College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 1

Chris' Picks

I guess starting the year 2-0 is a decent consolation prize to my 'Canes falling in Week 0. Last year this time, I felt like we could find clear mismatches to target, and it led to a moderate 3-2 record. This week, I'm honestly lost. I don't love a single thing below and will happily take 3-2 and move on to Week 2, where we can see plenty of over-reactions. Tread lightly.

Mississippi (+6) at Memphis

Feels like this is a hunch play and not much more. Memphis' offense will be dynamic, but I think the Rebels new pieces in QB Matt Corral and WRs Braylon Sanders and Elijah Moore can match points. Ole Miss' defense can't help but be better than it was in 2018, and move to a 3-4 will hopefully give Memphis less tape to scheme against early. Memphis played a nearly equally porous Missouri last year and got blasted, 65-33. This will be much closer, and points will come freely, but I think the Rebels can win this outright, so getting points appears favorable. 

Virginia Tech (-4.5) at Boston College

I really wish the deadline for this article was earlier because the line movement is scaring me a bit. It opened at -2 and we're clearly seeing a public pushing the Hokies to a higher number, never a side I enjoy being on. But this matchup seems simple to me. VT has the makings of a balanced, explosive offense. Boston College doesn't, as it's AJ Dillon and not much else. Prior to last year, the Hokies had beaten the Eagles in three straight by an average of 26 points, none closer than 13. Virginia Tech's defense will be much improved.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) vs. Virginia

The Cavaliers have beaten Pitt just once since 2013, and never in the Steel City, where they've averaged 13 points and lost by 10.6 in their three visits. We can worry about Pitt's loses at RB all we want, but that's been largely plug and play over the years. What hasn't been is Virginia skill positions. While Bryce Perkins will be the best player on the field, Pitt held him to a season-low minus-seven rushing yards last year. With no clear replacement for 1,000-yard rusher Jordan Ellis, or dynamic yet safety valve WR Olamide Zaccheaus, Virginia will struggle to score. I think Virginia is a bit overvalued, and in a likely one-possession game, I'll take the points at home.

Toledo (+11.5) at Kentucky

Toledo's offense is loaded with returning skill after averaging 40.4 points a year ago. Kentucky has three holes to fill across its offensive line in addition to all-league RB Benny Snell. QB Terry Wilson threw for only 1,889 yards, 11 TDs and eight INTs last year. I expect a methodical approach from the Wildcats, who also have seven holes on defense to plug. I don't see a Rockets upset, but they should score enough to keep this inside the number.

Auburn (-3.5) vs. Oregon (at Arlington, Texas)

This will contradict most of what I mentioned above in Toledo-Kentucky, but we can also argue Auburn and Kentucky aren't recruiting the same caliber player. Simply put, until I see Pac-12 (or non Clemson ACC) team step up and handle an SEC team in the trenches, I won't believe it will happen. Case in point; Miami last weekend against Florida, and last year against LSU. I absolutely loath the QB disparity between likely top-10 pick Justin Herbert and Auburn true freshman Bo Nix, but this game will be won across the lines. Eventually, the Tigers wear down the Ducks, and assert their physical dominance.

Last Week: 2-0; This Season: 2-0

GREG'S PICKS

There's an old saying about betting on college football that I just made up and it goes like this – the only thing more difficult than week one, is week zero. You know I just made that up because prior to last week, the phrase "week zero" was not part of our lexicon, but it surely is now. As for last week, a 1-1 week to start is not bad when you consider I had two games to choose from. Onto the week one picks and as always, this early in the season, tread lightly. 

Colorado (-13.5) vs. Colorado State

Neither team was all that impressive last season, but unlike CSU, the Buffs' have most of their skill players returning. Both of these teams are in for a long season in-conference, and both will want to get a fast start with a win in week one, but only the Buffs have the weapons to win this game. Colorado will struggle in-conference all season long, but it will get off to a good start under the new regime in Boulder.        

Toledo (+11.5) at Kentucky 

Kentucky is coming off its best season in a while, but the 'Cats lost their two best players to the pros in the off-season. Not only were they the two best players, but they were essentially one-man shows on each side of the ball. Without Benny Snell, the offense, which struggled at times last season, is in for a long season. The defense no longer has the best edge-rusher in the nation, Josh Allen, and opposing teams will no longer have to worry about getting the ball out in .2 seconds. The Rockets are no pushover and should be able to keep this within one score.       

Under (55.5) Auburn vs. Oregon

The last time this Ducks team faced a tough defense, the final score was 7-6. Okay, this isn't last season and Auburn's defense probably isn't as good as Michigan State's was last season, but you get the point. It's one thing to tear apart the PAC-12 defenses on a weekly basis, but it's a whole different world when you are facing a legitimate SEC defense with arguably the best defensive line in the country. As for the Tigers, well, they've got a brand new QB taking over and it might take a little time to hit their stride.

Under (80) Houston vs Oklahoma

I landed on the Houston-under a couple times late last season and it burned me every time, but this is a new year. This ties into the PAC-12 comment made earlier in that sometimes, conference games get out of hand and teams that look unstoppable in-conference, just aren't the same out of conference. While Oklahoma hasn't boasted a strong defense in years, the Sooners still bring a better defense than most in the American Athletic. Houston also lost all-world offense coordinator Kendal Briles, which is bound to have a negative impact on its production this season.

Notre Dame (-20.5) at Louisville 

Louisville was 2-10 last season and it wasn't a case of one play here and there and all of the sudden the Cardinals are 6-6. No, this team was handled, week in and week out. Can they improve this season? I don't see how they can't, but it's not going to be a quick turnaround. Notre Dame meanwhile has their QB back, along with many contributors from last year's team. The Irish get off to a good start this season by blowing-out the hapless Cardinals.

Last Week: 1-1, Season: 1-1