This article is part of our College Football Picks series.
I was doing something around the house the other day with the "sports leader" in the background and I thought I overheard one of the talking heads mention something about Florida State being out of the top 4. I didn't pay much attention at the time, thinking I misheard the statement.
A few days later I looked up the national rankings and there was FSU, right atop of the rankings. My confusion grew, until I noticed something called the "FPI." As avid college football fans, I'm sure you are all aware of this index, but until a few hours ago, I was not.
Upon further review, it turns out I wasn't missing much. For those who don't know, it's a predictive index that takes the results to date along with the predicted results of the games yet to come and outputs the top-25 teams in order. Now, the top-4 is all the index is really interested in because this predictive machine was built to help us, the layman college football fans, figure out which teams will be in the playoff at season's end.
It's all fine and dandy, but there's one problem ... the final four spots will be determined by a committee ... made up of people, not computers.
With that in mind, I've decided to create the GVI. I'll let you figure out the acronym. Anyhow, the GVI is predicting that there's no sense in predicting the outcome of college football games one week in advance, so why
I was doing something around the house the other day with the "sports leader" in the background and I thought I overheard one of the talking heads mention something about Florida State being out of the top 4. I didn't pay much attention at the time, thinking I misheard the statement.
A few days later I looked up the national rankings and there was FSU, right atop of the rankings. My confusion grew, until I noticed something called the "FPI." As avid college football fans, I'm sure you are all aware of this index, but until a few hours ago, I was not.
Upon further review, it turns out I wasn't missing much. For those who don't know, it's a predictive index that takes the results to date along with the predicted results of the games yet to come and outputs the top-25 teams in order. Now, the top-4 is all the index is really interested in because this predictive machine was built to help us, the layman college football fans, figure out which teams will be in the playoff at season's end.
It's all fine and dandy, but there's one problem ... the final four spots will be determined by a committee ... made up of people, not computers.
With that in mind, I've decided to create the GVI. I'll let you figure out the acronym. Anyhow, the GVI is predicting that there's no sense in predicting the outcome of college football games one week in advance, so why try two months in advance. I realize it doesn't give us anything to talk about, but then again, if you don't have anything important to say ...
I mentioned prior to last week that something was amiss with my top plays and that trend continued again last week. A big goose-egg at the top and solid at the bottom again. I can't say if that trend will continue, but there might be something to it after five weeks of success with my Passing Thoughts and little to no success with my top plays. Fairly warned. On a positive note, even with a poor week, I'm still five games over on the year.
As always, I'll tweet any insights I come up with post-article each week. You can follow me at @gregvara.
Cream of the Crop: Week: (0-4; Season: 1-10)
Saturday
North Texas at Indiana: North Texas put up 77 points last week, albeit against Nicholls State. But still, you put up 77 on anyone and you've got some talent. Indiana is coming off a poor outing last week against a conference foe, and the Hoosiers will be looking to take out some frustration. Of course, they aren't really capable of taking out any frustration on defense, so it will be the offense going off this week. In short, expect this non-conference game to get out of hand like Indiana games have tended to do lately.
Total: Over 61.5
Texas Tech at Kansas State: Looking purely at the numbers, there's no conceivable way the Kansas State doesn't put up at least 40 points. If we put that number in the mid-40s, all Texas Tech needs to do is score in the mid-20s to get over this total. This is still Texas Tech, the Red Raiders can put up points. Enough to keep up with the Wildcats? Probably not, but if each team contributes, this game should easily go over the number.
Total: Over 69
Oklahoma at TCU: I'm not quite sure how good TCU is at this point, and Oklahoma is always a mystery at this time of the season, but something looks different about this Oklahoma team. The number is very reasonable as well, so as long as the Sooners don't get behind early, they should be fine.
Side: Oklahoma -4.5
Michigan at Rutgers: Did you see Michigan last week? Have you seen them this season? The Wolverines are as vulnerable as they've ever, and Rutgers is just good enough to take advantage. Unless Michigan has something in reserve that I've yet to see, I just don't see them competing.
Side: Rutgers -3
Best of the Rest (Week 1-2; Season: 6-6)
Friday
Utah State at BYU: Utah State has been a thorn in the side of BYU in recent years, but this one appears to be a bit more lopsided than anything we've seen in the last five years or so. The Cougars have been less than impressive at home this season, but that's all the more reason to take them in this spot. They aren't looking past anyone at this point.
Side: BYU -21
Saturday
Wisconsin at Northwestern: The Wildcats have struggled as the favorite this year, but this is a spot where I think they can thrive. Wisconsin struggled as a home favorite for much of the game last week and that could be a sign of things to come. On the flip side, Northwestern played its best game of the season by far last week.
Side: Northwestern +9.5
Stanford at Notre Dame: I wasn't a big fan of Stanford covering a medium-sized number last week on the road at Washington, but this number shouldn't be a problem. Stanford's had issues on offense this season, but the defense is sound, and the Cardinal should be able to rely on that defense to win this game. Notre Dame has looked impressive this season, but this is a huge step up in competition.
Side: Stanford -1.5
PASSing Thoughts (Week: 4-1; Season: 19-5)
Thursday
Arizona at Oregon: The Ducks haven't been themselves at home this season ... yet; but you know it's coming. What better time to unleash the hounds then at home, in front of a national television audience against an undefeated conference rival? The spread is large, but Oregon will have no problem scoring on a suspect Arizona D.
Side: Oregon -23.5
Saturday
Wake Forest at Florida State: Historically, top-5 teams at season's end covered more often than not during the year. With that in mind, FSU is 0-3 against the number this season. The Seminoles are likely to be in the top 5 at the end of the season, so at some point, the ATS number has to turn around.
Side: FSU -33.5
Ohio State at Maryland: Ohio State looked solid last week against Cincinnati, but that was at home in front of a friendly crowd. I'm not so sure the Buckeyes have come far enough to cover a large number on the road against a decent conference foe.
Side: Maryland +8.5
LSU at Auburn: LSU is not a team that you want to underestimate and if not for the loss two weeks back, this number would be comfortably under a TD, as it is, the number is more than seven. Auburn is a team that I have underestimated one too many times over the last 18 months, but I'm not too worried about fading it here.
Side: LSU +7.5
Alabama at Mississippi: I'm told that Mississippi is much improved this year. I've heard that before. There's a difference between "much-improved" and "ready for Alabama."
Side: Alabama -6.5
