College Football Picks: Wisconsin vs. Michigan Best Bets
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The Wisconsin Badgers travel to Ann Arbor, Michigan to take on the Michigan Wolverines in a classic Big Ten battle. The Badgers enter with a 2-2 record, having lost their past two games, while Michigan is 3-1 entering this week. Wisconsin will look to get back on track after a recent rough patch and Michigan will look to stay unbeaten in the conference.
Wisconsin vs. Michigan Betting Odds for Week 6
Spread: Michigan -17 (Caesars Sportsbook); Wisconsin +17.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 43.5 (Caesars Sportsbook), Under 43.5 (ESPN Bet)
Money line: Michigan -900 (Caesars Sportsbook), Wisconsin +700 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
This line opened at -16.5 in favor of Michigan and has risen a point in most places, over a semi-important number of 17. That movement is no doubt a reaction to the Badgers' poor performance over their past couple of games. The total opened at 41.5 and has since moved to 43.5 in most places. Again, likely a reaction to the struggles of the Badger defense the past couple of games.
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Wisconsin vs. Michigan Betting Picks for Week 6
It's no secret that the Badgers are struggling this year, but the depths of which are yet to be determined. A loss on the road to Alabama is nothing to hang your head about, and losing at home to a Maryland team that could be good this year isn't necessarily embarrassing, but the manner in which the Badgers lost that game was troubling. Wisconsin entered as a double-digit favorite, but looked the part of a big underdog the entire game, eventually losing 27-10.
The problems for Wisconsin are all over the field. The offense is totally inept right now, and half the defense is flat-out terrible. The only thing that's working right now is the run defense, which ranks first in the nation in yards per game. Then again, when you can throw at will against them, there's really no need to run. The offense ranks 87th in passing yards per game, which, when you factor in the game script of the past two weeks, looks even worse. The run game has been even worse, ranking 109th in the nation.
Michigan, meanwhile, looks much better on paper. The Wolverines are lacking balance early in the season, but they've managed to get through by running the ball and stopping the run. Michigan ranks 10th in the country in yards allowed on the ground per game and 8th in the country in rushing yards gained per game. It's not exactly a recipe for long-term success, however, as the pass defense has struggled a bit, and they've got almost nothing going through the air on offense to start the season. In other words, it looks a lot like it did this past year.
A couple of things are going to determine how this game plays out. Wisconsin's ability to get anything going on offense and Michigan's success rate on the ground. As mentioned prior, the Badgers have been able to stop the run this year, and that's been Michigan's only weapon through four games. If they can stop the run, this could get ugly for Michigan...if the Badgers can get their offense going, which I'm not sure they can this week.
Wisconsin's inability to score at Alabama wasn't really concerning, but only finding the endzone once at home against Maryland is definitely a concern. This may not be a national championship-level defense from Michigan, but it's good enough to completely shut down this Badger offense. The Badgers have had two weeks to get ready for this game, and if this were just about any other version of the Badgers from the past 25 years, I'd be nervous if I were Michigan, but this might be the worst team from Madison that we've seen in a long time.
Michigan is not yet a complete team, but scoring 30 points on the road at Nebraska two weeks ago might have unlocked something. I think Michigan plays a complete game on both sides and covers this number.
Michigan vs. Wisconsin Expert Pick: Michigan -17.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)
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Wisconsin vs. Michigan Predictions for Week 6
As mentioned earlier, Wisconsin has done one thing well this year, and that's stop the run. I think the Badgers will actually have success initially in stopping the run, but this is the week that Michigan finds some success through the air. Wisconsin is going to throw everything it has at the run game, leaving a leaky secondary even more vulnerable. If Michigan finds any sort of passing game, it will then reopen the running lanes, turning this game into a blowout.
There is a scenario where the Wolverines simply can't take advantage of everything Wisconsin wants to give them through the air, in which case, this game stays close, but I don't see it playing out that way. Even if Wisconsin manages to slow down Michigan on offense, there's still the issue of how the Badgers will score points.
Michigan 34 - Wisconsin 10
