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Chris' Picks
Scoring last week as 1-4 feels wrong. I hit Oklahoma! But maybe you didn't as the line moved up and my actul ticket hung on by the skin of its teeth. I also could have sworn I offered up Ohio (-13.5) over Bowling Green, which smashed, but nope, it was Nebraska failing to hammer LaTech. Further, my alma mater (South Carolina) covered by half a point to my detriment. That's an ugly 1-4 week that honestly should have been, and arguably was, better. Oh well, time to turn it around (I hope). I've got Louisville-N.C. State as my one-game assignment, so I'll leave that out here, but I do have a distinct lean.
Georgia Tech (-22.5) vs. Bowling Green
This line opened at 20, so the opportunity may have already been missed, similar to last week. But I'm impressed with what I've seen from Georgia Tech, particularly offensively. Jamal Haynes has been tremendous in the backfield, and Haynes King has a solid 11:2 TD:INT ratio. I believe they'll score plenty enough to cover the high number. All three of Bowling Green's losses have been by double-digits, the last two being north of this number, where they've scored only 13 points. It could be a trap for the Jackets coming off a road win at Wake and having Miami on deck next week, but they need wins to prove they are trending in the right direction and will be focused enough to blow the Falcons out.
South Florida (+3.5) at Navy
This line doesn't make sense to me, which probably means Navy wins by two-plus scores. We know the Midshipmen will run, currently ranking 11th with 223.3 ypg. And while an average of 4.7 per carry is solid, they've only scored four touchdowns, sputtering out in the red zone by being one-dimensional. And guess what the Bulls have excelled at? Stuffing the run, allowing just 88.0 ypg and 3.1 ypc. They bounced back from a near miss against Alabama to beat Rice convincingly as home underdogs, so why not back them again?
LSU (-2.5) at Mississippi
For me, this is a case where the line still seems to reflect LSU for their loss to Florida State rather than what we thought it would be in the preseason. They are dynamic on both sides of the ball, which ultimately tells me they can match points with Ole Miss if the defense falters but also earn more stops than their adversary. The Rebels have injury issues in their wide receivers, and the usage and success, or lack thereof, from RB Quinshon Judkins, is puzzling and noteworthy. I don't expect an Ole Miss victory, and with the current number under a field goal, I'll bite.
Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Virginia Tech
Two bad teams, so it's hard to have great confidence in either. But I'm going to back the better-coached side with the better lines. Both teams have questions at quarterback and a lack of playmakers out wide, so I'm expecting points to have to come via the rushing attack. And here's a shock: both offenses stink there, too. But Pittsburgh has been elite in stuffing it, allowing just 2.9 ypc. Virginia Tech, however, has not. The Hokies rank 125th against the run, allowing 212.5 ypg and 5.1 ypc, with 179 yards by Purdue being a season-low. Virginia Tech also hasn't scored more than 17 in their last three. Pittsburgh won't need a huge scoring total to cover.
Appalachian State (-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
App State is averaging 35.3 ppg, and ULM is averaging 14.7 ppg. If only it were that simple. I'm a little worried about the Mountaineers' travel, as they lost at Wyoming last week and are now a good bit away from home again. But so long as we can get this under two touchdowns, I think they'll have enough juice to overcome any potential slow start. And that's possible with the WarHawks coming off a bye week and having extra prep. But the Mountaineers have won three straight in this series, with the lowest margin being 18 and an average of 31.3. Here's hoping that trend continues!
Last week: 1-4; Season: 8-12
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Greg's Picks
A nice start and a frustrating finish led to a 2-3 record this past, and that puts me right back at .500 for the season. Not the worst place to be, but after a 2-0 start this past week, I was hoping for more.
The week started on a high note with an easy Wisconsin cover over Purdue. FSU followed that up with a cover, albeit not easy at all, over Clemson. It was at that point that the frustration kicked in. Anytime you have a high total, you need both teams to chip in, and unfortunately, the Colorado Buffaloes just did not show up this past Saturday. The second loss was on Mississippi, which was covering for much of the game but faded down the stretch. The final loss hurt the most, and if you were to look at the final score, you wouldn't think that was the case. Even though the Gophers lost straight up, they were actually covering the number for most of the game but completely fell apart down the stretch.
All lines courtesy of DraftKings
Over (73.5) USC at Colorado
Fool me once…okay, I'm taking a leap of faith here that Colorado isn't, in fact, a fraudulent team, a notion that seemed absurd to even think about prior to last week, but after that putrid performance in Eugene, we're kind of back to square one with the Buffaloes. With that said, a lot of factors were working against the Buffaloes this past week; they were on the road, in a tough environment, against the best defense they had faced to date, and they'd yet to be knocked off their pedestal. Now they've had a chance to reset and figure out where it all went wrong. While I feel they can fix the offense, the defense is beyond repair at the moment, and this is not the offense you want to face when your defense is struggling. USC will have its way on offense but will continue to struggle on defense as the Buffaloes find some of that offensive magic back at home in Boulder.
Boston College (-3.5) vs Virginia
I'll start by stating that neither of these teams is good, but I think BC has shown some signs of promise. That's not why I'm siding with the Eagles; this pick is all about timing. Last week, BC was coming off a heartbreaking loss to FSU. While some would call it a moral victory, having a chance at a major upset like that, only to lose, can have a negative effect on a team, and that's exactly what happened as the Eagles were thumped by Louisville. This week, Virginia is in that spot as the Cavaliers almost pulled out a huge upset over N.C. State this past week, but alas, they came up short. Now they hit the road to face a team they'll have trouble getting up for, and it will show.
LSU (-2.5) at Mississippi
Last week wasn't great for either of these teams as Ole Miss once again lost a big game, and LSU struggled to put away Arkansas at home. Honestly, I was more disappointed in LSU as I thought they were ready to start the ascension of the rankings, but perhaps that happens this week. Ole Miss just doesn't look like a complete team right now. The defense looks decent, but the offense has lost the punch it had last year. While LSU stumbled a bit this past week, that might actually help this in this spot, as I'm sure there was plenty to work on in practice these past few days. On paper, these teams look very similar, so this will likely come down to a few plays, plays that will be made by LSU QB Jayden Daniels.
Stanford (+27.5) vs Oregon
Sometimes, you make a pick, and although it's incredibly hard to stick with it, you do it because it's the right thing to do. In this case, there are plenty of reasons to side with Oregon; heck, the line has moved three points in its favor already, but this looks like a very tricky spot for the Ducks. For starters, they're coming off a highly emotional win over Colorado this past week. Sure, it was a blowout, but there was a lot of anticipation for that game, and you can bet that the Ducks put a lot of emotion and effort into that win. Now they have to go on the round and face lowly Stanford as a favorite of almost four TDs. It's going to be difficult to get up for this one and stay up for this one if the Ducks get up early. Oh, and did I mention that next up is a road game at No. 7 Washington? Yes, this is the definition of a sandwich game, and I'll be surprised if we see Oregon's best game this week.
Duke (+5.5) vs Notre Dame
This is a big game for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish need to bounce back after a tough loss this past week to Ohio State, but this is a huge game for Duke. Duke already passed one test earlier this season when it knocked off Clemson in the opener, and this will likely be a more difficult test for the Blue Devils, but I think they're up for it. On paper, Notre Dame probably has the edge, but I wonder they're collective state of mind after coming so close to topping OSU this past week. If Duke hadn't been in a spotlight game already this season, I might worry about its readiness for this game, but they've been through this already, and I'm expecting them to come through in another spotlight game.
Last Week: 2-3-0; Season 10-10-0
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Jeff's Picks
If you locked in Notre Dame +3 last week, you already know the cruel way that I arrived at 2-2-1 this week. Ohio State scores, time runs out, no extra point, and we cover 16-14! But wait - let's put a second back on the clock. The ball sails through the uprights, and you can almost hear the collective groan worldwide. So, we were painfully close to 3-2, and my call on Oregon -21 in my individual article came through, so I'll call Week 4 a success. Let's move on to Week 5!
Western Kentucky (-6.5) vs. Middle Tennessee State
I believe the Hilltoppers are clearly the better team in this matchup, and this spread is too narrow to ignore if you look at both teams on paper. The Blue Raiders have a lot of trouble in defending the pass, and despite a 2-2 record, Austin Reed has had considerable success in finishing drives for scores. Their defense has given up too many explosive plays, but I doubt Middle Tennessee can pull one off. The way to beat the Hilltoppers is by running the ball, and the Blue Raiders don't have enough firepower to capitalize on that deficiency. It's a high-visibility Thursday night game at home, and I think Western Kentucky will rise to the occasion.
Georgia (-14.5) @ Auburn
The Bulldogs aren't as good as the 2022 edition, but they're pretty darn close. The transition to Carson Beck hasn't been without some hiccups, but the defense is playing as well as anyone in the country. They kept their foot on the gas against UAB and sent them reeling with over 600 yards of total offense. I anticipate that they won't go to sleep against another weak opponent, and scoring against this defense will be a tall order for Hugh Freeze's squad, which is in rebuild mode. Georgia should have no problem here, and I'll wager that they take care of Auburn with a three-touchdown advantage.
James Madison (-3) vs. South Alabama
I'm going to back the Dukes once again, although my confidence was much lower when the spread was higher earlier in the week, my confidence was much lower. The three-point spread seems about right, and I think Jordan McCloud, Kaelon Black, and Reggie Brown will produce enough offense to outscore the Jaguars. The defenses for both teams aren't outstanding, and they've both allowed a lot of yardage against their opponents, but Carter Bradley and the Jaguars haven't met expectations on offense this season. I expect a high-scoring matchup, and I was very tempted to lock in FanDuel's 49.5 game total, but I will just take JMU instead.
Maryland (-14) vs. Indiana
Taulia Tagovailoa and the Terp offense is flying high this season, but I don't think it's how Maryland prevails in this one. The Hoosiers are abysmal against the run, so I think Roman Hemby will seal Indiana's fate. Hemby will also open up the passing game as well, and they'll need solid performances in both areas If Indiana's passing game sparks as it did against Louisville. Even if Indiana's offense shows signs of life, the Terps rank second in the FBS in turnover margin. A few costly errors by Indiana will put them in a hole that Marylandf's potent offense will dig for them.
UNDER 53.5 Clemson @ Syracuse
Clemson has been known to struggle in the Carrier Dome, and they'll face an unbeaten Syracuse squad. Garrett Shrader has the offense firing on all cylinders, and he has an excellent crew of playmakers. The Orange will have to rely on Shrader's arm because Clemson's run defense is one of the best in the country. They have some youth in the secondary that Shradee can exploit, but if they're forced to press for points, they could make too many mistakes to stay relevant. Garrett Riley's defense has problems of its own, and although Cade Klubnik's numbers look good on paper, it's only shown a blowup score against Charleston Southern. I think they'll end up with a win, but a slow first half will put the Under well within reach.
Last Week: 2-2-1 Season: 10-9-1
