College Football Best Bets: Miami vs Florida State
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It's Week 6, and it's a giant rivalry game in the Sunshine State, as the No. 3 Miami Hurricanes (4-0) meet the No. 18/19 Florida State Seminoles (3-1).
Back in the day, this game used to mean everything. I lived in South Florida in the 1980's during Miami's heyday. You know, "like the U in the 80's". There was something about the old Orange Bowl. It was stinky, rusty, falling apart, but it was loud, and it was intimidating for visitors. There was a mystique, and the Miami Hurricanes were almost unbeatable. In fact, they had an NCAA-record 58-game home-field win streak, which ended on Sept. 24, 1994. I was actually at that game when Washington came to town, led by Damon Huard, Napoleon Kaufman and Lawyer Milloy, stunning Ray Lewis, Warren Sapp and company.
One time, I was simply wearing a Florida State hat. I was spat upon by a Miami fan. I wasn't doing anything, but that's how the fans treated each other, unfortunately. I have seen a lot worse inside and outside of the stadium, too, thankfully not involving me. This game was the entire season, and it was must-watch TV. Over the years, the game lost a little luster, but thankfully, both teams are coming back.
This latest installment is at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee on Saturday night, with kickoff scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Miami vs Florida State Betting Odds for Week 6
Spread: Miami -4 (Caesars Sportsbook); Florida State +4.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Total: Over 53.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook); Under 54.5 (ESPN Bet)
Moneyline: Miami -180 (FanDuel Sportsbook); Florida State +165 (BetMGM)
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Miami vs Florida State Betting Picks for Week 6
This game lost a little bit of its luster when the Seminoles were upended at Virginia last Friday night in overtime, 46-38. The Seminoles were a 7-point favorite, but they were unable to stop the Hoos. Were they caught looking ahead to the Canes game, maybe?
Miami was off last week, and it is 3-for-3 against Florida schools to date. Last time out on Sept. 20, the Hurricanes dropped the Florida Gators, 26-7, covering as 8.5-point favorites at Hard Rock Stadium. In fact, Miami has had four home games, and this is its first road trip of the season. Still, it doesn't leave the state of Florida, and won't do so until Nov. 1 at SMU. After that, it isn't until the penultimate game of the season Nov. 22 at Virginia Tech when Miami leaves the borders again, before wrapping up Nov. 29 at Pitt.
Miami leads the all-time series 36-33, although since Oct. 9, 2010, the Seminoles have won 10 of the past 15 meetings. Miami won last season, 36-14, kicking FSU while it was down. That victory by the Canes snapped a 3-game win streak in the series by the 'Noles, however. Miami hasn't won in Tallahassee since Nov. 2, 2019, a 27-10 victory that season.
Looking at the numbers, FSU is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past four meetings, with the Under cashing in four in a row, and eight of the past 10 meetings since Oct. 10, 2015. Miami has covered four of the past five meetings in Tallahassee, and the Under has cashed in seven straight meetings at 'The Doak'. The Under is 12-2 in the past 14 in the series, too.
Miami QB Carson Beck, who transferred in from Georgia for a wheelbarrow full of cash, has paid big dividends. He has completed 72.6 percent of his pass attempts for 972 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions through four games, and he had a rushing score, too.
In the run game, RB Mark Fletcher Jr. has 388 yards and five touchdowns on 66 attempts, good for a healthy 5.9 yards per carry (YPC). WR Malachi Toney leads the way with 22 catches for 268 yards and a touchdown, while WR CJ Daniels has three receiving scores.
Florida State QB Tommy Castellanos has done a decent job, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 848 yards, four touchdowns and three picks, while running for 217 yards and four more scores. He is just off the pace for the team lead in rushing yards, behind RB Gavin Sawchuk, who has 234 yards and six scores, while posting a healthy 5.6 YPC. WR Micahi Danzy has 173 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just five attempts, too, while also hauling in seven receptions for 168 yards.
I can see Miami going to Florida State and winning, while the Seminoles keep it close. Florida State has a fabulous offense, and normally, it has a great defense. Just ask Alabama, who left Tally with an L back in August. Take the Seminoles with the points. However, the best bet in this game is going with the Under.
Miami vs Florida State Expert Pick: Under 54.5 (ESPN Bet)
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Miami vs Florida State Predictions for Week 6
Even after the upset loss at Virginia, Florida State is still allowing just 296.0 total yards per game, and 184.5 passing yards per outing. The defense has allowed only 19.0 PPG, too, which still ranks 42nd in the nation.
The offense has a gaudy 600.0 total yards per game, and it is No. 1 in the nation with 53.0 PPG. However, those numbers are a bit skewed because FSU dropped 77 on East Texas A&M of the FCS, and 66 against Kent State in a guaranteed game. It won't be able to go for nearly that much against the Canes, who have played several marquee games to date.
Miami topped Notre Dame 27-24 in the opener as a 3-point underdog, it routed a ranked USF team, 49-12, as a 17.5-point favorite, while stymying the Gators 26-7 last time out. The Canes are certainly not going to be fazed by another big game.
The Canes have cashed in three of four games against the number, while splitting the Over-Under in those four contests.
It's Miami's first road game of the season, and we'll see how it deals with that adversity. Miami should do enough to win, but going low on the total, again, is the best play here.
