-1 SU and ATS in that stretch, scoring at least 42 points in all six of their wins. Miami can't match that.

Appalachian State (-6.5) vs. UL Lafayette

Appalachian State's 17-7 win over  Lafayette earlier this year seems like an anomaly for both sides, and I'm a big fan of ULL, which has won me some coin this season and likely will be a bowl game favorite. But it's never beaten ASU in seven tries, falling by an average of 20.8 points and 22.5 points on the road. I just can't see ULL going into Kidd Brewer Stadium and coming away with a win. The Mountaineers have lost just four games at home since 2015, only two of which were in conference. 

Boise State (-14) vs. Hawaii

This may fall into the too obvious category. Hawaii came to Boise State in early October and lost by 22, surrendering 59 points in the process, all while Boise State played three quarterbacks. Saturday's high is sitting in the mid-40s and rain is expected. Boise State ran for 203 yards and 5.2 yards per carry in their earlier matchup and should have no trouble replicating that against the Warriors' 111th-ranked run defense. That will keep Hawaii's passing attack sidelined, and force it into turnovers.

Georgia (+7) vs. LSU

I'm putting my faith in the Georgia defense. The Bulldogs posted two shutouts and haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game. That's likely going to change Saturday, but if Auburn can hold LSU to 23, I think the Bulldogs can perform similarly. I believe LSU is in the playoffs regardless of outcome, while this is a clear play-in game for Georgia. I could go as far as saying LSU fans may save its travel money for January, turning this into a virtual home game for Georgia. The Bulldogs' offense has been better lately, and the Tigers defense is beatable. A small moneyline play is in store for me, just for fun, but I'll take the points and probably wait as long as possible in hopes it moves up.

Clemson (-28) vs. Virginia

I've been against Virginia virtually all season, and the Cavaliers have always made me look foolish. That ends here. The Cavaliers' offense is still just a one-man show. That can work against the dregs of the ACC, but not against the Tigers. Clemson won't allow Bryce Perkins to beat it. In Clemson's last seven games, it hasn't allowed more than 14 points and has surrendered just six total in the last two games. Oh, and the Tigers scored at least 50 points four times in that stretch with a low of 38. Dabo Swinney has convinced them the world hates them, and they won't be bashful in throwing downfield against the Cavaliers depleted secondary.

Last week: 2-3; Overall: 32-39-1

GREG'S PICKS 

After a 1-4 showing last week, I certainly have my work cut out for me this week if I want to get back to .500, but as long as there are games being played, I still have a chance. As for last week, well, not much went right outside of West Virginia not only covering as a 13.5-point dog but winning outright. The losses were frustrating as Virginia Tech, Marshall and Minnesota were in the mix into the second half, but each faded as the final gun approached. As I look back at Minnesota's season, I'm still not exactly sure how to feel about the Gophers. A 10-2 record is impressive, but nine of their 10 wins came against terrible competition. They may never see a schedule like that again in our lifetime.   

Oregon (+6.5) vs. Utah 

Utah has been very impressive the last couple months, but the Utes have beaten up on some pretty bad teams during that span. I don't want to diminish what they've done, but how do we know that they're significantly better than Oregon? This line is a reflection of two things: Utah's play  the last couple months and its standing in the CFB playoff. Everyone knows that Utah needs a win to have a chance at the playoff ... which guarantees a win, right? I've witnessed this scenario before and there's no guarantee the team that needs it the most actually wins. Utah is not used to being in a spot like this, and I expect a loose Oregon team to give it fits.              

Oklahoma (-9) vs. Baylor 

The first time these two teams played, the Sooners nearly blew their CFB chances, but a furious rally saved their slim prospects. Since that game, Baylor has done everything it needed to get back into the CFB mix, as have the Sooners. The reason I'm siding with Oklahoma this week is its apparent improvement on defense since the first half of its first meeting with Baylor. I'm not putting too much stock into the second half of the Baylor game, as the Bears likely lost their edge after gaining a huge lead, but I liked what I saw last week against Oklahoma State. Throw in the fact that CeeDee Lamb was missing from the first game and you have what could be a game that gets away from Baylor.             

LSU (-7) vs. Georgia

In my opinion, LSU is the best team in the country. Its defense has looked bad at times, but part of that has been the competition and part of that has been a lack of urgency as the Tigers D' hasn't needed to show up all that often. The only game that's concerning is the Texas game as the defense nearly blew that one, but every other performance can be explained as either a lack of urgency or simply elite competition. Georgia doesn't have the offense that Alabama had, it won't be able to keep up if LSU's offense keeps producing. Can the Tigers put up 40 against the Bulldogs? Probably not, but they will probably get into the 30s, and I don't think the Bulldogs can get anything north of 28.

Over (56) Wisconsin vs Ohio State

I went back and forth on which side to take in this game, and I could make a case for both, but there were reasons to fade each side as well. Ohio State, for instance, could, of all things, fall victim to a letdown. I know it sounds crazy, but after high-intensity games against Penn State and Michigan, the Buckeyes have met their goal. They're in the playoff, at least that's what everyone says. Can they keep up the intensity for a third straight week knowing that this isn't a must-win game? The answer is … probably, but I'm not willing to lay 16 points. With that in mind, I'm looking at the total as even if OSU isn't focused, the offense is too good to get shut down. As for the Badgers, they are also coming off a rivalry win, but I doubt they'll have a letdown. Their problem is a huge talent gap. But even with that gap, I think they found something in their offense last week that can carry over to this week.            

Clemson (-28) vs Virginia 

It's borderline absurd that there is such a thing as a four-touchdown favorite in a conference championship game, but here we are. Clemson is clearly better than any team in the ACC and that obviously includes Virginia. I mentioned last week that Virginia has been "off" all season and yet the Cavaliers somehow managed to beat a solid Virginia Tech team last week. That is actually why I am siding with Clemson this week, though. Virginia left it all out on the field last week against the Hokies and I don't think they'll have much beyond an opening punch this week. Clemson meanwhile is trying to play the disrespect card and while that's absurd as well, it might actually work to inspire the players.         

Last Week: 1-4-0, Season: 33-36-2