This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
Another week and another set of results that are sure to shape the college football playoff. Sure, if you were to look at just the teams near the top, then nothing appeared to change last week, but trust me when I say, last week will have a huge impact on the final four teams selected in just a couple weeks.
Let's start at the top, where there actually wasn't much of consequence last week. Clemson stayed on top, Alabama right behind and Ohio State held its position. This is where things get interesting though. Notre Dame may have had the worst week of the bunch as losses by Temple and Stanford will affect how the committee sees the Fighting Irish. What looked like a solid road win at Temple two weeks ago, doesn't look as strong now and that much-anticipated showdown at the end of the season against Stanford won't carry as much weight as we previously thought.
Notre Dame is still currently in the mix, but that's only because there are a couple teams trailing the Irish that have yet to prove themselves.
That's where last weekend comes into play once again. Baylor had the inside track to the final-four if it could simply win-out, but that obviously didn't happen. Baylor is now out of the picture, but Oklahoma may be back in the picture. The problem for the Sooners is that its next two foes, TCU and Oklahoma State, don't carry as much weight as they once did.
Another week and another set of results that are sure to shape the college football playoff. Sure, if you were to look at just the teams near the top, then nothing appeared to change last week, but trust me when I say, last week will have a huge impact on the final four teams selected in just a couple weeks.
Let's start at the top, where there actually wasn't much of consequence last week. Clemson stayed on top, Alabama right behind and Ohio State held its position. This is where things get interesting though. Notre Dame may have had the worst week of the bunch as losses by Temple and Stanford will affect how the committee sees the Fighting Irish. What looked like a solid road win at Temple two weeks ago, doesn't look as strong now and that much-anticipated showdown at the end of the season against Stanford won't carry as much weight as we previously thought.
Notre Dame is still currently in the mix, but that's only because there are a couple teams trailing the Irish that have yet to prove themselves.
That's where last weekend comes into play once again. Baylor had the inside track to the final-four if it could simply win-out, but that obviously didn't happen. Baylor is now out of the picture, but Oklahoma may be back in the picture. The problem for the Sooners is that its next two foes, TCU and Oklahoma State, don't carry as much weight as they once did. TCU is ravaged with key injuries, so a win over the Horned Frogs this week will do little to bolster the Sooner's resume. A win over Oklahoma State in two weeks would bolster that resume, but then we are back to the debate on whether or not a one-loss Big-12 team belongs in the final-four.
There was no shake-up in the Big Ten last week, but we are one week closer to a match-up between unbeaten teams in the Big Ten championship game, which would surely result in a playoff berth for the winner.
There is still plenty to be decided, so there's no reason to be up in arms about anything at this point. The great thing about the current system is that pseudo playoff games are already upon us. It's single-elimination the rest of the way.
As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with post-article each week. You can follow me at @gregvara.
CREAM OF THE CROP (Week: 3-1; Season: 17-19)
Saturday
Illinois at Minnesota: As I mentioned last week, Minnesota has played really well under its new head coach, covering all three games. I expect that trend to continue this week as there's a lot at stake with a potential bowl bid in the balance. Illinois is not quite the push over I thought it was a few weeks ago, but the Fighting Illini are going to run into a buzz saw this week.
Side: Minnesota -5
North Carolina at Virginia Tech: The Tar Heels are rolling on offense, and not even a trip to Blacksburg is going to slow them down. Virginia Tech has been tough to peg for much of the past few seasons, but it's precisely that inconsistency that works in our favor this week. You see, the Hokies played very well last week and what are the odds that they'll do it again this week?
Side: North Carolina -5.5
Mississippi State at Arkansas: Speaking of "rolling," the Hogs are on a roll, and they aren't about to slip up in this spot. Arkansas offense has been fairly strong all year, but it's the defense that I was worried about heading into last week, but no longer. If they can stop LSU in Baton Rouge, then they can slow the Bulldogs enough to cover this line.
Side: Arkansas -4
BEST OF THE REST (Week: 2-1; Season: 13-20
Saturday
Wake Forest at Clemson: There's really not much to like about Wake Forest, but this pick isn't about the Demon Deacons, it's about the Tigers. Clemson is in the driver's seat right now and style points aren't necessary, just wins. Heck, with the ACC Championship on the horizon, I wouldn't be surprised to see them sit their starters earlier than normal if they get up big.
Side: Wake Forest +29
LSU at Mississippi: I hope I didn't miss the boat on the decline of the Tigers last week. I really expected LSU to play well last week, but the Tigers had other plans. Was last week's result a sign that they've thrown in the towel on the season? We'll find out on Saturday.
Side: Mississippi -6
Notre Dame at Boston College: Style points were thought to be a thing of the past with the new four-team playoff, but they are more important than ever for Notre Dame. Boston College, meanwhile, might have the worst offense in college football.
Side: Notre Dame -15
PASSing THOUGHTS (Week: 1-2; Season: 11-16)
Saturday
Baylor at Oklahoma State: There seems to be this perception that the OSU bubble is going to burst at any moment, and while I don't think the Cowboys will get past Oklahoma in two weeks, I do think they pass this test. Baylor's championship hopes went up in smoke just last week and I doubt the Bears will bring their "A" game this week.
Side: OSU pick
Michigan State at Ohio State: What was supposed to be a de facto playoff game a few weeks ago, is now a survival game for OSU. MSU's had a week to get over its lone loss and the Spartans should be back up for this game. I don't think they win, but they should put up a fight.
Side: MSU +14
UCLA at Utah: It would be easy to pick against UCLA in this spot after blowing it last week at home to Washington State, but with Devontae Booker out for Utah, UCLA should have a big advantage. Utah's early season momentum is long gone, and the Bruins will take advantage.
Side: UCLA +1.5
