College Football DFS: Week 4 Night Slate

Week 4 Night Slate

Nebraska @ Michigan State

Tennessee @ Florida

Kentucky @ South Carolina

North Texas @ Louisiana Tech*

Navy @ Houston

Kansas State @ Oklahoma State

West Virginia @ Oklahoma

Akron @ Ohio State*

Southern Mississippi @ Alabama*

*Denotes FanDuel Only

Matchup Info

Overall Target Leaders

Target Leaders (Last Week)

Position-By-Position Breakdown

Quarterback

The big quarterback shakeup on the slate is in Columbus with C.J. Stroud likely sitting out with an injury. There's no discount on either Kyle McCord or Jack Miller, though. The Buckeyes still have the highest implied total on the board but chasing either signal-caller could be a huge money sink.

Austin Kendall ($10,600) Louisiana Tech vs. North Texas FANDUEL ONLY

It's too bad this game isn't on both slates but at least we have it in one spot as this matchup has the second-highest total on the slate but has a spread that implies a competitive game with the Bulldogs favored by 11 at home. 

Kendall comes into this one having thrown for 837 yards and three touchdowns with an 8.5 YPA through three games and he's added something as a runner with 98 yards and three scores. He'll face the worst pass defense on the board by YPA (9.6). Kendall gets a soft matchup through the air and his added rushing ability makes him a premier play on FanDuel for Saturday night. 

Spencer Rattler ($10,200 FD; $9,600 DK) Oklahoma vs. West Virginia

Rattler leads all quarterbacks on DraftKings in terms of salary -- $600 more than Sam Howell! -- but is fifth on the board at FanDuel, which is more appropriate given his performance to date. Still, this is a quarterback who could easily lead all players in scoring on this slate; the talent is there, as are the weapons. Rattler had five games of at least three touchdown passes in 2020; I understand we're running out of runway for referencing last year's stats, but there's no way that player has evaporated completely. Two lackluster games against FBS competition this year doesn't mean Rattler is toast. It does mean the pressure's on for him to get things turned around, though, and I'm betting he will here. West Virginia gave up 332 passing yards to Maryland in the opener and can be beaten through the air by this offense. End of rant. 

Will Levis ($9,000 DK; $6,400 DK) Kentucky at South Carolina

Sure it's a road night game against a conference opponent. But it's also a road night game against South Carolina. 2021 South Carolina. That's not a good team. Playing SandStorm really loud isn't going to bridge the gap in quality between these teams. 

Now, onto Levis. He's reasonably priced on FanDuel and a steal on DraftKings relative to his peers. Levis was obviously shaky in a too-close-for-comfort win over Chattanooga last week. But Levis has a high ceiling thanks to arm strength and playmakers around him like Wan'Dale Robinson and Josh Ali. Levis can also run (510 career rushing yards), he just hasn't been asked to do so thus far at Kentucky. The Wildcats have an IT of just 26.75. I'm betting the 'Cats shake off the sluggish performance from a week ago and take care of business Saturday with Levis as the driving force behind that comfortable victory. 

Ike Ogbogu ($8,000 FD; $4,500 DK) Houston vs. Navy

Quick disclaimer: This one only goes if Clayton Tune (undisclosed) can't play. But if Tune can't go, this is about as soft of a landing as you could hope for in a first start. Ogbogu came in and lit up Grambling State last week in relief of Tune, which doesn't mean much beyond that he did what he was supposed to do. But a full game's worth of plays against a hapless Navy defense can be fruitful for Ogbogu, particularly on DK where he's going the same salary as a middling RB2 or slot receiver. Keep an eye for the injury report here, but Ogbogu could change the slate if he gets the start. 

Running Back

Ty Chandler ($8,800 FD; $6,200 DK) North Carolina at Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech may have held Clemson to 14 points last weekend but that should not dissuade you from having interest in the UNC offense on Saturday. Vegas expects North Carolina to score nearly 40 points on Saturday, and that's more telling than whatever perceptions came out of last weekend. UNC will light up the scoreboard and Chandler will be a big part of it.

The Tennessee transfer is dominating the backfield share and has been electric with his opportunities, ripping 322 yards and three touchdowns on 45 carries (7.16 YPC) through three contests. Georgia Tech coughs up over 161 rushing yards per game and the run game was the only spot that Clemson had success last week. Look for North Carolina to test that weakness this week with Chandler as the featured back. 

Jaylen Warren ($8,700 FD; $5,500 DK) Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State

Much has been made of Kansas State's run defense. That's fair; the 'Cats surrender fewer than 2.0 yards per carry and a total of 54.7 rushing yards per game. But Oklahoma State's entire offense flows through its run game now and Warren is the engine behind it. Warren, a Utah State transfer, gashed a respectable Boise State defense for 218 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. He had 32 carries in that one, showing that Oklahoma State is more than willing to put the game in his hands when the game is close. We have a slate-low 47.0 total in this one so this is not a game to stack, but Warren as a one-off is still a nice play despite the matchup.

Markese Stepp ($6,100 FD; $4,600 DK) Nebraska at Michigan State

If you're buying into Nebraska keeping this one competitive (or even pulling the upset) then a look at the Husker offense is necessary. Obviously, quarterback Adrian Martinez takes up a fair amount of oxygen in the run game, but there's still room for production from the running backs. With Gabe Ervin going out for the season with an injury, the path is clear for Stepp to take on a larger role in the Husker backfield. He was already leading the Husker backs in carries per game (10.0) and now with Ervin sidelined that role should expand. Ervin was actually leading the team in carries with 37 but had one more appearance than Stepp. 

If you want to go further down the board, Sevion Morrison ($5,200 FD; $4,200 DK) should see more work now as well. Morrison drew rave reviews in preseason and then memorably did not play in Week Zero. He has since gotten in the mix and scored a pair of touchdowns on 18 carries. Both Stepp and Morrison should provide solid value at running back Saturday if your build is in need of savings there to load up at quarterback and receiver. 

FanDuel Only: TreVeyon Henderson ($8,500) Ohio State vs. Akron

This one is fairly straightforward. The only concern is how many carries Ohio State will bother to give Henderson against an overmatched opponent when it will need him down the stretch. Still, Henderson is set to play and even 10 total touches should be enough for him to hit value -- he's that good and Akron is that bad.

Wide Receiver

Wan'Dale Robinson ($8,800 FD; $6,000 DK) Kentucky at South Carolina

I'll keep going to the Wan'Dale well until his salary matches his performance. He's third on the slate in overall targets, holds an insane 36.9 percent target share and is executing at a clip of 10.9 yards per target, a full yard above the baseline of the offense. 

Of course, South Carolina knows that it has to do everything it can to slow down Robinson. I'm just not sold it can do that without leaving itself vulnerable to the run, which Kentucky would be all too happy to oblige. And on top of that, Robinson can contribute as a runner with 580 rushing yards in two years at Nebraska. He's too important to Kentucky's offense to ignore on this slate, especially on DraftKings with the full-point PPR.

Nathaniel Dell ($8,500 FD; $6,100 DK) vs. Navy

I'm in on Dell regardless of Clayton Tune's status Saturday. Dell is commanding a 30 percent target share and rocks an impressive 10.4 YPT mark. Even if Ogbogu is something of a downgrade from Tune in what would be his first start, the matchup against a Navy defense that allows 9.6 YPA to opposing passers is enough to bridge that gap and keep Dell viable. 

Jadon Haselwood ($6,100 FD; $5,000 DK) and Mario Williams ($5,400 FD; $4,900 DK)

This ties in with my bet that Oklahoma's offense, and namely its passing game, wakes up Saturday. Williams continues to be underpriced relative to his talent, potential, and even his production. The five-star freshman ranks second on the team in targets (18) and though his efficiency isn't eye-popping (6.4 YPT), he still has two receiving touchdowns on 13 grabs and clearly has the trust of Rattler. He's got more floor than his salary suggests. 

As for Haselwood, he actually leads the Sooners in targets (19) and receptions (14). He has a pair of touchdowns and is a former blue-chip recruit in his own right who drew nine targets in a tightly contested game last week. Look for him to see plenty of work against West Virginia.

Marvin Mims ($7,800 FD; $7,800 DK) is interesting as well; he has been explosive with his production (16.8 YPT) but has just 10 targets through three games. He's still not getting much of a discount but his lack of production could drive his roster percentage down. If he goes off, which he certainly could, Mims would give his backers plenty of leverage. 

Omar Manning ( $5,700 FD; $4,000 DK) Nebraska at Michigan State

This is another pick that somewhat hinges on the status of another player. Oliver Martin is questionable and has been out since the opener; if he's out again, Manning is firmly on the radar Saturday. Manning has long had high expectations for the Huskers and is starting to deliver. He has caught all seven of his targets for 132 yards and has gone over 50 yards in each of his last two games. He projects to have a role regardless of Martin's status, but Manning could be in prime position to produce if Martin is sidelined.