College Football Picks: Alabama vs Vanderbilt Best Bets and Predictions
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Week 6 brings us a much-anticipated rematch of last year's biggest upset of the season. For the first time since 2008, College Football Gameday presented by ESPN is on site for a game involving Vanderbilt. This one's in Tuscaloosa, though, and Alabama will look to get revenge from its first true loss to Vandy since 1984 (Alabama has three wins that were either forfeited or vacated in that time frame, 2007, 2006, 1993 due to NCAA sanctions).
Vanderbilt comes in with what might be their best team in program history, as they are currently undefeated (5-0) and ranked 16th in the AP poll. Alabama, fresh off a big win at Georgia, is sitting at number 10 in the AP Poll.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Betting Odds for Week 6
Spread: Vanderbilt +10.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Alabama -10.5 (BetMGM)
Moneyline: Vanderbilt +340 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Alabama -400 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: Over 55.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Under 55.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Alabama vs Vanderbilt Betting Picks for Week 6
Vanderbilt comes into Tuscaloosa with a record of 5-0, but how much they've truly been tested is a bit of a question. Three of Vanderbilt's five wins have come against less-than-stellar opponents in Charleston Southern, Georgia State and Utah State. Meanwhile, their other two wins have been over a Virginia Tech team that started off 0-3, including a loss to Old Dominion leading them to fire their head coach, and a 3-2 South Carolina team that has been less than stellar to start the season. SC was also missing LaNorris Sellers for much of that game. This Week Six matchup against Alabama will truly kick off their SEC schedule as they start to get into the meat of the conference.
So far through five games, Vanderbilt ranks well across the SEC in most statistics. The Commodores offense sits at second in the SEC in points per game (PPG) with 49, second in the SEC in rushing yards per game with 223.4, and seventh in the SEC in passing yards per game with 271. On the other side of the ball, the Commodores rank eighth in the SEC in PPG allowing 17.2, third in rushing yards per game with 79.6, and tenth in passing yards per game with 199.2.
The Vandy offense is led by returning starter Diego Pavia, who is in his second year at Vanderbilt after starting his career with a season in junior college before spending two seasons with New Mexico State. Pavia is currently the Commodores' leading passer and rusher with 1,211 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions while tacking on 294 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The Commodores offense also features a pair of explosive running backs, each with four touchdowns on the season in Sedrick Alexander, and Makhilyn Young. Alexander currently is rushing for 5.3 yards per carry and has been the featured running back with 43 carries on the season while Young has been in the backup role, averaging 10.6 yards per carry on just 20 carries.
Alabama returns home coming off a big win over Georgia last week. After a brutal loss to Florida State in week one, the Crimson Tide have kicked it into gear going 3-0 since with wins of 73-0 over UL-Monroe, 38-14 over Wisconsin and 24-21 over Georgia. The Crimson Tide kicked off their SEC schedule last week against Georgia and have tough stretch through the end of the season with five of their final seven games coming against ranked opponents.
The Alabama offense currently ranks sixth in the SEC with 38 PPG, 14th in rushing yards per game with 122 and third in passing yards per game with 321.8. On the other side of the ball the Alabama defense ranks fourth in the SEC in total defense allowing 274 yards per game, seventh in PPG with 16.5, 14th in rushing yards per game with 160.5 and first in passing yards per game with 113.5.
The Crimson Tide offense is led by senior quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson has been extremely impressive since a less-than-stellar opening game. On the season, Simpson has thrown for 1,138 yards with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions, while adding two rushing touchdowns. A key returning starter last week was running back Jam Miller. He was the starting running back a year ago and missed the first three games of the season due to a dislocated collarbone. Miller should add a steadier hand to a Crimson Tide backfield that has struggled to establish the running game to this point, while also adding a massive piece in pass protection to a team that allowed just one pressure in last week's win over Georgia.
The Alabama wide receiver group is loaded this season featuring star wideout Ryan Williams, an extremely reliable and versatile Germie Bernard, and a talented big bodied transfer wideout in Isaiah Horton. Through four games, the three wideouts have reeled in nine of Alabama's 15 total passing touchdowns.
Alabama vs Vanderbilt Expert Pick: Over 55.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Predictions for Week 6
This is a tough one to predict, given the volatility of Alabama so far in 17 games under Kalen DeBoer. To this point, Alabama under DeBoer is 9-0 at home and 3-4 on the road (and one neutral site loss). Alabama is at home for this one and likely should be fired up and ready to go for this game given the revenge factor from last year's loss to Vanderbilt. Will that be enough for Alabama to cover a 10.5 point spread? I'm not sure.
One thing that has been proven to be true is that the Vanderbilt defense has been vulnerable to the passing attack while the Alabama defense has been vulnerable to the running game. In both cases, these vulnerabilities match the strengths of the opposing offenses; the over looks to be the move in this one.
Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 28
