College Football DFS: Friday Slate Week 8

Friday's slate of college football games varies a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel, but we'll cover both the core games and the outliers unique to both sites.

SLATE OVERVIEW

Jacksonville State @ FIU (-10.5) O/U: 59.5 (DRAFTKINGS ONLY)

Tulsa @ South Florida (+10.5) O/U: 50

Louisiana @ UAB (+2.5) O/U: 50.5

Illinois @ Wisconsin (-19.5) O/U: 51.5 (FANDUEL ONLY)

The most intriguing matchup involves Louisiana and UAB.  The Ragin' Cajuns are picking up the pieces after a heartbreaking loss to Coastal Carolina, which kicked them out of the AP Top 25.  I expect them to use a crushing ground game to tame the Blazers, who have been extremely forgiving to opposing running backs. There is no particular team to fade with such a small slate, but you should streamline your lineups at quarterback and wide receiver because there are a couple of guys who are chalk adds in both formats.

NOTE: When analyzing numbers on DraftKings snd FanDuel, be aware that players' stats are, for the most part, incomplete.  The stat outlet that's used by several companies (including us) experienced a massive outage last week, which you probably experienced if you played any Week 7 college slates. It's also compromised historical data as well.

QUARTERBACK

Zach Smith, Tulsa (DK $6,700, FD $9,100) @ South Florida

Windy conditions in this game may drive the total down, but former Clemson OC Jeff Scott hasn't yet put the pieces together defensively for the Bulls, and they've surrendered a few touchdowns to the long ball this season.  When Smith connects with his wideouts, it's usually for max yardage, and Tulsa's defense should keep South Florida off the field.  I'm taking the Under in this game, but barring turnovers, I like Smith's price and potential on both sites.

Levi Lewis, Louisiana (DK $7,100, FD $8,500) @ UAB

These two teams are arguably the cream of the crop in the Group of Five, but the line on this game is a bit of a head-scratcher.  Sports bettors should be all over the current -2.5 cover bet, and I expect the line to skyrocket leading up to kickoff. The focal point of the Ragin Cajuns' offense is the ground game, but Lewis runs the offensive efficiently. He's streaky, but he tends to show up big in late-game moments, and the Blazers' defense isn't a big concern for a Lousiana passing offense that is better than the numbers indicate.

Bryson Lucero, UAB (DK $6,800, FD $7,400) vs. Louisiana

The Blazers were forced to throw the redshirt freshman out there due to Tyler Johnston's injury, and this is one of those game stacks where you're going to want to group the passing offense that's most likely to play from behind on Friday. Lucero's mixed flashes of brilliance (319 yards versus South Alabama with some real clunkers (3 INT against UTSA), but he's probably the team's best chance to keep this game close. I expect the Cajuns to shut down Spencer Brown and make the Blazers beat them in the air.

RUNNING BACK

D'Vonte Price, FIU (DK $8,000) vs. Jacksonville State (DK ONLY)

Price is a bruising 6-2 back who can do a lot of damage with limited carries. While Shaun Peterson (DK $4,500) looms as a guy who can break off some big plays, the bulk of the rushing attack should flow to Price over the sophomore.  The timeshare might make Price seem a bit overpriced, but the DK slate can give you a few spend-up options due to the relatively modest prices at quarterback.

Elijah Mitchell, Louisiana (DK $8,300, FD $9,600) @ UAB

Mitchell and his counterpart Trey Ragas (DK $5,300, FD $7,500) should run all over the Blazers, and you shouldn't be afraid to stack this tandem in a couple of your lineups. The two have combined for 469 yards on the ground, and they are elusive out in space. Ragas is more of a North-South bruiser who could show up at the goal line, but I favor Mitchell as the more diverse option.

Josh Samuel, Jacksonville State (DK $4,200) vs. FIU (DK ONLY)

Hidden in the bargain bin, the Western Kentucky transfer is making waves in the Gamecocks' running game, and he should help keep your costs down as a less-popular add. At certain points in my builds, he had exposure in about half of my lineups, but I pared it down a bit to give more play to Chris Smith (DK $4,100, FD $5,900), who isn't a bad third option for Louisiana.

WIDE RECEIVER

Austin Watkins, UAB (DK $7,000, FD $9,200) vs. Louisiana

Watkins' potential is tied directly to Bryson Lucero's potential to improve, and if there's any game where the tandem will need to show up, it's this one.  Watkins reminds me a bit of DeAndre Hopkins, and it's probably partly due to the sudden transition to a different quarterback and his need to adjust to the youngster signal-caller. Watkins can only aid Lucero's progression into a full-fledged starter, and I think this is the only path to a fighting chance for the Blazers in this matchup.

Josh Johnson, Tulsa (DK $5,900, FD $7,500) @ South Florida

I have no issue with Keylon Stokes, but I like Johnson's production relative to his salary point.  Despite the iffy game conditions at game time, Tulsa will still lean on the passing game as their bread and butter, and like Stokes, Johnson is a touchdown magnet for Zach Smith. If I can get similar production in Tulsa's passing offense for a bit less cash, I'll gladly swing to it.

Myron Mitchell, UAB (DK $5,800, FD $8,300)  vs. Louisiana

We've already touched on Watkins, but Mitchell came through with a breakout performance in the loss to Miami and gets almost as much action as Watkins in the passing game.  He may be inferior to Watkins in snaring the big play, but he's a very dependable possession receiver and can pile up points in the PPR format. As I said, they'll be playing from behind, and they'll need to air it out.

We'll now give a bit more attention to the outlier games on both sites.

Jacksonville State @ FIU

The Gamecocks have an excellent tight end in Trae Barry (DK $6,100), who should rack up the most targets in the wideout corps on Friday night. Dave Russell (DK $5,200) is another player that should see some decent production in Jacksonville State's passing game.  For FIU, Bryce Singleton (DK $5,600) is an intriguing option.  He's just returning to action and had an encouraging outing against Liberty, but the problems at the quarterback position make this a high-variance play.

Illinois @ Wisconsin

Saturday should be interesting as all the Big Ten teams are coming out to play.  To nail these games, you'll have to dig a bit deeper to get a good idea of snap counts for players, so we'll do our best with this one. For Wisconsin, they are moving forward with freshman Graham Mertz (FD $9,800) at quarterback after the injury to Jack Coan.  Mertz was a four-star recruit and could give some surprise value on this slate.  The Badgers are always a dependable source of rushing talent, and despite the loss of Jonathan Taylor, they'll still carry the rock often. In that role, I favor Garrett Groshek ($7,300) over Nakia Watson, although I could end up eating my words there. As for the Fighting Illini, they face an uphill battle, and I don't see myself giving much exposure to them.  Their defense will be their best option in staying in this game, although you could do worse than give Brandon Peters ($7,900) a look as a contrarian quarterback on the slate. Josh Imatorbhebhe ($7,800) should be his primary target, and if his junior season was any indication, he could be in line for big numbers as Illinois fights to keep up.