College Cappers: Picking Winners Week 4

Chris' Picks

What do you know — Week 3 turned into a winning week, finally. More important, I stayed away from games that felt like traps. Those avoidance plays have been 5-1 the last two weeks. Maybe I need to trust my gut a little more. A lot of big favorites for me this week, and all on the road, which doesn't sound like a great strategy.

Boston College -7 at Rutgers

This definitely feels like a trap to avoid, but I can't help myself. I've never been a big believer in BC QB Anthony Brown, and the Eagles were out of their element last week against Kansas once falling behind. I'll ignore their defensive effort and chalk it up to Les Miles completely changing the Jayhawks offense between Weeks 2 and 3. Rutgers didn't score at Iowa last week, and despite crushing bottom-feeding UMass in Week 1, it allowed the Minutemen to rush for 5.4 YPC on 34 attempts. I like the Eagles to feed AJ Dillon and look more like the team we saw beat Virginia Tech in Week 1 with relative ease.

Coastal Carolina -17 at Massachusetts

I'm going to go to the UMass well whenever the spread is less than 21 points, and will probably go back to it even if I lose the week prior. Through three weeks, the Minutemen have been outscored 145-58 by Rutgers, Southern Illinois and Charlotte — not exactly murderer's row. Using a few spread predictors, Coastal would be somewhere between a slight favorite to no more than a field goal underdog against those three teams on a neutral field. The Chanticleers allowed 14 points in its last two games, went to Kansas and won and challenged an EMU team in Week 1 that beat Illinois last week. 

Temple -14 at Buffalo

My favorite hunch play last week was Liberty to wake up and take down Buffalo, and again, I didn't trust myself enough to state as such. Buffalo is just a bad, overmatched football team at this point, suffering major personnel losses on both sides of the ball from a year ago that it hasn't yet replaced. The Bulls have no semblance of a passing attack, averaging only 160.3 yards per game, which will allow Temple's 30th-ranked run defense to key on the Bulls' ground game. We saw what the Owls D can do last week, holding Maryland to 17 points. I'd be shocked if Buffalo gets that many. The Bulls defense has allowed 604 yards and eight TD passes in the last two weeks, while Temple QB Anthony Russo has 686 yards and seven TDs in two games. Temple wins easily.

Oregon -10.5 at Stanford

Where has the Cardinal pass defense gone? A unit that allowed 264 yards per game and only 14 TD passes a year ago has allowed 724 yards and seven scores the last two weeks against USC and UCF. That seems like really bad news with Justin Herbert and the Ducks coming to town. Oregon has rolled up 715 yards and 12 TD passes in the last two weeks. The return home figures to be a boost for Stanford, but Oregon threw for 346 yards against them last year, and I expect them to be fired up to face the Cardinal after giving the game away to them a year ago. 

Troy -17 at Akron

Akron might be the worst team in FBS outside of Massachusetts. They're 0-3 SU and ATS with losses to Illinois, Central Michigan and UAB by a combined 118-47. Again, using predictive spread models, Troy would be no worse than a pick 'em against those three. Last week's 45-24 loss to CMU really sticks out for the Zips, as CMU is certainly in that bottom tier of programs this season as well. The Chippewas defense ranks 115th against the run and pass while Troy comes in with the nation's fourth-best passing attack. QB Kaleb Barker hasn't thrown an interception and should have a field day putting up points. Akron could find success through the air, but not enough to keep this competitive.

Other games of note: Miami (-29.5) OC and former Central Michigan head coach Dan Enos had some interesting things to say this week about his former employee. I think he runs this up. Florida State (-6.5) has no business being favored over anyone. And I'm not sure Toldeo's (-9.5) defense is good enough to blow out Colorado State, even with CSU QB Collin Hill out.

Last week: 3-2; Season 8-9

GREG'S PICKS

Last season, I was locked into a 3-2 or 2-3 pattern for most of the year, and while it was frustrating at times, I avoided a really bad week. This is a new season, however, and unfortunately; I had a bad week last week, going 1-4. While a couple of the losses were bad, see Indiana and N.C. State, the other two, I was either well ahead of the number heading into the fourth quarter, see Colorado State, or had a chance to win near the end of the game, see the Virginia over. Close games don't go your way during bad weeks, though, that's how they end up going bad. The lone win was the over in the UCF game, which was a fairly easy cover. 

Illinois (+13.5) vs Nebraska

Two weeks ago, Illinois was favored by three touchdowns on the road at Connecticut and now it's almost a two-touchdown underdog at home against a team that has yet to prove anything. Look, I'm not sure if Illinois is any better this season than it was last season, but it has enough talent that from time to time, it can give teams fits. The Cornhuskers got back on track last week, but I'm still skeptical that they are in a position to be laying this much on the road in conference.       

Northwestern (+9.5) vs Michigan State 

Not only was the Spartans' loss at home last week to ASU bad, it was demoralizing. Demoralizing because the Spartan offense, which looked better through the first two weeks, might in fact be just as bad this season as it was last season. Beyond the loss, questions are now being asked about the direction on this team under Mark Dantonio and his ability or inability to ever get this offense going again. As for Northwestern, the Wildcats don't appear to be anything special this season, but at home, they'll give MSU a fight and that's all it will take to stay inside the number.        

Wisconsin (-3.5) vs Michigan 

We'll stay at home in the Big Ten again, but this time, it's the favorite that looks like the play. Michigan isn't as bad as it looked against Army a couple weeks ago, but there were some troubling issues that arose during that game, issues the Badgers can take advantage of. Specifically, the Wolverines looked weak up front and that's an issue against Wisconsin. The Badgers have overperformed early in the season, and this is a huge measuring stick for them. I think they pass with flying colors this week and reestablish themselves as a top-tier Big Ten team.

Over (73) Oklahoma State at Texas

It was just a couple weeks ago that LSU visited Austin and morphed into a Big 12 team. LSU is from the SEC, of course, and generally plays some strong defense, but Texas sucked the Tigers into a shootout. This week, Texas won't need to encourage the Cowboys to get into a shootout because that's their game! OSU has surrendered 20 points a game in its non-conference portion of the schedule, and those opponents aren't exactly offensive juggernauts. Texas, meanwhile, is quite the juggernaut on offense. This game is going to wild and the over should be attained early in the fourth quarter.   

Over (61.5) Florida State vs Louisville 

Fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice, well, let's just see how this plays out. Seriously, the over play on FSU last week almost came through and if not for some clock mismanagement at the end of the game, it would have gone over. As for this week, nothing has changed with the Seminoles; they have a good offense and not much of a defense. Meanwhile, Louisville, which was terrible last season, has actually shown some improvement this season, mainly on offense. Look for the Seminole defense to struggle again and the offense to try and bail them out again.

Last Week: 1-4-0, Season: 7-8-1